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Geno Smith "Confutative"

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Geno Smith "Confutative"


It is my opinion that the NFL Draft process as it pertains to the quarterback position is in need of greater perspective. There is a increased amount of group think and media hyperbole that reduces the quality of the evaluations of these players.

My favorite evaluators who I think "gets it" is Greg Cosell of NFL films. He doesn't buy into media spin or who has been talked about more on ESPN.... or who they suggest isn't great (remember prior too the combine Cam Newton wasn't ranked very high as per the major networks). Mr. Cosell only evaluates based on what he sees on the tape. I model my approach on this. This has lead me to have much different opinions of prospects and even at times disagreements with Greg Cosell himself. This is a healthy evaluation environment for productive exchange of ideas..... this isn't however how the world works. Between social dynamics and perspectives... between media spin.... between old vices that fans can't let go or relate too.

In essence Greg Cosell is actually telling you to look for yourself as he shares his opinion on what he sees on film. My opinion is simply that, my opinion. However if I may share with you what I see on film and then maybe you can go back and connect you're own dots.... scouting reports aren't facts it is only opinion.... the very nature of which is subjective in nature. Experienced opinions should be heeded, but remember the context of it is still opinion, including mine.

I want to share with you my journey this "draft season" on this prospect Geno Smith.

Geno Smith Confutative (via shankdiddy3)


Geno Smith Confutative (via shankdiddy3)


firmly believe in what Greg Cosell of NFL films suggested when evaluating a quarterback on film (not talking about interviews and off the field evaluations just skill sets in between the white lines) …..

Pay attention to skill sets NOT these factors as a primary source of evaluation's

1. wins and losses

2. conference they played in

3. type of offensive system they ran

4. stats

These areas need further context and can not stand alone without film to support any negative or positive extrapolation.

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My evaluation process is 2 part...

A. does a quarterback throw with anticipation with accuracy.

B. Do they have dynamic pocket command? … as defined by the following

1. Able to maintain eye level down field regardless of what is happening (feel the rush not look at the rush). Can a passer slide in the pocket and climb the pocket while NOT looking at the rush at all.

2. Can a passer maintain his passing profile (ready to throw it and remain on balance) and if extending the play by moving can they reload (get back on balance)

3. Does a passers level of play drop off significantly when they are pressured? Or can a passer maintain a high level of play vs pressure.

4. (bonus) have the ability to extend the play.

5. (bonus) have the ability to make plays with their legs.

Many laughed at me when I said Cam Newton was MORE NFL ready than anyone could dare give him credit for… AND that Blaine Gabbert would be a bust and I based it on my research as it related to pocket command and throwing with anticipation.

What i note is that Newton looks like what many claim Gabbert is....and Gabbert looks like what many say Newton is

One thing no one wants to talk about with Newton...pocket presence. He isn't rattled ...he isn't scared...when all hell is breaking down around him he is calm. He is very decisive and makes good choices with the football. And against the blitz his completion % went UP to 70%!!!!...watch any video of him and you note that IN THE POCKET he remains calm and focus down the field...now watch Gabbert and you will see a QB that has happy feet and reads one side of the field and takes off...you will see a qb that doesn't "feel the rush" and looks at the rush....Newton doesn't do that his focus is down field the entire time and he feels the rush. This is the difference between being Joey Harrington or Phillp Rivers...infact this is the NUMBER ONE SKILL SET of all franchise quarterbacks. You can't read any defence or apply any of you're so called football knowledge if you don't instinctively know how to focus down field with you're eyes at all times and "feel the rush" instead of "looking at the rush"....this in my humble opinion is the single most important reason why i think Gabbert isn't ready and why surprizingly Newton is more advance than anyone is willing to give him credit for.

My point in bringing this into the discussion isn't about these players. As much as it is about how film can cut through media hyperbole. This was my opinion on Mar 31 2011.

Prior to 2012 draft I projected that Robert Griffin III would be MORE NFL ready than Andrew Luck from the stand point of "ability to respond to pressure". I projected in my fan post how Andrew Luck was more prone to turnovers based on evaluation on film of how he respond to pressure to give the following stats context...

