Blaine Gabbert is the worst QB of the DVOA era

Mike Ehrmann

In not so surprising news, Blaine Gabbert is the worst quarterback of all time in the DVOA era.

We all know former Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert is bad. While the question of how bad isn't necessarily relevant, it's of no surprise that Gabbert is the worst quarterback of all time in the DVOA era of the NFL.

The. Worst. Of. All. Time.

From Football Outsiders, here is a generalized definition of what DVOA means. You can follow this link for a longer explanation.

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.

In their annual review of DVOA for the 2013 season, they also touched on some historical perspectives with their methodology. Gabbert ended up with their worst score for a quarterback ever. This means it's worse than that of Ryan Leaf, David Carr, Jamarcus Russell, Akili Smith and Joey Harrington.

Let that sink in.

Gabbert finished the season a a -426 DYAR passing and a -8 DYAR rushing, putting his total DYAR at -434. His final passing DVOA was -83.7 percent. According to FO, only two quarterbacks with at least 98 passes have scored worse in DVOA; Alex Smith as a rookie and Craig Krenzel.

It gets worse.

When you add this to Gabbert's rookie season (-1,010 passing DYAR, the second-worst season we've ever analyzed) and his 2012 campaign (-268 DYAR), you get a total of -1,704 passing DYAR. That sure sounds bad, but can we put into context? Why yes, yes we can. Before this season, Danny Tuccito looked over the worst quarterbacks on record in total DYAR, and found that the only quarterback worse than Gabbert was Ryan Leaf. Well, forget that. Gabbert has fallen deep below the Leaf pile, and stands alone and undisputed as the Worst Quarterback of the DVOA Era. No high-profile bust of the past 25 years -- not Leaf, not JaMarcus Russell, not Akili Smith nor David Carr nor Joey Harrington -- has ever been this bad. Each of those notoriously bad passers looks down at Blaine Gabbert, likely with disdain, or perhaps pity.

I mean, we knew he was bad. I wrote about it a while ago when it looked like he wouldn't play for the Jaguars again, but good grief. He's got to be the most Gene Smith pick of all time, more-so than taking a punter in the third round... to be quite honest.

Good luck in San Francisco.

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