FanPost

It's Geno or Dion. Period.

The Jaguars have myriad needs entering the 2013 NFL draft. They could use a safety, a cornerback, maybe a couple of offensive line prospects – the list of needs is undoubtedly extensive. At some point during the draft, and in the flurry of post-draft UDFA recruiting phone calls, the opportunity will come to address many of these needs. However, what we really want to know is which of those needs will get addressed with the second overall pick?

The problem with having a top ten, top five or top two pick seems to me to be the risk of a swing-and-miss on premium talent to address a premium position. If you take a guy in the seventh round and he doesn't work out you’re probably not going to cripple the franchise. It can be assumed that’s because the variances in talent level at that point during the selection process have more or less smoothed out to the point that you’re picking from a very homogeneous group of options. They’re all likely to be average or below-average NFL players, or not make a team at all. There are outliers to be sure, but they're called outliers for a reason.

Funny thing is that you have the same problem with the second overall pick. You’re picking from a more or less homogeneous group of options – it’s just that the talent is so much better. If you swing and miss on a seventh round linebacker who doesn't make it out of camp, but passed on a linebacker available at your pick that becomes a pretty decent special teamer you haven’t exactly set your team back several years. Conversely, if you pick a guy at second overall that plays at replacement level for several years and you passed on a talent available during your selection that goes on to be a hall of famer well, you’re screwed.

Enter the position value concept. It turns out that teams don’t really select tight ends in the first ten picks. It’s happened twice since 2002. They also don’t select guards or centers. Nor do they select long snappers. Sorry right tackles and slot receivers, you’re not going top ten either. If you look at the count of players drafted by position since 2002 you’ll see teams are far more likely to draft a quarterback with a top ten pick than a safety. Using the table below you can get a feel for the probability of a position being selected over the past eleven drafts.

*Top ten picks only, by draft year

Draft Year

QB

DE

DT

S

LB

WR

CB

RB

OT

Other

Total

2002

2

1

2

1

0

0

1

0

3

0

10

2003

2

0

3

0

1

2

1

0

1

0

10

2004

2

0

0

1

0

3

2

0

1

1

10

2005

1

0

0

0

0

3

3

3

0

0

10

2006

2

1

0

2

2

0

0

1

1

1

10

2007

1

2

1

1

0

2

0

1

2

0

10

2008

1

3

2

0

2

0

0

1

1

0

10

2009

2

1

1

0

1

2

0

0

3

0

10

2010

1

0

3

1

1

0

1

1

2

0

10

2011

3

1

0

0

2

2

1

0

1

0

10

2012

3

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

10

TotalCtChk

20

9

13

7

10

15

10

8

16

2

110

TotalPerChk

18%

8%

12%

6%

9%

14%

9%

7%

15%

2%

100%

So you can basically give up on the Jaguars drafting another punter with the second overall pick. I think. God, I hope. But, this helps us determine the scope of possibilities for which position may be more likely than others to be addressed.

However, we need to do some additional work. Not all positions are created equal. This is the lesson of this handy table. A long snapper is not as valuable to a team as a left tackle and we can derive that from team draft behavior with top ten picks. Top ten picks represent the greatest investment for a team throughout the draft, both in pure monetary terms and opportunity cost, and we can infer position value from what’s acquired when the stakes are highest.

Now the fuzzy part. We need to talk about team needs. So, we can do a simple yes/no on whether the Jaguars have a need at the position. Not terribly scientific, I know, but it can still point us in the right direction. In the table below you’ll see I've added a layer of need score and position impact. The need score is subjective no doubt and the position impact score is derived from the draft data.

Draft Year

QB

DE

DT

S

LB

WR

CB

RB

OT

Other

Total

2002

2

1

2

1

0

0

1

0

3

0

10

2003

2

0

3

0

1

2

1

0

1

0

10

2004

2

0

0

1

0

3

2

0

1

1

10

2005

1

0

0

0

0

3

3

3

0

0

10

2006

2

1

0

2

2

0

0

1

1

1

10

2007

1

2

1

1

0

2

0

1

2

0

10

2008

1

3

2

0

2

0

0

1

1

0

10

2009

2

1

1

0

1

2

0

0

3

0

10

2010

1

0

3

1

1

0

1

1

2

0

10

2011

3

1

0

0

2

2

1

0

1

0

10

2012

3

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

10

TotalCtChk

20

9

13

7

10

15

10

8

16

2

110

TotalPerChk

18%

8%

12%

6%

9%

14%

9%

7%

15%

2%

100%

Jax Need Y/N

1

1

1

1

1

0

1

0

0

0

Position Impact

10

6

7

5

6

8

6

5

9

4

Need Rank vs. Impact

11

7

8

6

7

No Need

7

No Need

No Need

No Need

Taking a look at what we get after layering need and impact into the data we can get a feel for how need aligns with the frequency each position is drafted in recent years. But Houston, we have another problem.

Problem 1a: Dion Jordan

Problem 1b: LEO & Gus Bradley’s Defense

Problem Description: What the hell is Dion? A defensive end? Maybe. A linebacker? Yeah, yeah he does that too. A cornerback? Well, he does cover receivers and tight ends sometimes. So he breaks our model because he really can’t be grouped into one of these draft positions, a limitation of our dataset. And what’s a LEO? Well, that’s easy; it’s a hand-on-the-ground-but-sometimes-standing-up-mobile-pass-rushing-edge-setting-coverage-capable-athlete. Unfortunately, that breaks our model, too.

But our problem (named Dion Jordan) may tell us something else about who the Jaguars might not select with the second overall pick. Other possible premium talents at impact positions (Star Lotulelei, Ziggy Ansah, Sharrif Floyd, Dee Milliner) all fit relatively nicely into one of our categories. Dion Jordan stretches across, roughly speaking, three of them. Follow me here – couldn't we say that in Gus’s defense the LEO position represents elements of value typically derived from a linebacker, defensive end, defensive lineman (and heck even a little nickel corner) and thus represents a position that would carry a significantly higher collective impact than any of those positions? What if we combined the “Need Rank vs. Impact” points we assigned in the table above for defensive end, linebacker and defensive tackle to get an idea of the LEO impact factor?

So who are the Jaguars going to draft with the second overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft? If we allow for a little leeway here and there in our model you could say there’s a more than decent probability they walk a card up to the podium with either the name of a quarterback or the name of a LEO.

Caveats

**If anyone cares about how the impact score got calculated I'll respond to comments about it. I thin it's representative of the frequency of position selection but not necessarily a good weighted score. Should be good enough to represent the frequency data in the need vs. impact score, though.

**I'm not a talent evaluator so if another LEO (i.e Mingo?) grades out higher I suppose you could make the same argument. I'll leave that to the talent guys. Same on QB.

FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of the authors of Big Cat Country or SB Nation.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Big Cat Country

You must be a member of Big Cat Country to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Big Cat Country. You should read them.

Join Big Cat Country

You must be a member of Big Cat Country to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Big Cat Country. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker