As of this afternoon, Training Camp Eve, the Jaguars duo of rookie Defensive Ends was still unsigned.  Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves have yet to sign their rookie deals, leaving the Jaguars in a situation where they may be opening camp without their first and second round picks.

There's a couple of things at play here that need to be addressed.  First, simply by missing the first day or two of camp does not doom the Jaguars season.  In fact, coming to proper terms with Harvey is as much controlled by the Jaguars as it does Ken Kremer, Harvey's agent.  Top ten draft pick deals are notoriously complicated, with esclators, options, bonus schedules, and the looming spectre of an uncapped year in 2010.  I would much rather have the Jaguars and Derrick Harvey take a little longer and do the contract right than to have an issue in a few years because the sides rushed through the process.

Quentin Groves seems to be hampered by a lack of signings at and around where he was drafted, which effects the "slotting" that usually sets up contracts in the second round. 

Second, missing the Coaches Speech on Friday night, or the first shorts and t-shirt practice on Saturday will not effect Harvey or Groves' development in the Jaguars system.  If they missed the first week or two, there'd be an issue, but they are not quarterbacks, and they're not going to miss more than the first few days at most.

So there's no reason to panic.  Holdouts, in my opinion, are when a player declares that he's not showing up unless he gets more money, like Antoine Cason did with the Chargers, or Devin Hester with the Bears. Missing the first day or two because of slotting or specific contract language is acceptable, albeit imperfect. 

So don't worry about it.  They'll be in camp.  I expect Groves to make it on time, with Harvey a day or so later.  As long as they're in pads for the Oklahoma on Monday, they'll be fine.  If we get to Tuesday with either one unsigned, then by all means raise hell.

-Chris

Derrick Harvey: Future Millionare

With the Jacksonville Jaguars rapidly approaching training camp, it's useful to get an idea of what type of contract Derrick Harvey will recieve.  Considering that there is no reports of stalemate between the two sides, Harvey will be quickly signing up and packing his things for the opening of camp on Friday.  While several of Harvey's fellow top ten draft picks have signed with their respective teams, there's some ambiguity as to where his contract will fit into the mix. 

The Jamaal Anderson Effect:

To get a better sense of what Harvey is "worth", Jamaal Anderson of the Atlanta Falcons is an interesting barometer.  Anderson, also a defensive end, agreed to a five-year, 31 million dollar contract with 15.361 million in guaranteed money.  With Anderson and Harvey both playing defensive end, it'd seem like this contract would be a good guideline for at least starting negotiations.  Where there could be problems is in the incentive-rich language in Anderson's contract regarding sack totals.  Jamaal can earn various 5 million dollar escalators based on total sacks between 2007 and 2009.  While these sounded good before Anderson entered training camp, that he was held without a single sack might have him regretting putting so much into incentives.

That said, there's some use here in regards to Harvey.  Anderson received a 13.5% increase over the 8th pick in the 2006 draft, Donte Whitner.  If we apply the same inflation rate to Harvey's contract, we can estimate that he'll receive something like 17.431 million in guaranteed money and a total value of 35.185 million.  This, of course, assumes that 13.5 is a reasonable rate of inflation for rookie contracts. 

Mad Money:

Under normal circumstances, we'd assume the rate of inflation and run with the 19/35 number as the "best fit" for the draft slot.  Unfortunatly, the signing process of the 2008 class is difficult to pin down at this point.  The first pick, Jake Long, actually received less money than the 2007 pick, thus denying us a baseline.  The third pick, Matt Ryan, actually recieved a 51% increase from the previous 3rd pick, giving us a horrendous outlier.  Chris Long's contract is somewhere in the 29 million range, which is about a 6% increase, something far more realistic than Ryan's.  Darren McFadden recieved 15% more than Gaines Adams, but far more down to earth than Ryan.

There's simply not enough information right now to realistically project what teams are giving to this rookie class.  For Harvey and the Jaguars, all eyes are on Keith Rivers and Sedrick Ellis, the players selected before and after Harvey.  Should one of them sign over the next few days, the "slotting" becomes more clear.  On Harvey's side, his agent is probably keeping a close eye on what terms Vernon Ghoulston and the Jets agree to, thereby setting a reasonable stage for another defensive end two picks later.

Contract Predictions:

The high end of what Harvey could recieve, assuming a 5-year deal (which is very likely), would be a 15% increase over Anderson.  That would be a 17.66 million in guarenteed money, 35.65 million total value.  If the Jaguars were to lowball Harvey, with a "mere" 10% inflation from Anderson, it'd be 16.92 guarenteed, 34.1 million in total.  While it sounds strange for us mere mortals to consider three quarters of a million dollars a "small difference", the nuances of increasing Harvey's contract over Anderson is fairly insignifcant. 

As for my best guess, it'll be 17.5 million guaranteed, 35 million total , minus some of the crazy esclators that Anderson recieved.  Five years, of course, I don't imagine many agents are keen on the sixth year, unless it's a phony year designed to make the agent look good.

When will he sign?

Soon.  Very soon.  The Jaguars aren't going to go to camp without our rookie defensive ends.  They're just too important to start camp without them, and there is no obvious conflict about what Harvey should be paid.  The Jaguars are also smart enough not to give a young player a nearly incomprehensible amount of money with too much time before camp.  The last thing they need is another player in trouble.  Not to imply that Harvey is a potential problem, but there's nothing wrong with hedging your bets. 

