FanPost

Winning with Chad is Losing

Let's play Head Coach for a minute and look at all of the logical outcomes that may unfold with either Chad Henne or Blake Bortles as the Week 1 Starting Quarterback.

First, we'll start with Chad Henne.

Chad Henne Outcome #1

Chad Henne goes on a hot streak like never before and takes the Jaguars to the playoffs, maybe even the Superbowl. No one thought he had it in him except maybe the Jaguars coaching staff for naming him the all-but-uncontested starter following the draft. This is the "perfect world" scenario they mentioned when considering Chad Henne as the starter for the season.

Likelihood: Goodell would put you on the drug program just for thinking this is possible.

Result: Chad keeps the job and moves forward in 2015. The young team grows with Henne as Bortles continues to ride pine and "learn".

Chad Henne Outcome #2

Chad starts the season, and plays very Henne-like. That means hit-or-miss, for those unaware. The team around him is better this year, and the Jaguars are still in the running for playoffs when the bye comes around, but ultimately miss playoffs by a game or two. A good enough record to keep Bortles on the bench, but not enough to make playoffs.

Likelihood: Pretty likely. The team as a whole should perform better than last season, and Chad is good about 45% of the time.

Result: The team ends up with mid-round draft selections, Bortles misses out on 16 games worth of experience, and ends up starting in 2015. Chances of making playoffs in 2015 are definitely worse because of these facts.

Chad Henne Outcome #3

Chad starts, but is on a losing streak. The coaches give him a chance, but ultimately have seen enough sometime between Week 3 and the Bye week. As soon as they pull the trigger on Bortles, Henne's role turns strictly into a back-up one. Playoffs are either a long-shot or a huge whiff at this point, and they want to give Bortles some experience and time with the receivers.

Likelihood: If Henne starts the season, this is what my money would be on in Vegas.

Result: The season is a loss & the games given to Henne were a mistake in retrospect, but Bortles gets some experience & gel time with the starting offense. Bortles gets put in not because he was "ready" or "better" than Chad, but because Chad failed on taking the team all the way.

Blake Bortles Outcome #1

Blake Bortles is named the Day 1 Starter of the Jacksonville Jaguars. "Experience", "O-line", "Receivers", blah blah aside, the coaches felt Bortles was ready and better suited to be the leader of this team. There is only one Blake Bortles outcome that matters. Him starting. It really doesn't matter what happens with the 2014 season at that point, because he will be the starting Quarterback for the next few years regardless and this logic map only cares about 2014 and 2015.

Likelihood: Because there's only one Blake Bortles outcome that matters, the likelihood of him getting 16 games of NFL experience is 100%.

Result: No matter how the Jaguars' record ends up in 2014, Blake Bortles got priceless game time and experience with the team in his rookie year. The season will end with the compass pointing up, and fans can continue to be excited for 2015.

Synopsis:

There really is no benefit to starting the season with Chad Henne. One would truly have to believe that he is capable of taking this team to the playoffs this year. If not, then every Chad Henne game started actually hurts the future of thefranchise.

If Chad Henne starts a game & wins, but the Jags miss playoffs at end of season: Blake Bortles gets no experience and the Jaguars' draft position gets worse.

Winning with Chad Henne is Losing unless he takes the team all the way.

If Blake Bortles shows that he is "ready" in the third Preseason game, then giving him the starting job to open the season should be a no-brainer.

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