"Andrew Luck was sacked 23 times in his career at Stanford. RG3 was sacked 79 times in his career. Yet Griffin makes less mistakes with the football while under a lot more pressure and throwing the ball 128 more career passing attempts than Luck…. 17 int for RG3 and 22 for Luck…. how is this possible? How can you throw less int while under more pressure with more volume of attempts too make mistakes on….? Everyone that is pretty descent at math think about that for a moment… RG3 under significantly MORE pressure yet makes less mistakes while throwing the ball more. And we aren’t talking about dinkin and dunking we are talking about a lot of down field high degree of difficulty throws by RG3."

My system of looking at responds to pressure doesn't use stats. I use film, however I did look at film to give these stats context and what I found was that Griffin innately dealt with pressure better than Luck. Which at that point was a out of the box statement to make considering how the media spin said he was the best QB come into the NFL since the "Bill Cosby Show".

Results..... Luck lead the NFL in turnovers. Griffin head 5 interceptions on the season (12 fumbles 2 given up... 10 related to read option oriented exchanges)

In my above post I also said the following.....

"I want to expand on this "instinctive" trait in reference to the Pocket Matrix traits 1 and 3. This is like driving a car really. If you look away to tune you're radio or turn on you're heat while driving on the free way once you're eyes meet the road again you're vehicle will have traveled a significant distance pending on you're speed. This is the DEFINING REASON why 1 and 3 on the pocket matrix are critical. If a quarterback takes his eyes off of receivers and developing patterns (eyes off of the road). That quarterback will have moments where they miss a receiver as they are breaking open. Or worse a defenders reaction is missed. All because of that quarterbacks eyes leaving his progressions just for that instant to look at pressure. This prevents a dynamic passing attack and defines Colt McCoys Struggles. Not because it has ANYTHING to do with his ability to throw a football. But because his eyes come off of the road"...... this negatively impacts anticipation throws.

How does this apply to Geno Smith?

Because of these skill sets … being able to throw with anticipation and being able to remain calm vs pressure while sliding in the pocket and climbing the pocket… a offense can remain in a vertical passing game. It isn't about how strong you're arm is on most downs.. it is about can you throw people open (anticipation). And you can't anticipate throws if you're eyes are leaving developing routes / coverage. Based on these standards that I have followed in projecting accurately the career path of prior draft classes. That Geno Smith grades out as the highest rated in this department that I have evaluated (managing the pocket and dealing with pressure).

I think that the NFL evaluators see Geno Smith as a risk for all the wrong reasons...

1. team success or lack there of

2. scheme he used in college

3. statistical drop from what he was early on to what he was mid season (video game numbers down to normal numbers)

4. and a lack of perspective on the game situations he faced.

This player skill set wise and perspective wise reminds of me Aaron Rodgers.

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I want to expand on the following a moment......

Pay attention to skill sets NOT these factors as a primary source of evaluations…

1. wins and losses

2. conference they played in, teams they played for or against

3. type of offensive system they ran

4. stats

1. Wins and losses are associated with quarterbacks and that is the truth no matter how you cut it. But when you are evaluating a player circumstances matter. I said this in a comment in reply to someone saying Geno Smith isn't a winner.

seriously.... i keep comparing this to Peyton Manning....and game situations

He never beat florida during his career in 4 tries

Had 134 yards passing and only one TD drive with 8 minutes left in trash time of a 42 to 17 blow out lost in his last bowl game ….. before he was replaced by Tee Martin lol.

People that are saying Geno Smith struggled big time vs K State and Texas Tech have a point…. he didn’t play at his normal level. Yet he was 51 of 88 for 421 yards 2 TD 2 int….. that isn’t great. Yet if you put it into perspective Andrew Luck had worst games than that. BUT HIS DEFENSE WASN’T AVERAGING giving up 49.1 points a game. Last year while everyone was all slobing over Luck no one paid attention to the fact that Stanford didn’t give up 21 points or more until SEVEN GAMES into the season

GAME SITUATIONS MATTER please stop pretending guys that we don’t under stand football please lol.

