FanPost

OSR Report: Week 4 at Indianapolis

Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

Introduction

This was a game that, on paper, seemed like it was going to be a win. Andrew Luck was out, Matt Hasselbeck was in, and the Jaguars desperately needed a win after what happened in New England. The Jaguars seemed to have all of the box score ingredients necessary for a win:

Total Yardage: Check
Yards Per Play Advantage: Check
Passing Yards Advantage: Check
Rushing Yards Advantage: Check
Turnover Advantage: Check
Penalties Committed: Oh....

Jason Myers missing two game-winners definitely hurts, but the Jaguars still should have been able to put the Colts away before then. Multiple mistakes made in key situations doomed the team in week 4.

Let's get to it...

Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense

The offense put up their highest overall game success rate of the season (Week1: 39.4%, Week2: 44.6%, Week3:38.2%) against the Colts, but just couldn't stop shooting themselves in the foot. Despite moving the ball successfully on 1st and 2nd downs as a whole, the offense still faced a passing situation on 14/18 3rd down attempts in the game. Between offside and holding penalties, another infuriating illegal formation penalty, and more shotgun snap issues, the offense couldn't get out of it's own way. This was especially true in the second half.

What seems to be a common theme this year, the Jaguars' offensive production drooped in the second half for the fourth straight week to start the 2015 season. While it didn't drop as low as previous weeks (Week 3 notwithstanding due to the entire second half effectively being garbage time), the difference was notable. It was notable because the offense looked VERY good in the first half, especially quarterback Blake Bortles. I decided to feature the below play because it shows how much Bortles has grown making protection calls at the line since last season under Greg Olson. I can remember a drive against the Colts last year where the safety blitzed on successive plays, and ended up getting two pressures because Bortles didn't call out the extra blitzer for his OL so they could adjust the protection. This is what Jaguars fans should be excited about(click it if it's not playing automatically):

Jaguars fans should also be excited about these successive play action passes to Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson:

The problem is, those explosive plays are too few and far between. They were there in the first half, but in the second half the Colts played much tighter coverage while blitzing more frequently, forcing Bortles to get the ball out of his hands faster, executing with precision and timing. With that leaving Allen Robinson attempting to create instant separation off the line of scrimmage (not his game) against Vonte Davis, Allen Hurns was the only one consistently providing quick separation to help out their QB. It will likely help to get Julius Thomas and Marqise Lee back over the next few weeks to remedy that problem. Add in the fact the Jaguars ran the ball only six (6!!!) times in the second half, outside of OT, and the drives stalled just into enemy territory far too frequently.

Since it was A.J. Cann's first week, I made sure to pay extra attention to him. The results were... mixed. While he played a solid game overall, showing some of the physical traits that made him a steal in the third round, he also played like a rookie at times. Take the three plays below (again, click if it's not playing):

On the first play, from the first half(also the Jags' only sack surrendered), it looked like there was a miscommunication between Cann and fellow rookie T.J. Yeldon in protection. With both linebackers sugaring the A gap, Cann decides to pick up the linebacker on his inside shoulder, leaving the larger defensive lineman to the smaller running back. Not ideal, but it's nothing a well timed cut block can't solve. Yeldon blocks inside on the play though... While it can't be known who is supposed to pick up who by play design, these types of situations can (and should) be easily remedied with some form of communication. With the game being a road game, likely it would be up to Cann to make a non-verbal signal showing who he was blocking by a leg/butt tap, leaving the RB to be responsible for the other rusher. Obviously, that didn't happen... Communication is often an issue with young players on the OL, but it's definitely something he'll have to clean up soon, especially with Brandon Linder being out for the season.

The next two plays occurred in the second half in key situations, and added to the offense's second half woes. On the second play, Cann gets too aggressive and fails to properly seal the nose tackle David Parry (who has surprisingly quick feet for a man his size), preventing Yeldon from capitalizing on an otherwise well blocked play. On the third play, Cann's communication issues seem to make another appearance, as he never passes his man off to Jeremy Parnell on the DL game the Colts ran on the play. The speed of the game is much different than that of the college ranks, but he'll need to be able to process plays faster than that now that he's a starter.

Jaguars Defense vs Colts Offense

Bouncing back from Week 3, the Jaguars defense got back to their identity of shutting teams down on first and second down in order to create favorable situations on third down. Overall in the game, the Colts faced a passing situation (2nd & 8+ or 3rd & 5+) on 11/15 (73.3%) third down attempts. The problem this week was Matt Hasselbeck's ability to neutralize the Jaguars pass rush by executing out of empty sets (no RBs, five WR/TEs) and working the middle of the field using a quick passing attack. After the Patriots debacle, I would expect every team moving forward to emulate this strategy until the Jaguars' defense proves they can stop it... In the game, the Colts converted on 6/11 third down passing situations, with the Jaguars pressuring Hasselbeck on only two of those attempts.

A glaring problem this week was the penalties. On the Colts' lone touchdown drive, the Jaguars committed five penalties, giving the Colts first downs on two failed third down attempts, turning a 17 yard gain into a 32 yard gain, and two in the redzone that gave the Colts 1st & Goal on the Jaguars' two yard line.

In total, the Jaguars defense surrendered five (5!) first downs to the Colts by way of penalty, compared to just one given up by the Colts. Gus Bradley said in a press conference this week that the defensive holding calls are likely going to happen with the brand of defense the team plays, but these errors can't stack up like they did on Sunday. Good teams don't let situations get out of control like that.

The run defense in this game was phenomenal until Frank Gore pulled off his 22 yard run on the final OT drive. Looking at the overall game numbers, the Colts only found success on 26.1% of their total carries in the game, but had a staggeringly low 8.3% number in the first half. One of the contributing factors of that rate spiking to 45.5% in the second half was the absence of Paul Posluszny. One week removed from possibly his worst game as a pro, Poz showed some resiliency by being all over Gore in the first half. When Poz went down with an injury late in the second quarter, that's when Gore's presence started to be felt. Enter Thurston Armbrister, who played admirably, but, as most young players do, he missed some opportunities to hold the Colts to minimal gains. Here you'll see him miss a few tackles on Frank Gore and be late to fill a gap in the run game:

In order to give themselves the best shot against Tampa Bay in week 5, the Jaguars defense will need Armbrister to step up again if Poz is out. Limiting Doug Martin on early downs in the run game and on swing passes will put Jameis Winston into more passing situations, and likely help to exploit his recent turnover problems.

Final Notes

While a young offense should be expected to struggle executing in pressure situations, that doesn't make the situation any less frustrating for fans to watch on Sundays. Bortles looked flustered in the second half against the tighter coverage, but still managed to move the ball into field goal range for a potential game winner twice.

Add in that the defense, with multiple young injury fill-ins, began to allow an offense with a backup quarterback (a solid backup, but still) to find just enough success in the second half to stay in the game, and the game was allowed to slip away. Also, the two missed game winning kicks by, you guessed it, another young player didn't help things out.

This is a team that needs to grow up fast against the Buccaneers in week 5, because their coach's seat is starting to warm up quite a bit due to their inconsistent play.

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