It seems unlikely the Jacksonville Jaguars draft a quarterback with the No. 3 overall pick, which has led to some fans discussing and asking if it would be smart for the Jaguars to trade back into the first round if a quarterback slides and they don't think they'll make it to pick No. 39.
The big gamble on the Jaguars waiting until round two to pick a quarterback is that there are multiple teams who pick before them in the second round, because of the same 2013 record and the order flipping, that there could be a run on the position.
"Not in the 20s," Jaguars general manager Dave Caldwell said at his pre-draft luncheon with the media, when asked if there would be an early run on quarterbacks. "I could see early second round."
There was some belief that some of the teams such as the Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns could snap up quarterbacks if they fell to them, leading people to think the Jaguars would need to trade up to No. 25 overall or higher to get the guy they wanted, picking in front of the Browns.
It makes sense, to a degree, but my personal opinion is if you're going to give up multiple picks for a quarterback why not just draft them third overall?
That aside, there is another benefit from trading back into round one and picking a quarterback that most don't think about, and it's a financial one.
Under the current CBA, first round picks sign a five-year contract with the final year being a team option. You've seen in the news lately teams deciding to pass or pick up the fifth-year option on players from the 2011 NFL Draft class. This gives teams more control in negotiations, which at a position like quarterback, can be vital when looking for the new deal.
You get the player cost-controlled for four seasons, and they're not allowed to renegotiate until after their third season in the league. It's almost like it's own variant of the franchise tag, but it pays the average salary of players ranked 3rd-25th in salary for that position for players picked outside the Top 10. Inside the Top 10 it pays the transition tag number for that players fourth season (so the 2011 class gets the 2014 number).
For example, if the Jaguars had picked a quarterback at say... 28 overall in 2011. This year they could tack on the fifth-year option at the cost of $5.78 million, if my notion of just counting base salary is correct.
Again, I'm not inclined to think they will move back into the first round, but it's another thing to think about if they choose to.
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