Now, what's going to happen is that Harvey is going to sign for vastly more than I predicted in this post, thereby making me look like a fool.  In that case, I'll blame Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons for runing this for everyone.

-Chris

 
Quick Bytes: The daily digest of everything you need to know about the Jacksonville Jaguars (and other things).

: This, as you can tell, is a Hamstring.  Jerry Porter recently had surgery on his after hurting it during mini-camp.  People panicked.

: The Jaguars have four significant injuries to follow during training camp: defensive end Jeremy Mincey (wrist), safety Chad Nkang (wrist) and tight end George Wrighster (knee). This means that James Wyche probably gets the final roster spot at DE, someone else will have a chance to step up on special teams, and the tight ends behind Marcades are a muddled mess of potential and injuries.

: The Jaguars Jason Taylor saga is over.  He's now a member of the Washington Redskins after they suffered the worst opening of training camp in NFL history.  Nothing scares me more than early training camp injuries, they ruin teams.  No matter what happens during camp, I want nothing more than our roster to make it to opening day without getting hurt. 

:ESPN did a good thing.  Paul Kuharsky wrote the most fair-minded and accurate article on the state of the Jaguars and ticket sales that I've ever seen in the traditional media.  I'd love to think that he stumbled across some of the articles I've penned here on the subject, but I don't have the ego to think like that.

: This week is full of excitement as the Jaguars end their offseason hibernation and begin actual football-like-behavior.  It's been a rough few weeks, filled with nonsense like Matt Jones, Cocaine, and talks of LA and ticket sales, but it's about to turn into Oklahoma drills, roster cuts, and talking about practice. 

: I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves will sign contracts this week.  The Jaguars typically announce one at a time, thus giving the player (and their agent) a day to enjoy the media cycle, so that's something to look out for.  Word on the street is that Harvey is close, though there's nothing official to confirm that.  As soon as I know something concrete, it'll be posted here.

Enjoy your Monday, I'll be back throughout the day with updates and other things!

-Chris

  
Quick Bytes: The daily digest of everything you need to know about the Jacksonville Jaguars (and other things).

: Cornerback Scott Starks is working with the Clara White Mission to "strike out" homelessness at the Stars and Strikes Celebrity Charity Bowling on Saturday, July 19th.  The event is at the Jax Lane Bowling Center, and will have Rashean Mathis, Maurice Williams, Reggie Nelson, and Gerald Sensabaugh as well as "many more".  More information about the event can be found here.  Kudos to the Jaguars for participating and showing the good side of the team!

:Your humble narrator, me, did an interview with the Pigskin Podcast.  If you think I've got a face for radio, do yourself a favor and give it a listen.  I make a very funny pun about Matt Jones.  Well worth the download.

: Tennessee Titans defensive tackle and face stomper Albert Haynesworth did not come to a long-term contract extension before yesterday's deadline.  Haynesworth and the Titans were hoping to work out a contract and remove the franchise tag, but terms were not reached.  According to league rules, all the Titans can do is extend a one year deal and try again next offseason. 

: The Houston Texans over at Battle Red Blog smell blood in the water in the AFC South, just like we do with the Peyton Manning surgery.  Sure, the Texans also think they'll split the series with the Jaguars this year, but there's no shame in a little irrational exuberism.

: Stampede Blue, our somewhat annoying but generally friendly Colts fans, have a good take on the Packers and Brett Favre.  Why are the Colts talking about Brett?  Because it's (sadly) the big story in football right now. 

: Alex Marvez of Fox Sports writes about the importance of the pass-rushers first step.  Derrick Harvey and Jack Del Rio are interviewed.  Good Stuff.

I'll be back in the morning with a closer look at the defensive line, some Jaguars news, and other exciting things!

-Chris

Our interview with Jaguars.com Editor-in-Chief Vic Ketchman continues

Chris: On a more serious note, my expectation for the 2008 Jacksonville Jaguars is to eliminate the "yeah, but" from the team.  By that I mean casting off the "yeah, but they couldn't beat Indianapolis" or "yeah, but they didn't win the division", when discussing the team in comparison to the top tier of the NFL.  What are your expectations for the 2008 Jaguars?  Do you think the Jaguars will seriously contend for the division and give Indianapolis a challenge?

Vic: Yeah, I do and in fact I not only think they can, I think the expectation is that they will.  That should be the expectation.  In my opinion the goal going into this season as we sit here in June is win the division.  I know, the goal is always win the super bowl, but there is plenty of time for readjusting the goals heading into the postseason.  They'll be plenty of time to readjust the goals based on new circumstances that present themselves along the way.  You're going to have injuries, you're going to have a surprise sleeper team come from nowhere, you're going to have a situation heading into the postseason that you didn't expect.  There's going to be surprises.  So there will be plenty of time to readjust the goals, or not so much readjusting the goals, because it's always "win it all", but there's plenty of time to reorder our thoughts when the regular season comes to an end and this team heads into the postseason, if in fact it's going to make the playoffs.

At this point in time there is no doubt in my mind a very crystal clear goal is win the division.  I say that not only because this is a pursuit that has eluded this team for all these years while Indianapolis has dominated the division, but I say that because mostly because if you look at the schedule, you'll see that three of the first four games of the year are against the Jaguars opponents in the AFC South.

Chris: We'll know where we are in the division race before October 1st.

Vic: Exactly. The bottom line is that if at the end of september the Jaguars haven't won at least two of those three games, it's a bitter disappointment.

Chris: We'll know if the Jaguars will be a wild-card or a division contending team by that point.

