FanPost

Blake Bortles Was Overvalued





There is an interesting concept in the finance world (a world I do not claim to be from, I just happened to remember some things): Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). At it's core the hypothesis states that markets/stocks/assets are informationally efficient, that is, the value of the market/stock/asset incorporates all information at the time of purchase.

The type of information that is incorporated is the key and where we find three different forms of efficiency:

Weak Form Efficiency - assumes that the value is based solely on historical performance

Semi-strong Form Efficiency - assumes that the value is based on historical performance AND all new publicly available information

Strong Form Efficiency - assumes that the value is based on historical perforamnce, all new publicly available information, AND private/insider information

For tl;dr sake, our financial markets are assumed to be semi-strong, values do not incorporate private information.

This holds true in stock markets because insider trading is illegal, and there is a duty owed to not trade off of private/insider information.

Related to the NFL front offices and specifically drafting, we cannot just assume that draft values are semi-strong as well. Insiders, in this case front offices, MUST trade off of private information.

Whether we knowingly apply the EMH concept or not, much of what he have heard with Blake Bortles is based on the weak form and semi-strong form.

BLAKE WAS OVERVALUED - If you believe that value is based on historical performance alone than you would be right to assume that the Jaguars front office does not know what they are doing. We have not drafted a Super Bowl winning quarterback yet, and especially our most recent failure of Blaine Gabbert leads the weak form to say that the Jaguars overvalued the quarterback position and Blake Bortles.

BLAKE WAS OVERVALUED - If you believe that value is based on publicly available information, then you have only heard what teams allowed to leak to the public. Plus you have seen the trade the Browns made, and where the other quarterbacks went. So it looks like once again the Jaguars did not value the quarterback position correctly.

BLAKE WAS ????????????? - The reality is there is too much private/insider information to know exactly how Bortles is valued. All we know is that the Jaguars valued him extremely high or I am sure they would not have pulled the trigger, but we have no way to relate that value to a baseline.

You would need to assume you knew unequivocally what the other 31 teams were going to, and how Bortles was ranked. You would need to know that the Browns didn't trade back because Bortles was gone. You would need to know that if you moved to 9 or 10, that someone would not jump to 8.

For this reason, break free of the assumption that the media has access to and disseminates all private information, the Jaguars drafted Blake Bortles at #3, and that's all you need to know about their evaluation. They put their money where their mouth is. From what we have seen so far with those two as talent evaluators, the confidence is exciting.

FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of the authors of Big Cat Country or SB Nation.

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