Something I came across on ESPN today.  What makes this more aggravating is the fact that Pierre-Paul, who everyone expected us to draft has 12 sacks, 10 passes defensed, and 3 forced fumbles so far in a year and a half.  Pouncey was on the board too.  Alualu so far has 4.5 sacks,  2 passes defended, and no forced fumbles.  I like Alualu as a player and a person, but some may have been right.  Maybe we did reach. 

 

Paul Kuharsky -

"Pro Football Focus says Knighton’s been productive four games in a row, but scored Alualu poorly over the same span, with an especially bad game in Week 4 against New Orleans. 

Overall, Knighton is 27th in the website's defensive tackle ratings and Alualu is 77th of 78 rated players. Their work against the run is judged superior to their work rushing the quarterback."

At 1-5, to say that the Jaguars' season has been a disappointment thus far would be an understatement.  Jacksonville hasn't won in a month and a half, and they keep finding ways to lose football games.  Will this week end just like the last five, or is it possible that they somehow manage to pull off the upset under the bright lights?

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Smith graduated from Heidelberg College, serving as a captain of the football team while playing as a defensive lineman. (Sound familiar?) He is a small school product that has a chip on his shoulder because he wasn't smart enough or a good enough of a player to get into a BCS school. So, at the Jaguars expense, he is determined to make a Division II college team compete in the NFL!!! Gene Smith has been the head of scouting since 2000. I think that pretty much speaks for it's self. Gene Smith is a small school scout, and not even a very good one of those. And Mr. Weaver makes him a GM. Unbelievable! Hey Mr Weaver, my three year old grandson knows more about the NFL than Gene Smith does. Should I bring him in for an interview? I'm not being disrespectful here but seriously, does Gene Smith appear "mildly retarded" when you hear him talk, or see him in an interview? I don't think his elevator makes it to the top floor... Maybe Mr Weaver is doing his part by employing people with disabilities?

For me, it's down to the Colts and the Dolphins, two teams who just can't seem to win no matter what, and who lose in horrible fashion. Yesterday, the Dolphins couldn't hold off Tim Tebow in his first ever start for a team that is absolutely awful. And the Colts got whipped by the Saints for the biggest losing margin in the history of their franchise.

So who's gonna get Lucky? Simply put, whoever loses the most games. Here's why I think it's Miami.

If we take a look at their schedule, we see these remaining opponents. To me, there is not one winnable game left on the schedule. Sure, they might scrape something out over the Chiefs or catch a break on a late season Bill collapse or a Romo collapse when they play the 'Boys, but those would be huge upsets and nothing to do with them. Realistically, hope might only come if Sparano is fired mid-season (likely) and the interim starts turning it around Jason Garett style. Still... what can you do with such a terrible offense and porous secondary? If you can't get points and you can't prevent passing yards, you're doomed.

Wk	Date	Game	Stadium	Time (ET)	Tickets	Network	DIRECTV	SIRIUS	Westwood One
8	Oct 30	MIA @ NYG	MetLife Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS	705	86 (MIA) 136 (NYG)
9	Nov 06	MIA @ KC	Arrowhead Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS	706
10	Nov 13	WAS @ MIA	Sun Life Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	FOX	713
11	Nov 20	BUF @ MIA	Sun Life Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS	706
12	Nov 24	MIA @ DAL	Cowboys Stadium	4:15 PM	Tickets	CBS
13	Dec 04	OAK @ MIA	Sun Life Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS	707
14	Dec 11	PHI @ MIA	Sun Life Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	FOX	711
15	Dec 18	MIA @ BUF	Ralph Wilson Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS	705
16	Dec 24	MIA @ NE	Gillette Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS	705
17	Jan 01	NYJ @ MIA	Sun Life Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS	704

 

Now the Colts schedule! No, not them! They CAN'T have Luck, it's not fair! Well, I think they still have some wins in them so we should be safe. That home game against Carolina looks winnable, but then you have to remember that Cam Newton will be throwing against a patch-work secondary. If Curtis Painter continues to improve, it could be a nice shoot-out in a dome against two crappy defenses. That's the closest thing to a win that I think they get.