Vic: Well, no.  I don't want to suggest that the season will be decided by the first of october.  What we'll know is if this team will disappoint us as far as it's performance against teams in the AFC South.  This team does not have a good record against AFC South teams and that's why it hasn't won the division. 

So in my opinion the goal has to be to beat division opponents and win the division.  I think that the immediacy of what the schedule presents makes that goal very obvious.  You've got to win division games, and you've got half the games you're going to play in the division in the first four weeks of the season.  So what does that tell you?  If that doesn't scream out that the goal is "win a division title", then I think you have to be trying to ignore it.

Chris: Huge topic shift here, if you don't mind.  What writers would you say influenced you in your development as a Journalist?

Vic: The honest answer there is that there are too many to name.  Here's why.  For just about all the years of my career I have been an editor.  Which means that I'm reading all the stuff of the guys on my staff, which means that I'm reading a lot of guys.  Guys on my staff, guys on other newspapers staffs, all the Jim Murray's, all the syndicated guys, and all of that stuff.  Everything I read impacts me.  Jim Murray would be the trendy answer for someone from my generation because he was such a dominant writer when I was at the most impressionable age.  His column on Woody Hayes is immortal.  

Jim Murray's column about losing his best friend, his eyesight, is something I'll never forget.  Clearly Jim Murray is one of those guys and one of those names I could throw at you that people would recognize, but there are a lot of guys whose names you wouldn't recognize that have had major impacts on the way I wanted to write.

One of the things I really liked about re-reading what I wrote from 1981, and I haven't read anything that I wrote from that far back until I read that recently on your website, but the thing that hit me from reading that was that my style hasn't changed.  You know what style is another word for?  Personality.  You are what you are.  You can't make a style. You can't sit down and say "I like Jim Murray style, I'm going to write Jim Murray style".  You can read Murray and get an appreciation for how he perceived the same thing that you've seen, but you can't write according to someone else's style.  Style is unique, it is your own, and if I got something from the Jim Murray's of the world it was inspiration.  I never felt that I was capable of imitating them, but I was clearly inspired by them.

I would urge everyone who has an appreciation for sports-writing to somehow look up or find the Jim Murray column on how he lost his best friend, his eyesight and read that column on what those eyes had seen.  It's a beautiful piece of sports-writing and it's what we don't do enough of these days.  We give too much of our time to the Chad Johnson's of the world who just blather and blather and tell the people nothing that they didn't already know.  Which is to say that it's all about them.  We don't have enough guys who give us real prose, who give us real literature, some real drama, some really worthwhile writing. 

Chris: One of the hot issues in journalism and sports-writing is the rise of the internet and the role of Blogging in sports coverage.  Specifically the tension that is growing between people like me, on the outside of coverage, and those on the inside in traditional journalism.   The debate recently embroiled Buzz Bissenger, author of Friday Night Lights, and Will Leitch of Deadspin.com in a very public fight.  What do you think of the rise of new media and how it relates to what you do?

Vic: Whatever you're going to ask, I can answer it this way.  I have one great advantage; I'm too small, too insignificant, and I'm too thick skinned to care.  Also, I believe, very very strongly in freedom of speech.  It's number one of all of our freedoms, it's number one.  I'd rather not be called dirty names, and there are probably more distinguished of expressing dissent, but if you want to rip me, that's OK, go ahead.

Chris: It's the readers right to choose what they read?

Vic: Yeah, I'm OK with it.  I'm too small and too insignificant to think I'm too big to be criticized.  I am clearly not above it.

Chris: If you had to identify something to watch out for as a potential problem for the 2008 Jaguars, a problem area or position, what would you keep an eye on as we get into Training Camp?

Vic: I have tried to answer that question.  While alone, I'll be driving down the road and I'll think to myself  "What's the trouble spot on this team?, come on Ketchman, every team has one, you're missing it".  And I can''t come up with an answer.

I have some candidates: for whatever reasons my instincts tell me that the defensive line is still an issue.  You've drafted two guys, but I think it's unfair to expect them to be Bubba Smith and Deacon Jones in their rookie seasons.  We've counted on Rob Meier for so many years to be the answer at defensive end or defensive tackle whenever we've needed him, but we've never counted on him to be a starter.  That's a new role for him.  It's not like coming off the bench for a play here and a play there or a game here and a game there.  John Henderson was up and down last season, was that just a departure from what he has been in previous years or is it something to be concerned about.  I don't know what the answer to these are, but if there was one place I could put my finger on as a place of concern, it would probably be the defensive line.

Can Rob Meier be an every down, every game player?  Will John Henderson play like he did at the end of last season or will he be like he was at the beginning of the season?  Can Paul Spicer do it again?  Can Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves do it right away?  Those are a lot of questions.  That's why I would point my finger at the defensive line.  But remember, the answer to those questions could be on the positive side?

Chris: Do you think Defensive End Reggie Hayward could be a "surprise cut" through training camp?  Looking at the roster it seems unlikely that the Jaguars would carry as many players as the have on the Defensive Line.  It's almost like Hayward is competing less against the rookies at defensive end and more against how many players the Jaguars want to carry on other positions like offensive line, etc.

Vic: He's competing against Harvey and Groves.  They drafted two defensive ends, figure it out.

Chris: Yes, Reggie is obviously competing against the rookies, what I mean is that Reggie's future with the team could depend on how many players they want to keep at other positions.