Example: these are the opponent scores for Stanford last year >>>> 3…14….10….19…..7……14…..21…..48(OT) ….. 13 ……30…….28……14……..41

note Stanford was 1 and 2 vs teams that scored 40 plus……. basically. All year teams averaged 19.9 freaking points a game

note WVU was 2 – 4 vs teams that scored 40 plus…… All year teams averaged 38.1 points a game (3 additional Touchdown scoring drives PER GAME MORE LOL)

If freaking Andrew Luck played for WVU he would have dealt with similar game situations and there is reason to believe if his defense was giving up the 20 MORE points a game that WVU defense gave up you would have seen him in the SAME Situations. Of which he himself was 1 and 2 in those type of game situations (where you defense isn’t stopping the other team)

PEOPLE…. i don’t deny Geno Smith didn’t look great vs Texas Tech or Vs K State. But to pretend this isn’t how football works is my issue. The truth is…. while Smith faced these type of game situations yet ONLYthrew 6 interceptions all year should stand out like a big fat red alert glaring in you're face. Because when a team is down facing teams they can’t stop the usually pattern is that your QB starts to turn the ball over left and right. THIS didn’t happen and if you are truly objectively evaluating you would note this…… and not game situations like the ones Geno Smith faced

Just ask Peyton Manning he faced it at Tennessee….. He had these say type of game situations and the story played out the same for him…. 134 yards passing and 1 TD in trash time in a 42 to 17 blowout lost.THIS IS HOW FOOTBALL WORKS LOL…. it isn’t a measurement of the QB. People using this to grip a QB are just using lazy low hanging fruit because it is a easy "he just wins" argument.

And another reply to this notion that team success or failure without acknowledging the circumstances.

Geno Smith had to overcome a lot more than these other prospects in order to win games

Show me a winner …Geno isn’t

If it was up to you then you would not have drafted Peyton Manning either by that logic. I have read your comments and it is almost like a few people believe that Smith is all 11 players and circumstances don’t matter.

They gave up a AVERAGE of 38.1 points a GAME….that is a AVERAGE lol. He walks off the bus down 30 points… sorry but the truth is when you see a team give up that many points true students of the game look directly at the quarterback position and EXPECT a high turnover ratio….. because it is clear you are in a bunch of known passing situations…. it is clear you are playing catch up from the start… it is clear that facing this your turnovers should SOAR!!!!… but it didn’t. Infact it is incredible that he only had 5 INT during that 5 game losing streck…. .but of course you will just say "he isn’t a winner" and ignore facts…. like WVU giving up 49 points or more in 4 of those 5 games… you will ignore the pure math he had to over come in order to have ended that 5 game stretch with 5 wins (he would have literally had to have passed for 60 TD and around 5500 yards to just have had a CHANCE in those games)

Being a Ex Naval instructor I am use to solving problems. I am use to looking at the moving parts and determining the next step in the process it will take to come to a answer. And as I look at the common them here when it comes to this line of thinking >>>> "Geno Smith isn't a winner"….. it leaves me questioning objectivity and if these opinions have a agenda behind them… In real life you can’t look at the entire system if it doesn't work and say "throw it away"… you have to problem solve and discover the true issues. You have to acknowledge circumstances in order to understand the context of events….. the issue with WVU wasn't Geno Smith.

Ask Drew Brees if his Defense not making stops impacted his season… if it impacted their situational football. Drew Brees didn't all of a sudden forget how to play. They are a 7-9 team because they could not make stops on defense….. again WVU defense gave up a AVERAGE of 38 points…. that is trialing before you even get off the bus.

Peyton Manning never beat Florida….. Tennessee didn't even score till the 4th quarter of his last bowl game lost 42 to 17. So according to you if you had your say you would pass on Peyton Manning with that logic right?….. the truth is circumstances matter and when you dig into those events you see Geno Smith was 20 of 28 with 2TD no picks 205 yards… with 2 bad safeties in the game …. but you better also look at Peyton Manning throwing pick 6’s in his last 2 games vs the Gators AND in the last bowl game…. circumstances matter…. players around you matter…. situational football matters. Trying to use this "he just wins" argument doesn’t work in any other area of life… can’t do that as a electronics tech… can’t do that as a brain surgery … can’t do that as a CEO of major business. You HAVE to look at "why".

Why….. Why did WVU lose those games? Was it Geno Smith?… Add up the SHEAR NUMBER of TD and yardage he would have had to have produce in order to have won those games…. and your only answer is "he isn’t a winner"? If a major company tried to critically think like that they would end up like Best Buy….

2. Conferences a player plays in or competition......

This isn't a evaluation of skill sets. I know the difference between the SEC and Division 3. However this is why you have film so that you can see the skill that fit your system or not.

3 the type of system a quarterback runs.....