Then the J-ville games. Hmmm.... I'd like to say we'll win both of those but with our banged up O-line and Mathis and Freeney being as sack-hungry as ever? I think the Colts could win one of those. Other than that? NE, ATL, HOU, BAL, TEN twice... no way do they win any of those games. The Colts finish 2-14, the Dolphins finish 1-15 and "win" Andrew Luck in my prediction. Jags will finish 3-13 and get Justin Blackmon or somebody awesome, then finish 12-4 next year, win the Superbowl, finally become Green Bay of the South, bring about world peace, etc.

Wk	Date	Game	Stadium	Time (ET)	Tickets	Network	DIRECTV	SIRIUS	Westwood One
8	Oct 30	IND @ TEN	LP Field	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS	706	85 (IND) 117 (TEN)
9	Nov 06	ATL @ IND	Lucas Oil Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	FOX	710
10	Nov 13	JAC @ IND	Lucas Oil Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS	708
11	Bye
12	Nov 27	CAR @ IND	Lucas Oil Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	FOX	709
13	Dec 04	IND @ NE	Gillette Stadium	8:20 PM	Tickets	NBC
14	Dec 11	IND @ BAL	M&T Bank Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS	708
15	Dec 18	TEN @ IND	Lucas Oil Stadium	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS	706
16	Dec 22	HOU @ IND	Lucas Oil Stadium	8:20 PM	Tickets	NFLN
17	Jan 01	IND @ JAC	EverBank Field	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS	709

We all know how badly we need help at WR.  Of course, MSW has re-joined the ranks, so we should be set at the position long-term...

Okay, just in case that doesn't work out.  I thought Mocking the Draft gave us some words of encouragement:

The 2012 NFL Draft looks to be absolutely loaded with quality receiving prospects. Alshon Jeffery, Michael Floyd, Justin Blackmon, Ryan Broyles, Jeff Fuller and Juron Criner are all 1st round possibilities at this point and a few other guys should earn Day One consideration by the time April rolls around. While it's unlikely that all the top underclassmen will declare, there should be enough to make 2012 one of the deepest WR groups in history

 Looking at this list, I get the feeling Gene (if he survives the guillotine) might wait until round 2 for a WR.  I am really not familiar with some of these prospects.  But, if there are good lookers in round 2, I think he will take the chance there and not in the 1st.

What do you think?

Poll

If Gene is making the picks; do you see him taking a WR in round 1 or 2?

45%

Gene will take a WR in the 1st

27 votes

33%

Gene will take a WR in the 2nd

20 votes

21%

Gene will take a WR in the 1st and 2nd

13 votes

60 votes | Poll has closed

Hello all, I come into your humble abode as an active participant in other SB nation blogs, namely CatScratchReader and MTD on the football side. I enjoy looking at the draft and have come here today to ask you your thoughts on your particular teams  needs and the level of needs in each case.

Recently over on CSR, a reader of ours, Tater, came up with a nice way of putting numbers on needs and values of the team and players.  Here is how it works from his own words:

The system provides a point value to the situation of a team at a position from 10 to 1. 10 being the MOST dire and 1 being no worries. It then goes on to provide a point value to a draftable player from 10 to 1, 10 being the best in the draft and 1 being unproven questionable talent.

To compute the DVI of a position, you simply add the two numbers together.

Let me go ahead and show you the metrics...

Draft Value Index (DVI)

Team Situation at position (TS)

10 - No viable or serviceable starter and no legitimate or serviceable future starter
9 – No viable or serviceable starter and serviceable future starter
8 – Serviceable starter with injury/time issues and no legitimate or servicable future starter
7 – Viable starter with injury/time issues and no legitimate or servicable future starter
6 – Serviceable starter with injury/time issues and no legitimate future starter, but servicable future starter exists
5 – Viable starter with injury/time issues and future viable starter exists
4 – Serviceable starter with no legitimate future starter
3 – Serviceable starter with legitimate future starter
2 -  Viable starter with serviceable depth
1 – Viable starter with legitimate depth

 

Projected Player Quality (PQ)