Vic: Chris, they didn't draft defensive ends with their first two picks because they liked the depth they had.  Clearly the intent is to upgrade defensive end.  Reggie is being challenged.  We know about his Achilles injury and that's why he's being challenged.  Before that injury, if he was the guy he was before he got hurt, they'd never of made those picks.  These were need draft picks and the Jaguars jockeyed themselves to into position to fit themselves where the player was. 

You betcha, he's facing a big challenge.  He's a great guy, he's a guy I'll rooting for him every step of the way.  I love the guy.  he's a sensational interview, he's a real reporters dream.

Chris: On Matt Jones. There were some reports that there an element of punishment as to what was happening to Matt Jones and OTA's.  Specifically that the team was going to hold onto Matt for as long as possible and then release him after most teams have set their rosters.

Vic: I have no information along those lines.  I will tell you this, that I watch very closely for these kind of indicators.  I don't try to play scout, I try to play reporter.  I know what a reporter should be looking for.  What I saw during OTA's was Todd Monken, the Wide Receivers Coach, working with Matt Jones individually before and after every practice every day, throwing him ball after ball after ball trying to improve his catching skills.  Working with him in an individual capacity day after day after day.  Why would a coach dedicate all that extra team if a decision has already been made to release him.  Those are things that a reporter looks for.  Forget all that cover 2, cover 3 crap, I'll leave that for the experts, the ex players and their analysis.  I'm not a scout, I'm not an ex player, I'm a reporter.  When I go out to practice, I look for little things that will tell me what the truth is.   The truth is that Todd Monken gave more of his extra time during spring practices to Matt Jones than any other wide receiver on the team.  That's a fact.  That's an opinion of what I believe is a fact.

It's up to Matt, they haven't quit on him, it's up to Matt.  He'll decide based on what he dose during training camp what his position and place with the team will be.

Chris: Do you think placing a guy like Mike Walker on the PUP list is an option for buying the Jaguars a little more time to figure out what to do at receiver?

Vic: I'm not clairvoyant.  I know that he's got an issue with his knee and that he has to prove to Jack Del Rio that his knee can hold up to the daily regimen of training camp.  If they see that he's the same guy day after day after day that will indicate that the knee is ready to take the punishment.  If he's not as good tomorrow or the day after and they see that there is a decline then they have to react accordingly, whatever that means.

In the last week of OTA's, he was better every day.  That's the good thing right now.  He only practiced for the last 8 or nine days of spring practices, but he was better every day and really, really, had an eye-popping practice on the final day.  All the indicators there are good.  They'll be watching closely.

Thank you Vic for taking the time to talk with us! 

Buddy Ryan, Gregg Williams and Jack Del Rio: Will their defensive philosophies create conflict or championships?

The Buddy Ryan Effect:

Last week, we discussed the history, philosophy, and possible effects of introducing Gregg Williams to the Jacksonville Jaguars.  One name that comes up with any research into  Gregg Williams is his tutelage under Buddy Ryan.  Ryan is best known for developing the defense that would define the 1985 Chicago Bears, the 46 defense. Fans of the Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Oilers, and Arizona Cardinals might disagree with that statement, of course, but the legacy of Ryan is in his approach to defenses.  Gregg Williams is considered a disciple of Ryan, though he only technically worked under Ryan in 1993 with the Oilers.  Though their time together was short, Williams defensive career is centered on emulating and developing the concepts established by Buddy Ryan.  The "attack style" reputation of the Jaguars new defensive coordinator is ripped straight from the playbook of Ryan.

To better understand what Williams is going to bring to Jacksonville, we must first look at Buddy Ryan's contributions to Gregg's philosophy and how to translate that to the Jaguars.

On Attacking the Quarterback:

"Buddy Ryan said it best. It's hard for a quarterback to throw with tears in his eyes. We brought the whole house. We left our two corners back. Bledsoe went hot and got the ball out quickly. Terry Glenn caught it..."

The point of emphasis of a Buddy Ryan defense is to attack the pass protection in as many different ways as possible in order to shut down the quarterback.  The object, simply put, is to expose the protection and eliminate the passer.  It is not a senseless throwing of players at the offensive line in an act of desperation, but the specific and methodical attack of the offensive line in order to expose weaknesses in protection.  Crudely put, it's a pack of velociraptors testing the fences in Jurassic Park, rather than the overwhelming but clumsy Tyrannosaurus Rex knocking down the towers with brute force.

While blitzing is nothing new to the NFL, Ryan took things to a whole different level with the development of the 46 defense.

This formation is named for Doug Plank's jersey number.  Plank was a hard-hitting, hard-nosed, and nasty storung safety that allowed for the development of this formation.  Notice all the players on the line of scrimmage.  J and C are the strongside and weakside linebackers, (Jack and charlie in Ryan's system), with the mike or middle linebacker lined up between and behind the charlie linebacker and the defensive end.  One defensive end is lined up directly over an offensive guard, one defensive tackle is directly over center (like a nose tackle), the other defensive tackle is right over the offensive guard, and finally there is a defensive end just outside the right tackle.

You'll notice that the strong safety is as close to the line of scrimmage as the middle linebacker.  The strong safety would play the role of a run-stuffing linebacker or blitzer, leaving the free safety and cornerbacks in largely man-to-man coverage.  Ryan could very easily shift his blitzers and cover men based on down, distance, and the offensive in front of him.  The jack, charlie, or mike linebackers were fast enough to cover as well as blitz, though the latter was clearly preferred.  What was important for Ryan was to probe the pass protection and identify weaknesses that could be exploited later.  If linemen were making their blocks based on certain reads or looks, Ryan could call a blitz that took advantage of that reaction and find a way to leave a man unblocked.