A system doesn't walk into your locker room. A quarterbacks skill sets do. There has been a lot of concern over quarterbacks from spread systems. But to generalize is a trap and NEVER a valid means of evaluation of a player. Lets look at undeniable FACTS!!!!. With just a lock at the last 5 years of the NFL draft.

List of the last 5 years.... spread QB seem to work just as well as anyone else... You could even argue they are working out increasingly more.

The good evaluators don’t evaluate based on a system. History is against you on this one and it is very troubling to read this… it is like >> denial. Because facts are against you on this. Lets call your bluff and prove my point at the same time with a review of the last decade of >> quarterbacks and their systems >> and who became a bust or a good to elite player… shall we?……

First quarterbacks that came from a pro style system over the last 5 seasons. And I will note what round because we both know earlier you draft the quarterback the more likely of success regardless of system…. ready for your bluff to be called?.Here it goes…..

Quarterbacks listed on Bold came from spread systems. And as you can see more and more are being drafted. And more of them are coming in as NFL ready as anyone else.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
2012 – QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Andrew Luck QB Stanford Indianapolis Colts
1 2 Robert Griffin QB Baylor Washington Redskins
1 8 Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M Miami Dolphins
1 22 Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State Cleveland Browns
2 57 Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State Denver Broncos
3 75 Russell Wilson QB Wisconsin Seattle Seahawks
3 88 Nick Foles QB Arizona Philadelphia Eagles
4 102 Kirk Cousins QB Michigan State Washington Redskins
6 185 Ryan Lindley QB San Diego State Arizona Cardinals
7 243 B.J. Coleman QB Tennessee-Chattanooga Green Bay Packers
7 253 Chandler Harnish QB Northern Illinois Indianapolis Colts

and 2011

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
2011 – QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Cam Newton QB Auburn Carolina Panthers
1 8 Jake Locker QB Washington Tennessee Titans
1 10 Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri Jacksonville Jaguars
1 12 Christian Ponder QB Florida State Minnesota Vikings
2 35 Andy Dalton QB Texas Christian Cincinnati Bengals
2 36 Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada-Reno San Francisco 49ers
3 74 Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas New England Patriots
5 135 Ricky Stanzi QB Iowa Kansas City Chiefs
5 152 T.J Yates QB North Carolina Houston Texans
5 160 Nathan Enderle QB Idaho Chicago Bears
6 180 Tyrod Taylor QB Virginia Tech Baltimore Ravens
7 208 Greg McElroy QB Alabama New York Jets

and 2010

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2010 – QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma St. Louis Rams
1 25 Tim Tebow QB Florida Denver Broncos
2 48 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame Carolina Panthers
3 85 Colt McCoy QB Texas Cleveland Browns
4 122 Mike Kafka QB Northwestern Philadelphia Eagles
5 155 John Skelton QB Fordham Arizona Cardinals
5 168 Jonathan Crompton QB Tennessee San Diego Chargers
6 176 Rusty Smith QB Florida Atlantic Tennessee Titans
6 181 Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan Chicago Bears
6 199 Joe Webb QB Alabama-Birmingham Minnesota Vikings
6 204 Tony Pike QB Cincinnati Carolina Panthers
7 209 Levi Brown QB Troy Buffalo Bills
7 239 Sean Canfield QB Oregon State New Orleans Saints
7 250 Zac Robinson QB Oklahoma State New England Patriots

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

2009 – QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Matthew Stafford QB Georgia Detroit Lions
1 5 Mark Sanchez QB USC New York Jets
1 17 Josh Freeman QB Kansas State Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2 44 Pat White QB West Virginia Miami Dolphins
4 101 Stephen McGee QB Texas A&M Dallas Cowboys
5 151 Rhett Bomar QB Sam Houston State New York Giants
5 171 Nate Davis QB Ball State San Francisco 49ers
6 174 Tom Brandstater QB Fresno State Denver Broncos
6 178 Mike Teel QB Rutgers Seattle Seahawks
6 196 Keith Null QB West Texas A&M St. Louis Rams
6 201 Curtis Painter QB Purdue Indianapolis Colts

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2008 – QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 3 Matt Ryan QB Boston College Atlanta Falcons
1 18 Joe Flacco QB Delaware Baltimore Ravens
2 56 Brian Brohm QB Louisville Green Bay Packers
2 57 Chad Henne QB Michigan Miami Dolphins
3 94 Kevin O’Connell QB San Diego State New England Patriots
5 137 John David Booty QB USC Minnesota Vikings
5 156 Dennis Dixon QB Oregon Pittsburgh Steelers
5 160 Josh Johnson QB San Diego Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5 162 Erik Ainge QB Tennessee New York Jets
6 186 Colt Brennan QB Hawaii Washington Redskins
6 198 Andre Woodson QB Kentucky New York Giants
7 209 Matt Flynn QB Louisiana State Green Bay Packers
7 223 Alex Brink QB Washington State Houston Texans

So while some will try to bring up a spread system as a concern… .it isn’t based on reality… it is based on group think!!!!!!

