FanPost

BBSS: Running backs, the "Yellow Zone", and More



I recently read an article on PFF, and it got me thinking...

For those who did follow the link the author breaks down the Red Zone into quarters and compares the RB usage and TD effectiveness by those quarters and labels the zone from the 5 yard line to the goal line the "Green Zone" because of how effective RBs are at scoring TDs within that zone. This caused me to look into the splits of the impending free agent running backs as well as to see how the Jaguars look through that same lens.

The Yellow Zone

Turns out there isn't a good source for the data to calculate Green Zone TD percentages, so I decided to develop the "Yellow Zone" or rather to focus on the zone from the opponents 10 yard line to the goal line. Here are the results of the impending FAs over the past 3 years:

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But should the Jaguars even be looking to add another RB? After all, isn't the combination of Ivory and Yeldon "Good enough"? Well it looks like the answer is maybe not.

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Digging Deeper

Obviously the Yellow Zone TD% isn't the end all be all stat, and players who are heavily used within the Green Zone (like Matt Asiata) are going to stand a better chance of having inflated numbers, so let's focus on the FA RBs' YPC to help weed out players who are limited to a short yardage role.
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The list of names on both lists is now down to Le'Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount, DeAngelo Williams, Eddie Lacy, and Lance Dunbar. Obviously Bell and Blount are the big names that probably won't leave their current teams but the other 3 might be worth kicking the tires on.

And for comparison, the Jaguars' players:

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A Look at Draft Eligible RBs

Obviously there is more than one way to improve the RB position so I crunched some numbers on some of the RBs in the upcoming draft, here are those results:

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Looks like there could be a couple of bargains in this draft class, players such as Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Jeremy McNichols, Elijah McGuire, Samaje Perine, and Marlon Mack could be interesting options if we don't overdraft a RB in the first round.

TL;DR:

The Jaguars might still be in need of a running back, and there are a couple of options to improve upon the position in both FA and the draft.

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