To fully understand what Buddy Ryan developed, remember that
Bill Walsh would develop a short drop and well timed passing offense as a reaction to the blitz packages developed by Ryan.  The "west coast offense" is seen by some football academics as a reaction to the aggressive attacks of defenses like the 1985 Chicago Bears.  It is a slight oversimplification to say that it is only because of Ryan, but it is without doubt a factor.

On the Philosophy:

While the 46 defense is a major part of Buddy Ryan’s defensive toolbox, his philosophy is much broader than a personnel grouping.  Much like when Gregg Williams claimed during a press conference that the Jaguars were going to use every defensive system ever created, Buddy Ryan used just about everything.  In his 1993 Houston Oliers playbook, Ryan schemes a 4-3, 4-4, 46, 3-4, and everything in-between.  Again, the crux of his philosophy is to probe the offensive pass protection and exploit a weakness, using one base defense all the time would be ineffective at exploiting the vulnerabilities and would remove the element of surprise and confusion from the attack.

To explore the Ryan and Williams philosophy further, we excerpt from the 1993 Oilers Defensive Playbook. 

"Our defensive philosophy is simple.  We will do anything and everything it takes to win, within the rules.  We can only control what we do on our side of the ball, therefore we will approach every game with the plan of winning the game with defense"

Coachspeak, of course, but just the introduction:

"We will keep constant pressure on our opponent and their offense.  Our multiple defensive scheme will hamper their ability to identify our intentions by giving them an ever-changing picture on defense."

"A quarterback has never completed a pass when he was flat on his back.  We must hit the QB hard and often.  QB’s are over-paid, over-rated, pompous bastards and must be punished.  Great pass coverage is a direct result of a great pass rush, and a great pass rush is simply a relentless desire to get to the QB"

If Gregg Williams can bring this to Jacksonville this fall, we will be in for one hell of a show. 

On the penetrating style of defense:

"In our penetrating defense the purpose of the defense is to force mistakes and throw our opponent for a loss and place great pressure on the passer.  We will use penetrating type of defense a maority of the time in all positions on the field.  The penetrating defense requires ability to read on the move.  We must have great effort in getting into proper pursuit patterns.  We feel, with the speed and ability of our team, we can achieve great success with these defenses."

What does this mean for Jacksonville?

This look back at Buddy Ryan is a healthy mix of speculation and optimism.  The 46 defense is rarely used in the current NFL, Gregg Williams used it on occasion in Tennessee and Rex Ryan will experiment with the formation in Baltimore from time to time.  It's unrealistic to expect Williams to completely undo everything from Jack Del Rio and Mike Smith in one season.  This is why we distinguised between scheme and philosophy in the breakdown of Buddy Ryan and Gregg Williams' approach. 

While it should not be surprising to see the Jaguars come out in a 46 at least once during training camp, it's implimentation as a serious part of our defense is very much in doubt.  The Jaguars lack a serious contender at nose tackle, though situationally it might work with Henderson or McDaniel.  The Jaguars will instead embrace the methodical attack of a Ryan defense, allowing the team to attack the quarterback through carefully measured pressure rather than overwhelming blitzing. 

Much of this depends on the development of our pass-rushers.  Should Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey show promise in their first season, the amount of attacking should be very high.  If the rookies are slow to develop or were injuries to mount, Williams will adjust accordingly and become a bend-don't-break defense. 

Either way, there will be a visible change from the Mike Smith defense to the Gregg Williams defense.  Smith was unafraid to attack when he had the ability, though the chess game of the Buddy Ryan/Gregg Williams system is different by degree than what the Jaguars had previously.  Frankly, we have a great deal to be excited about.  Whatever happens, it'll certainly be uncomfortable for the Mannings, Brady's, and Cutler's of the AFC.

From the department of misleading statements:

Two "news" items caught my attention this morning.  The first comes from Vito Stellino at the Florida Times-Union.  In this article, Stellino explains some of the contract nuances surrounding Running Back Chauncey Washington, explores his roster possibilities, and takes a look at what it will take to sign Derrick Harvey.

ProFootballTalk, a site that trends toward negative stories in general, but especially toward the Jacksonville Jaguars, linked to the Times-Union story, under this headline:

Will the Jaguars have trouble signing first-round draft pick Derrick Harvey?

No.

Because Stellino speculated that Harvey would be the most difficult pick to sign, based on his draft spot in the first round and the rarity of 2nd round or later picks to hold out, PFT implies that the Jaguars will somehow fail at signing their pick.  Stellino, whether he intended it or not, leads his readers to believe that Harvey is likely to hold out based on the top ten pick and being represented by CAA and Tom Condon.:

Harvey is represented by Ken Kremer of CAA football, an agency that includes Tom Condon, who represented former Jaguars quarterback Byron Leftwich when he was a holdout in 2003.

This is misleading.  Condon and Kremer represent several current Jaguars, none of which are mentioned.  Clint Ingram, Vincent Manuwai, Mike Peterson, Tutan Reyes, and Maurice Williams are CAA clients and have been quiet as far as contracts are concerned.  Williams even received a new contract withiout too much headache.

Instead of implying that Harvey would holdout like Byron Leftwich did five years ago, he could have just as well said this:

Harvey is represented by Ken Kremer of CAA football, an agency that includes Tom Condon, who represents Jaguars offensive lineman Maurice Williams who received a contract extension in 2008.