Top 6 spread QB from the last 5 drafts

Cam Newton 1st rounder
Colin Kaepernick 2nd rounder
Robert Griffin III 1st rounder
Joe Flacco 1st rounder
Andy Dalton 3rd rounder
Sam Bradford 1st rounder

Top 6 pro Style quarterbacks of the last 5 drafts

Andrew Luck 1st rounder
Matt Ryan 1st rounder
Russell Wilson 3rd rounder
Matthew Stafford 1st rounder
Josh Freeman 1st rounder
Christian Ponder 1st rounder
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
OR what about note worthy busts or under achievers

Not going to bother to list guys drafted late as you can look up there yourself lol:)

Spread offense

Blaine Gabbert 1st rounder
Tim Tebow 1st rounder
Colt McCoy 2nd rounder
Kevin O’Connel 3rd rounder

Pro style

Jake Locker 1st rounder
Christian Ponder 1st rounder
Jimmy Clausen 2nd rounder
Mark Sanchez 1st rounder
Brian Brohm 2nd rounder
Chad Henne 2nd rounder

Based on facts just pure facts… it appears drafting is trending toward spread quarterbacks…. success is trending toward spread quarterbacks… the NCCAF is trending toward spread systems….. in a nute shell. Suggesting that a quarterback that comes from a spread oriented offense as a issue is lazy analysis…. out of date… simply not good enough.

Skill sets can be evaluated….NOT a system… prospects walk through your door with their skill sets NOT their college coach or prior system……… as proven with facts above.

All of this fear of spread quarterbacks, I blame Mouse Davis and June Jones inventors of the run and shoot.

As the NFL’s fear of drafting spread quarterbacks stem from Andre Ware and David Klingler who ding and dunked their way to massive yardage totals in their run and shoot offenses. The NFL failed to look at their skill sets and in turn blamed their failed lazy evaluations of the spread offense. Instead of the NFL's fraud rudimentary methods of scouting a scheme that was new to college football. The Houston Cougar's massive points and yardage totals are the result pre run&shoot defensive philosophy.(in short no one had a clue how to defend Mouse Davis's offense for a few seasons)

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Stats

Stats are one of the main pit falls in the evaluation process. Andrew Ware for example was a stats guy dream. Yet the NFL did a poor job (Lions) of evaluating skill sets. This fear of spread quarterbacks is because they tend to put up monster numbers compared too their counterparts.

Other positions like running back give you a better understanding with stats because if a running back has 2 things >> big time stats >> running style matches body type (IE big guy runs like a big guy instead of a scat back... or a little back trying to run with power instead of speed and quickness)... then generally a running back will pan out...........to try to look at a quarterback this way is a mistake.

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My opinion

Geno Smith is the type of prospect that will grade low in this type of media environment because there is a lack of skill set evaluations and every arguement you hear is based on one of these four flawed concepts too use as a basis to evaluate in a vacuum...........

1. wins and losses

2. conference they played in team they played for or against

3. type of offensive system they ran

4. stats

In my humble opinion in my process (which by the way not only have I been right using this system but I have been dead on IN DETAIL right)... i use 2 traits as my basis with all other sources of input as food for thought......

My evaluation process is 2 part...

A. does a quarterback throw with anticipation with accuracy.

B. Do they have dynamic pocket command? … as defined by the following

1. Able to maintain eye level down field regardless of what is happening (feel the rush not look at the rush). Can a passer slide in the pocket and climb the pocket while NOT looking at the rush at all.

2. Can a passer maintain his passing profile (ready to throw it and remain on balance) and if extending the play by moving can they reload (get back on balance)

3. Does a passers level of play drop off significantly when they are pressured? Or can a passer maintain a high level of play vs pressure.

4. (bonus) have the ability to extend the play.

