Breaking down Jaguars OC Jedd Fisch's offense at Miami

Jacksonville Jaguars

Let's break down Jedd Fisch's offense.

I charted about 250 snaps of Miami's offense (North Carolina, North Carolina State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech) to get a feel for Fisch's play calling tendencies, favorite concepts, and how he utilized the talent at hand. Besides noting personnel groupings and the plays being run (I'll get into more Xs and Os stuff in a later post), I also graded the outcome of each play according to Football Outsiders' College Football Success Rate metric. A "Success" is awarded by the offense gaining 50% of the required yards on 1st down (usually five yards), 70% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd down.

The first chart shows success rate according to down, distance and play type. The second chart shows what kind of plays are being run in those down and distance situations. Just a warning: these numbers aren't very pretty. On the bright side, I do like a lot of the things Fisch does conceptually, and I think it can potentially suit the personnel here very well.

Note: 1st and Possession = the initial 1st down of a drive. .

Success Rate
1st and Possession 1st and 10 2nd and 1-3 2nd and 4-6 2nd and 7+ 3rd and 1-3 3rd and 4-6 3rd and 7+
Overall Success
31% Success Rate 29% Success Rate 86% Success Rate 57% Success Rate 29% Success Rate 44% Success Rate 36% Success Rate 21% Success Rate
Dropback Pass
20% Success Rate 30% Success Rate 100% Success Rate 25% Success Rate 26% Success Rate 50% Success Rate 29% Success Rate 29% Success Rate

Play Action/

Movement Pass

29% Success Rate 33% Success Rate 50% Success Rate 0% Success Rate (1 attempt) 17% Success Rate 0% Success Rate (1 attempt) 100% Success Rate 0% Success Rate
Run 29% Success Rate 27% Success Rate 100% Success Rate 78% Success Rate 13% Success Rate 50% Success Rate 0% Success Rate 50% Success Rate
Screen 60% Success Rate 50% Success Rate 57% Success Rate 0% Success Rate

Down and Distance Tendencies
1st and Possession 1st and 10 2nd and 1-3 2nd and 4-6 2nd and 7+ 3rd and 1-3 3rd and 4-6 3rd and 7+
23% Dropback Pass 13% Dropback Pass 14% Dropback Pass 29% Dropback Pass 36% Dropback Pass
78% Dropback Pass 64% Dropback Pass 75% Dropback Pass
16% Play Action Pass 10% Play Action Pass 29% Play Action Pass 7% Play Action Pass 22% Play Action Pass 11% Play Action Pass 18% Play Action Pass 11% Play Action Pass
49% Run 74% Run 57% Run 64% Run 27% Run 11% Run 18% Run 7% Run
12% Screen 3% Screen 13% Screen

  • On 1st and Possession, they show a nice balance between running and passing (and variety in the types of passes they're throwing). The problem is that they weren't particularly successful in any facet, either. Poor 1st down production is crippling on an offense. Most people point to 3rd down as the most important, but 1st down is the real money down in football.
  • You can see that Miami really wanted to establish a consistent run game and just wasn't able to do so.Their run/pass ratio really skews especially heavy on 1st and 10 situations (they ran almost 75% of time time at just a 27% Success Rate).
  • I'd like to see more use out of the screen game, especially because Fisch uses his backs really creatively in the passing game. Miami's offensive line rhad a tendency to get overwhelmed in pass protection (I completely understand the rationale of drafting Joeckel now), especially once they got into longer Down and Distance situations.
  • A lot of Miami's problems were personnel related. Their two best players on offense were good - but not spectacular - runningbacks. Their quarterback was very young and played like it. Their offensive line was overmatched often, struggling to open holes or pass protect. Sounds familiar, huh?

That's not to paint a picture of gloom and doom. As noted, Miami shared a lot of the same personnel deficiencies as the Jaguars. With the addition of Joeckel and some luck with health, the Jaguars' offensive line should be much improved from the last two seasons. I can see immediately how the team will want to get Denard involved, both as a space player and doing Wildcat stuff. The Jaguars also have more relative talent at wide receiver than the Hurricanes. So there's a lot of reason for optimism, and, overall, I think a lot of the pieces the Jaguars already have in place will meld nicely with Fisch's philosophy on offense.

Keep reading:

Who's on your Jaguars Mt. Rushmore?

The rise of "Generation Jaguar"

David Garrard calls it quits

Tyson Alualu moving to DE

2013 NFL schedule: Times, dates for preseason announced

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