Connecting Harvey's current contract negotiations with those of Byron Leftwich lead the reader to believe that there will be problems in getting the player signed before training camp when there is no reason to believe that could happen.  Signing a franchise quarterback is always more complicated than signing a defensive end, no matter where the player was drafted.  Joe Flacco will have a more complicated contract than Harvey even though Joe was drafted later inthe first round. 

To imply, however thinnly, that because Harvey is with CAA, and CAA held a player out in the past is a poor way to create a story out of nothing.  Even if Harvey did holdout for a week into training camp, it's much different than what happens with a quarterback.  Harvey does not have to get into a comfortable relationship with receivers, linemen, and running backs, he just has to be ready to rush the quarterback.  Paul Vance, who negotiates for the Jaguars, has a good record of getting picks signed and into camp, so there's really no reason to worry.

The only reason I even bring up this bit of media nitpicking is that PFT has an uncanny knack for setting the national tone of coverage.  For better or for worse, people in high places read PFT, and when things are quiet like they are now, suddenly questions could be rasied about Harvey, and I'd like to cut off any worry as quickly as possible.

So shame on you PFT for running with the negitive take on a non-story, and shame on you Vito Stellino for leading your readers to a misleading conclusion.

-Chris

Welcome to a very special edition of "Mythbusters".  Today's episode focuses on an NFL team that is surrounded by poorly researched talking points and rehashed arguments that hold little water.  Rather than repeat the same nonsense, Big Cat Country will attempt to settle these "myths" once and for all.  If you're looking for actual Mythbusters, feel free to look at these fun pictures.

Myth  "Jacksonville is a "College Town".

College Town: the two words that are required to be mentioned in the first three sentences of any national coverage of the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The city of Jacksonville, according to this myth, is unable to maintain a relationship with the Jaguars because their focus is on the college game of the University of Florida and Florida State University, with a little bit of University of Georgia and University of Miami tossed in for flavor.  Further explanations of this myth clam that people who are college football fans first and foremost cannot appreciate the Jaguars style of play because they are used to high scoring one-sided games.  Another twist on the myth implies that "college town" fans expect college type seasons of 10-1 or 11-0, rather than the realistic 10-6, 9-7 of a good NFL team.

Evidence to support this myth typically involves stadium attendance at the Florida/Georgia game, proximity to Gainesville and Tallahassee, and the occasional "local blackout" of Jaguars games.

Attacking the Evidence:

The Florida-Georgia game requires up to 80,000 seats in Jacksonville Municipal Stadium through the use of temporary seating.  JMS's "capacity" is 76,787, with the Jaguars covering 10,000 seats for about 67,000 seats for Jaguars games.  Because 80,000 people attend a once a year game from two entire states, the city of Jacksonville is seen as a college town that cannot support an NFL team.  Vic Ketchman of Jaguars.com makes a very good case:

Florida-Georgia drives the perception that Jacksonville is a college football town because seats are added. Hey, if Penn State and Ohio State played at Heinz Field they’d have to add seats. Does that make Pittsburgh a college football town? The same would be true if Florida and Georgia played in the Georgia Dome, or Texas and Oklahoma played in Texas Stadium, or Alabama and Tennessee played in Nashville. Pro football doesn’t have 100,000-seat stadiums. Pro football goes for high demand, not high supply.

Interestingly, citing the Florida-Georgia game is used as evidence of the "college town", but the fact that the ACC Championship game is suffering a critical depleation of sales and is moving from Jacksonville to Tampa or Charlotte gets little mention. Going from 72,749 in 2005, then 62,850 in 2006 and 53,212 in a "college town" (remember, FSU and UM are in the ACC), should indicate that there's more to the situation.

The Stadium:

This of course assumes that filling a stadium with 80,000 fans once is the same thing as filling a stadium with 67,000 fans eight times a year.  I say eight times, because I hardly expect full attendance at preseason games.  Of the "blackouts" last season, all of them had full stadiums on Sunday.  What happens is that the NFL decides to blackout a game based on a deadline a few days before the game.  Ticket sales, on the other hand, go right up and through game day.  The stadium is full, or damn close to it on Sundays.  We're talking about a shortfall of maybe a thousand tickets or less.

Jacksonville has a huge stadium for a market of its size.  With the seats uncovered, it is in the top five largest stadiums in the NFL.  Based on market size, the number determined by the league to represent the Jaguars "turf", has a population of 1,100,491.    The average MSA size is 4,485,695.  New York City, with over 21 million, is the largest MSA.    As a comparison, Indianapolis has a MSA of 1.6 million, and the RCA Dome seats 57,980/Lucas Oil Stadium 63,000.  A market with a half million more potential buyers has a stadium with significantly less seats.  The Jaguars at their absolute worst in ticket sales (2000) would have sold out the RCA dome in most games. 

The number that matters most is the Population per Seat figure.  There are 15.08 potential ticket buyers in the Jacksonville MSA per seat.  That's the highest figure in the league.  The league average is almost 70 per seat.  That means that four times as many fans, by percentage, are going to Jaguars games than the NFL average. 

That indicates the opposite of a "college town", when more people are buying tickets than the NFL average. JaxJagfl.com does a fantastic job breaking down these numbers, if you'd like more information.  For the Jaguars to be "right sized" for a 1 to 70 ratio of seats to population, the stadium would require less than 17,000 seats, something that's absurd.  The Jaguars sell more seats per population than any other team in the NFL, with the occasional exception of Buffalo.

Buffalo, by the way, has a million people in Rochester, and a million or two in Toronto. Jacksonville has an Ocean, Daytona, Gainesville, and I-10 as it's nearest neighbors and they're still selling seats.