10 – Once in a generation player, immediate viable starter, future HOF’er
9 – Special talent, proven college track record, immediate viable starter, future Pro Bowler
8 – Above Average talent, proven college track record, immediate viable starter
7 – Special talent, unproven college track record, immediate serviceable starter, future viable starter
6 – Above Average talent, unproven college track record, immediate serviceable starter, future viable starter
5 – Average talent, proven college track record, immediate and future serviceable starter
4 – Average talent, unproven college track record, future serviceable starter
3 – Developmental talent, proven college track record at position, future viable starter
2 – Developmental talent, proven college track record at other position, future viable starter
1 – Developmental talent, unproven college track record, future serviceable starter

A couple of key terms:

Viable starter- Someone you are fully comfortable carrying the load at a position
Serviceable starter – Someone you are comfortable carrying the load until better talent can be acquired

I think you guys get the picture, so from now on I will just list the positions with the greatest need.

WR - 6, OT - 7, G - 4, DT - 9, OLB - 7,

Now to apply these findings a little...

DT is our greatest need. We should draft DT if a player of quality 10-8 exists when we pick, for comparison, Ndamukong Suh has a PQ of 10, we have a TS of 9, that gives Suh a DVI of 19. The reason that we go DT, is that the next greatest need we have is OLB which we should only consider drafting if a player has a DVI of 17 and no DT is higher than 16. If there is a tie, as say the best DT is a 17 and the best linebacker is a 17, the tiebreaker is organization philosophy, which for Carolina is BPA over Need. Therefore, we draft the "Once in a generation linebacker" first over the "Special but unproven talent" at DT.

 

Also here is the link to the original post: http://www.catscratchreader.com/2011/10/19/2501145/the-draft-value-index-drafting-by-the-numbers

I am interested in hearing your thoughts on the system and how the numbers work out for your team, and also if you have any traded draft picks. This would help me a lot in putting together my mocks and planning for the draft. Thanks all. Look forward to the discussions.

my 20's are gone! i need a new coach for my 30's!

from 20-30 years old, ive had jack!! i need some change in my life at the end of of the year!

lets go jags!!! we must protect this house!

WE ARE JAGAUARS!!

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Is this the year of rookie qb's or am I missing some obscure fact?

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I thought I'd mention a couple positive things about our Jags. 

1....Since taking over as starter, Gabbert has thrown a TD pass in 4 straight games.  Once the WRs start holding onto the passes that actually hit them in the hands, this stat will continue and get even better.

2....MJD ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards.  With Gabbert continuing to improve, teams will not be able to focus on MJD and he will be even more of a weapon than he already is.

3....Our Defense is greatly improved from last year and keeps getting better.

Just think fellow Jags fans.... Once we get a coach who can actually mix it up and get the team to perform for the entire game, we should be a really good team.

Please add to the list and let's get some positive thoughts going around about our Jags.  The future looks really good.

It may be in the middle of the season but I’ve decided to go back and do a comprehensive analysis of our draft history as I think it has had an impact on our team’s current state. I went through each draft year since Jack Del Rio took over as head coach and grouped players from each draft class as either “Hits” or successful picks or “Misses”. Now obviously when you are doing this kind of analysis you need to take certain aspects in to consideration.

First off, I excluded the 2011 draft as these players are only 6 games into their rookie seasons. Second, I gave a little more leeway for success potential to the 2009 and 2010 draft classes as they are still early in their careers but you can read my analysis below on certain players. Finally I also had to take into consideration in which round each player was drafted, as that effects whether you would consider them a success. If two players are both career back-ups but one was drafted in the 1st round and another the 7th , obviously the 1st rounder would be a bust and the 7th rounder would be a success. See below for more details on that aspect.

The overall results are surprising as it the Jaguars drafting has had its fair share of successes as well as failures but its consistency from year to year that seems to be absent.

Poll

Outside of 2008 (obvious choice) which draft do you consider the worst in the JDR Era?

11%

2003

37 votes

5%

2004

16 votes

49%

2005

155 votes

5%

2006

18 votes

12%

2007

40 votes

7%

2009

22 votes

7%

2010

24 votes

312 votes | Poll has closed

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