FanPost

BBSS: Security Blankets & Where to Find Them (Part 1)


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With free agency around the corner and another season of Blake Bortles looming on the horizon, I decided to look at some stats on WRs (poorly).

First off, let me start by stating that I don't really view the WR position as anything approaching a need for our team, but looking into the position turned up some nuggets I found interesting whilst looking at what the free agent WR market has to offer.

Here is a table that we'll talk about a little later:

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This represents how some Jaguar's WRs did during the Blake Bortles era in terms of their Yards After Catch per Reception as well as their Yards At the Catch per Reception (basically a measure of how far down field the receiver was on average on plays that ended in a catch).

Bryan Walters is a below average Jaguar

Not really breaking news, but it is interesting to see the stats bear that storyline out, and one that will be important to remember when we inevitably resign Walters this offseason #BecauseJaguars.

Blake doesn't really have a good security blanket

For the most part, the players who are making the most short catches aren't doing a whole lot after the catch. This is especially worsened when we look at our high priced "receiving" tightend, and given how deep we tend to target the rest of our WRs we probably shouldn't wish for (or expect) him to be used on more deeper routes. But I digress, let's look for "better" options.

Free Agent Yards After Catch per Reception

Time to look at all the FAs to be and see which ones averaged more YAC/R than our team average in 2016.

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Twelve impending free agents averaged more YAC per reception than our team average last season. But YAC isn't the end all be all, so let's dig a little deeper.

Free Agent Yards At Catch per Reception

The next step is to limit our search using Y@C/R to help screen out the receivers who have been used more as deep targets as we already have a log jam at receiver when it comes to deep targets, we need the players who are going to give Bortles more bang for his buck and do it on the depths of the field where he isn't currently getting much help.

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This is not to say that only these 3 players are capable receivers (I'm partial to Quick and Wilson myself) but that these players might make more sense in a designated slot receiver role than the others. I will also take this time to point out how shallow Patterson was targeted and how this might be a sign of a very limited route tree which wouldn't exactly be helpful to Blake if he can in fact only run bubble screens effectively.

Looking at our list Athletically

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Cordarrelle Patterson might be best described as a linear athlete, and that is something that could cause him to struggle playing from the slot. Meanwhile Streater is boasting ludicrous speed (that is his top speed after just 10 yards mind you) to go along we excellent height and an above average vertical jump, and would seem like a fit based solely on roster mirroring.

TL;DR:

The Jaguars should probably look for a productive "security blanket" player for Blake Bortles, and should kick the tires on Rod Streater instead of resigning Bryan Walters.

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