Television:

The Florida-Georgia game was the second most watched sporting event in the Jacksonville MSA last year.  Meanwhile, the highest was Colts at Jaguars, and 15 of the top 20 sporting events were NFL games.  Again, I'll defer to Vic Ketchman , who has access to ratings numbers that I do not:

The Jaguars are so dominant in the ratings that their preseason game in Green Bay got substantially higher ratings than three of the five college games in the top 20. The Patriots at Cowboys game also got substantially higher ratings than three of the five college games in the top 20. The Bucs at Jaguars preseason game got a 14.4 to a 14.6 for Florida at Kentucky. When you look at those numbers, it’s impossible to call this a college town.

The Jacksonville Gators:

Yes, there is a very popular football team 90 minutes to the southwest of Jacksonville.  The Florida Gators are the most popular college team in Florida, and Jacksonville is home to many of their fans, alumni, and supporters.  Tim Tebow is from a High School just south of the city (Nease), Fred Taylor is from UF, and the Jaguars last two first round picks are from UF. 

Some speculate that there is an ulterior motive in selecting Reggie Nelson and Derrick Harvey, that they'll attract Gator fans to Jaguars games.  This is silly.  I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt that any benefit of ticket sales is completely secondary to the player being selected by the Jaguars.  No team worth its salt would ever select a player based on ticket sales rather than team needs/best player available.  It's irresponsible to assume the Jaguars would operate otherwise. 

It is certainly an added benefit though.  I see nothing wrong with people following the Gators and the Jaguars, other than my Florida State bias, of course.  I follow college football very closely, and I'm perfectly capable of understanding both.  The nonsense about fans expecting college type seasons out of the Jaguars is the most condescending argument I've ever heard.  What they're really saying is that they think Jacksonville is too dumb/redneck/poor/etc to understand the difference between the college game and the "more sophisticated" NFL game.

Why does the myth stick?

It's simple really, there's just not enough time to explain all these factors.  People react to what they see.  When the Jaguars hosted the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football, it was shortly after the Stadium needed the temporary seating for another event.  So when the National Media comes to town, not only do they see 10,000 covered seats, but an extra 8,000 seats that are only used for the big college games and the Super Bowl.  They use their eyes and write a story under deadline based on perception.  Perception, in this case, does not equal reality.

Frankly, Jacksonville will fight with this perception until every game is sold out in advance and the words 'blackout" are never mentioned.  If we have to debate and explain things like MSA and seat per population we've already accepted the media's premise that Jacksonville isn't an NFL town.  The very act of defending the city adds to the perception that it's too small, and draws more bad attention.  It will only be when the Jaguars can avoid this subject entirely, that this myth will die.

Results:

I think it's conclusive that Jacksonville is NOT a mere "college town", and that the continued existence of this myth is a combination of lazy journalism and poorly constructed arguments.

I'm sure Jamie and Adam would agree that this myth is...

BUSTED

Next time on Mythbusters, a look at the Jacksonville Jaguars and the dreaded "relocation".

-Chris

Quick Bytes: The daily digest of everything you need to know about the Jacksonville Jaguars (and other things).

:  ESPN's Pat Yasinskas spent some time in Jacksonville this weekend.  His first article examines the expectations surrounding Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves:

If Groves and Harvey can share a few more encounters standing around fallen opposing quarterbacks, the Jaguars might be a lot better than OK.

:  Yasinskas also looks at Jaguars Quarterbacks Coach Mike Shula and his up-and-down experience as a coach:

Fans in Tampa Bay and Tuscaloosa might not want to hear it or believe it, but Shula is a very good coach and he's finally landed in a great situation. As Jacksonville's quarterbacks coach, Shula has been a driving force behind the emergence of David Garrard.

: Michael Wright of the Florida Times-Union writes about the uniqueness of the Jaguars minicamp :

The Jaguars' two-day minicamp began Friday, their latest start under coach Jack Del Rio. The team hopes that will result in fewer injuries (by giving players more time in offseason conditioning) and allow rookies to adjust to NFL life.

: Wright also looks at the struggles of Cleo Lemon, the ones that were painfully obvious this weekend.  Lemon shall be referred to from here on out as the "three million dollar man":

: Gene Frenette exposes some problems with Jaguars ticket sales in a well-timed piece that is sure to continue the national media's obsession with Jacksonville's ticket woes.  I implore everyone to help stop this by buying tickets:

No doubt it's a tough economy, and people must make difficult choices with their entertainment dollars. But with the NFL angling to put an existing team in Los Angeles in the next five years, the last thing Jacksonville wants is to give an impression that this market has trouble filling the low-priced seats (51,000) when the Jaguars' football arrow is pointing up.

: Alex Marvez of FoxSports.com takes a closer look at the quietest first round draft pick in recent history, the critcially important but media shy Derrick Harvey:

Contrary to other reports , the Jacksonville Jaguars have used the 2008 offseason to announce to the division that they are the team to beat in the AFC South.  While the Indianapolis Colts deserve the respect due to a six-time division winner, there is no reason to assume that the reigning champs have done enough to hold their position at the top of the South.

Yes, this article intended as a bit of Counter Battery fire toward my good friend and Indianapolis Colts writer over at Stampede Blue.  Big Blue Shoe, as he calls himself, delights in mocking our Jaguars whenever possible, in what can only be a defense mechanism to the pain and suffering that Jacksonville is going to give their team in 2008. 