5. (bonus) have the ability to make plays with their legs.

My prior evaluation fan posts related to command in the pocket and projecting the 2011and 2012 prospects.

Leadership

There has been rumblings from fans that suggest that Geno Smith has poor leadership. Opinion tends to be oriented around his reaction to losing in their last bowl game. Mostly centered around his responds to a safety and him not getting the call for tripping by a defender. I took a different spin from that.... kinda what I heard from "football coach talk".... "if you find yourself a guy who is ok with losing then you have found yourself a loser". Geno Smith looked irate and I kinda liked that moment. Kinda reminded me of Peyton Manning going off on the sidelines.

Intelligence

Story here

Grouped with other students classified as gifted, Smith was taught an advanced curriculum emphasizing creativity and the arts. He wrote stories and poetry, acted in the school’s production of "The Nutcracker" and competed in chess tournaments. In fifth grade, he won an oratorical contest reciting work by the poet Langston Hughes. But he enjoyed sketching cartoon characters the most.

A critic and an ally, Smith’s grandmother exhibited his artwork on the refrigerator. She expected quality in whatever he did, but displayed anything he made.

With an impressive portfolio by seventh grade, Smith was admitted to Norland Middle School’s magnet program, which dedicated two hours a day to arts instruction. There, Smith thrived, drawing with pencils and charcoal. Painting with pastels and acrylic paints required touch, foresight and patience. Minor mistakes could nullify hours of work. No matter what tools he employed, he was a perfectionist.

"He was an extremely talented student with a natural drawing ability," Gerald Obregon wrote in an e-mail. For two years, he and another teacher, Linda Atkinson, were Smith’s art instructors. Obregon added: "The quality of his drawings was more advanced than your average 13-, 14-year-old. It was actually on par with a college freshman in art school."

Smith’s observation skills were particularly profound; he could capture the subtleties and emotions of the human face, Atkinson said. He drew details that some older artists overlooked or lacked the skill to portray. What jumped out were his characters’ eyes, which seemed lifelike.

Now having a gifted artistic touch may not seem like a hugh asset. But I think it does. What element of intelligence is called upon more once the ball is snapped? Too see the possiblities and have the creativity to exploit them is another aspect of intelligence that goes beyond slide rulers and calculators.

This element of creativity in my mind defines the difference between Troy Aikman and Dan Marino. Both of them had strong arms and both of them are very accurate. But it is that element of innate creativity and instinctive that separates them as passers...... a element that Geno Smith on film in my opinion displays.... example. Considering not just the deep ball ability but his effectiveness in the Red Zone..... 34 TD 1int 1 sack for his career and those stats match film. .... reflected by a wide variety of passes in a short area. (Aaron Rodgers)

15............16.............15...........the Wonderlick scores of Dan Marino, Terry Bradshaw and Jim Kelly. Marino and Kelly ran dynamic offensive schemes with no huddle concepts way ahead of the game. Kelly and Marino where extremely intelligent football players and Terry Bradshaw was very successfully (can't speak on him because i didn't watch him)

The major point here is that as a football player creativity could very well be the MOST desired aspect of intelligence needed from a quarterback. I have never really heard of a quarterback that failed because they sent him into the game and he didn't know the plays lol. ..... Again I am speaking to the tone of the question>> "can he learn a NFL playbook". I think that this question is way over blown and in reality there really isn't much of a precedence for this being a issue in the modern football era..... and even with that being said it takes the creativity to use a tool to its max potential.

Designed his own plays in high school

Holgorsen said. At Miramar, Smith had designed his own plays

My grading of Geno Smith?

Quarterback success/fail rate is directly related to the above "Pocket Skills Matrix"

These are failed to under achieving to good quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2001 and what i saw as their issues or strengths after the snap from the pocket. This is only referencing pocket skills NOT what happens after the ball leaves their hands. Note the more issues they have the more tendency to be a bust. Note the less issues they have the better they tend to pan out as players. Again this is my opinion but some may find a lot of truth in this. Quarterback / had issues with (using pocket skills matrix above) I don’t consider fails with # 4 or 5 to be that big of a deal.. but failures in 1 2 or 3 to be critical and flat out no recovery from these weaknesses in order to be great. numbers indicate areas of weakness.

B. Do they have dynamic pocket command? … as defined by the following

1. Able to maintain eye level down field regardless of what is happening (feel the rush not look at the rush). Can a passer slide in the pocket and climb the pocket while NOT looking at the rush at all.