And we can forgive him, it's merely one step in the Kubler-Ross "Stages of Grief ": In this case, our fellow Colts fans are deeply in denial of the changes and progress made by the Jaguars during this offseason.  Denial manifests itself in peculiar ways in a fanbase,  the Colts will find their evidence in attacking statistics from last season that make the Jaguars look like an Arena League team and hope that the trend continues.

Specifically:

Now before I get flamed, hear me out. The Jaguars are a very good team at shutting down an opponents running game. However, against the pass, the Jaguars flat out suck. They can't pressure the QB and their secondary is highly suspect. The Jaguars defense in 2007 allowed opposing playoff QBs to complete 78% of their passes for 599 yards, 5 TDs and 2 INTs.

In the modern NFL, that is a sucky defense.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but there is simply no way the Jacksonville Jaguars field anywhere close to that poor of a pass defense in 2008.  The Jaguars secondary in 2007 featured a rookie tossed into the starting role with Reggie Nelson,  a 33 year old Sammy Knight playing a fill-in role with Gerald Sensabaugh on Injured Reserve, an Injured Rashean Mathis, and a healthy but out-of-position Brian Williams rounding out the starters. 

Secondary Concerns:

There was a reason that Sammy Knight often led the team in tackles week in and week out, that's because he could not cover a tight end to save his life and would get targeted every single week.  That the Jaguars held together any sort of defense with his inability to cover is still remarkable.  Sammy Knight is now a New York Giant, and we won't have to worry about him again.

In his place the Jaguars will feature Brian Williams, a former Cornerback that is a natural at Safety.  In fact, he's a bigger version of the Colts safety Bob Sanders.  Williams is going to move to Strong Safety and be used all over the field by Gregg Williams, both in run support and in pass coverage.  Where tight ends ran right by Sammy and were wide open, they'll have a guy that shut down Randy Moss running side by side.

Let's not also forget that our Free Safety, Reggie Nelson, will have another year under his belt.  Gregg Williams and Donnie Henderson will demand that Reggie steps up the intellectual side of his game, especially considering that he'll be playing a lot more center field with the Jaguars likely emphasis on pressuring the quarterback.

Finally, add in a healthy Gerald Sensabaugh, who struggled in September because he was playing with a torn labrum, and went on injured reserve when he tore the other one, and Florence/Mathis on the outside, and you've got a recipe for a huge improvement in our secondary.

The Quarterback must go down, and he must go down hard:

Before we discuss our changes at defensive end, lets take a moment consider the messages sent from the front office about our defensive line.  The Jaguars, I will admit, have made mistakes with their draft picks.  Where they are batting .1000 are in resigning and extending their players. You simply do not hear about the Jaguars offering their players big extensions and then having the player fail to perform.  The Jaguars sent Marcus Stroud to Buffalo and extended the contracts of Rob Meier and Tony McDaniel, both of which will be critical in the new "Teal Curtain".  It's to be expected that the Colts disregard Tony McDaniel as a threat, they've never really seen him.  Let's just say that Peyton Manning will have a 6-7, 310lb beast in the middle, just like Stroud used to be.

The outside, of course, is going to be manned on occasion by the rookies, Derrek Harvey and Quentin Groves.  It's completely fair to assume that because they are first year players that their impact will be minimal.  The problem with that reasoning is that both of these players will be used as pass rushers, an area where physical gifts are more important than experience.  When Quentin Groves takes the field on 3rd and 7, it will not be terribly hard for him to figure out what he's supposed to do.  Harvey has it a little tougher, as you'll see him playing the run and the pass more frequently.

In either case, it's not as though they'll be all alone on the ends.  Reggie Hayward will be two years removed from his injury, Paul Spicer will eventually be extended, and the group will have a good shot at being this years New York Giants in regards to attacking the quarterback.

Absolute Nonsense:

I hate to nitpick, but this is the most deranged thing I've ever read:

There is not one single area where Jacksonville is "better" than Indy. Maybe their special teams coverage units. Maybe. Everything else is a clear advantage for the Colts. Indy's QB, WRs, o-line, d-line, TEs, CBs, safeties, LBers, kicker, and punter are all better than Jacksonville's. Even the running back position favors Indy.

I'll grant Quarterback, I'll even concede the offensive line and Tight Ends.  But to say that the Colts have better Linebackers, Defensive Line, and Secondary than the Jaguars is an ignorant statement.  The Jaguars use their linebackers a little differently than the Colts do in the "Dungy 2", and really can't be compared directly.  The combination of Durrant, Ingram, Peterson, and Smith give the Jaguars three guys who can play every combination of linebacker spots, the speed to play sideline to sideline, and a nasty hard hitting attitude.  I'd take our bench linebacker over any of the Colts starters.  Remember, the biggest knock on the Jaguars pass rushers is that they're young.  None of our guys are coming off of a Lis Franc, like Mr. Freeney.

And the Running Backs?  Are you serious?  I don't care who the third and fourth running backs are on the Colts roster, Fred and Maurice are enough to do the trick.  Call me crazy, but were something terrible to happen, Greg Jones would surprise a lot of people with his ability to run the ball. 

It is absolute absurdity to assume that a team is completely and utterly the master of another.  The Jacksonville Jaguars of 2008 will be unlike any the Colts have ever seen.  While it's easy to write the team off because they've not proved anything on the field yet, the Jaguars have made all the right moves to overtake the Colts in the AFC South.

Enjoy the Homerism for now Indy, in a few months we'll give you a reality check...

-Chris