2. Can a passer maintain his passing profile (ready to throw it and remain on balance) and if extending the play by moving can they reload (get back on balance)

3. Does a passers level of play drop off significantly when they are pressured? Or can a passer maintain a high level of play vs pressure.

4. (bonus) have the ability to extend the play.

5. (bonus) have the ability to make plays with their legs.

A number by their name means questionable to fail for that dynamic......... This isn't fact this is my attempt at articulating what I see. Reminder this is ONLY pocket skills in this section.

David Carr / 1 2 3 4 5

Joey Harrington / 1 3 4 5

Alex Smith / 1 3

Patrick Ramsey /1 3 4 5

Carson Palmer / 3 4 5

Byron Leftwich / 3 4 5

Eli Manning /

Philip Rivers / 4 5

Ben Roethlisberger /

J.P. Losman / 1 2 3

Jason Campbell / 3

Micheal Vick / 1 3

Vince Young / 1 2 3

JaMarcus Russell / 1 2 3 4 5

Brady Quinn / 1 3

Matt Ryan / 3 4 5

Joe Flacco / 3

Matthew Stafford / 4 5

Mark Sanchez / 1 3 4

Josh Freeman / 3

Sam Bradford / 3 4

Tim Tebow / 2 3

Cam Newton /

Jake Locker / not enough snaps to evaluate

Blaine Gabbert / 1 2 3 4

Christian Ponder / 1 3

Jay Cutler / 3

Andrew Luck / 3

Colin Kaepernick /

Robert Griffin III /

Russell Wilson /

Andy Dalton / 2

Aaron Rodgers /

Peyton Manning /

Tom Brady /

Matt Barkley / 2 3 4 5

Ryan Nassib / 2 3

E J Manuel / 1 2

Mike Glennon / 2 3 4 5

Tyler Wilson / 1 2 3 4 5

Geno Smith /

I didn't list everyone... just enough for most to get the pattern. If you can't excel at this aspect of quarterbacking you will struggle. This isn't fact, this is my simply trying to find a way to articulate what I am seeing on film.

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A. does a quarterback throw with anticipation with accuracy.

Being able to throw the football is important. However this is not as unique as some may think. Let me put it this way, throwing the football accurately is not unique. Throwing with accuracy and anticipation is a different ball of wax all together.

In order for a quarterback to be able to effectively throw with anticipation they NEED to be able too excel in at 1 and 2 under......... B

B. Do they have dynamic pocket command? … as defined by the following

1. Able to maintain eye level down field regardless of what is happening (feel the rush not look at the rush). Can a passer slide in the pocket and climb the pocket while NOT looking at the rush at all.

2. Can a passer maintain his passing profile (ready to throw it and remain on balance) and if extending the play by moving can they reload (get back on balance)

NO MATTER how well you can throw a football it doesn't matter if you fail in these 2 anticipation dependent skill sets. Just ask this guy who if it was up to him he would be the number one pick in the draft.Look at him in a game situation without the ability too excel at 1 and 2 the ability to throw the football is trumped by the ability to remain calm while doing so.

Let me put it in video game terms, if your quarterback throw accuracy is 99 but he fails at 1 and 2 then his game time throw accuracy vs pressure will be lower lets say 65. Yet the guy who is rated 85 throw accuracy that can deal with pressure accuracy only drops to 81 vs pressure...... then consider than half of the snaps in the NFL involve pressure and well.... there you go (I hated using that Madden analogy).

Throwing with accuracy and anticipation is a symbiotic skill set with responds to pressure as it relates to 1 and 2 on the pocket command matrix.

Geno Smith grades out very high as a anticipation thrower. With unique at times ball placement. What I would say holds him back from being completely unique is his collection of dead on target throws with a every now and then "what was that?" But whatever team picks him up their offense will improve dramatically.... red zone.... 3rd down... points per game... all of those areas will go up.

Two years ago I had a conversation with a friend about Geno Smith. I said he had the best Command in the pocket that I had ever seen. I stored that away in the back of my mind thinking "maybe".

NFL comparison Aaron Rodgers

Thank you for reading and for those that watch all the way to the end of my Video laugh with me :). Be nice because this is my first Fan Post here.:)

FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of the authors of Big Cat Country or SB Nation.

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