Our interview with Jaguars.com Editor-in-Chief Vic Ketchman continues

Chris: On a more serious note, my expectation for the 2008 Jacksonville Jaguars is to eliminate the "yeah, but" from the team.  By that I mean casting off the "yeah, but they couldn't beat Indianapolis" or "yeah, but they didn't win the division", when discussing the team in comparison to the top tier of the NFL.  What are your expectations for the 2008 Jaguars?  Do you think the Jaguars will seriously contend for the division and give Indianapolis a challenge?

Vic: Yeah, I do and in fact I not only think they can, I think the expectation is that they will.  That should be the expectation.  In my opinion the goal going into this season as we sit here in June is win the division.  I know, the goal is always win the super bowl, but there is plenty of time for readjusting the goals heading into the postseason.  They'll be plenty of time to readjust the goals based on new circumstances that present themselves along the way.  You're going to have injuries, you're going to have a surprise sleeper team come from nowhere, you're going to have a situation heading into the postseason that you didn't expect.  There's going to be surprises.  So there will be plenty of time to readjust the goals, or not so much readjusting the goals, because it's always "win it all", but there's plenty of time to reorder our thoughts when the regular season comes to an end and this team heads into the postseason, if in fact it's going to make the playoffs.

At this point in time there is no doubt in my mind a very crystal clear goal is win the division.  I say that not only because this is a pursuit that has eluded this team for all these years while Indianapolis has dominated the division, but I say that because mostly because if you look at the schedule, you'll see that three of the first four games of the year are against the Jaguars opponents in the AFC South.

Chris: We'll know where we are in the division race before October 1st.

Vic: Exactly. The bottom line is that if at the end of september the Jaguars haven't won at least two of those three games, it's a bitter disappointment.

Chris: We'll know if the Jaguars will be a wild-card or a division contending team by that point.

Vic: Well, no.  I don't want to suggest that the season will be decided by the first of october.  What we'll know is if this team will disappoint us as far as it's performance against teams in the AFC South.  This team does not have a good record against AFC South teams and that's why it hasn't won the division. 

So in my opinion the goal has to be to beat division opponents and win the division.  I think that the immediacy of what the schedule presents makes that goal very obvious.  You've got to win division games, and you've got half the games you're going to play in the division in the first four weeks of the season.  So what does that tell you?  If that doesn't scream out that the goal is "win a division title", then I think you have to be trying to ignore it.

Chris: Huge topic shift here, if you don't mind.  What writers would you say influenced you in your development as a Journalist?

Vic: The honest answer there is that there are too many to name.  Here's why.  For just about all the years of my career I have been an editor.  Which means that I'm reading all the stuff of the guys on my staff, which means that I'm reading a lot of guys.  Guys on my staff, guys on other newspapers staffs, all the Jim Murray's, all the syndicated guys, and all of that stuff.  Everything I read impacts me.  Jim Murray would be the trendy answer for someone from my generation because he was such a dominant writer when I was at the most impressionable age.  His column on Woody Hayes is immortal.  

Jim Murray's column about losing his best friend, his eyesight, is something I'll never forget.  Clearly Jim Murray is one of those guys and one of those names I could throw at you that people would recognize, but there are a lot of guys whose names you wouldn't recognize that have had major impacts on the way I wanted to write.

One of the things I really liked about re-reading what I wrote from 1981, and I haven't read anything that I wrote from that far back until I read that recently on your website, but the thing that hit me from reading that was that my style hasn't changed.  You know what style is another word for?  Personality.  You are what you are.  You can't make a style. You can't sit down and say "I like Jim Murray style, I'm going to write Jim Murray style".  You can read Murray and get an appreciation for how he perceived the same thing that you've seen, but you can't write according to someone else's style.  Style is unique, it is your own, and if I got something from the Jim Murray's of the world it was inspiration.  I never felt that I was capable of imitating them, but I was clearly inspired by them.

I would urge everyone who has an appreciation for sports-writing to somehow look up or find the Jim Murray column on how he lost his best friend, his eyesight and read that column on what those eyes had seen.  It's a beautiful piece of sports-writing and it's what we don't do enough of these days.  We give too much of our time to the Chad Johnson's of the world who just blather and blather and tell the people nothing that they didn't already know.  Which is to say that it's all about them.  We don't have enough guys who give us real prose, who give us real literature, some real drama, some really worthwhile writing. 

Chris: One of the hot issues in journalism and sports-writing is the rise of the internet and the role of Blogging in sports coverage.  Specifically the tension that is growing between people like me, on the outside of coverage, and those on the inside in traditional journalism.   The debate recently embroiled Buzz Bissenger, author of Friday Night Lights, and Will Leitch of Deadspin.com in a very public fight.  What do you think of the rise of new media and how it relates to what you do?

Vic: Whatever you're going to ask, I can answer it this way.  I have one great advantage; I'm too small, too insignificant, and I'm too thick skinned to care.  Also, I believe, very very strongly in freedom of speech.  It's number one of all of our freedoms, it's number one.  I'd rather not be called dirty names, and there are probably more distinguished of expressing dissent, but if you want to rip me, that's OK, go ahead.

Chris: It's the readers right to choose what they read?

Vic: Yeah, I'm OK with it.  I'm too small and too insignificant to think I'm too big to be criticized.  I am clearly not above it.

Chris: If you had to identify something to watch out for as a potential problem for the 2008 Jaguars, a problem area or position, what would you keep an eye on as we get into Training Camp?

Vic: I have tried to answer that question.  While alone, I'll be driving down the road and I'll think to myself  "What's the trouble spot on this team?, come on Ketchman, every team has one, you're missing it".  And I can''t come up with an answer.

I have some candidates: for whatever reasons my instincts tell me that the defensive line is still an issue.  You've drafted two guys, but I think it's unfair to expect them to be Bubba Smith and Deacon Jones in their rookie seasons.  We've counted on Rob Meier for so many years to be the answer at defensive end or defensive tackle whenever we've needed him, but we've never counted on him to be a starter.  That's a new role for him.  It's not like coming off the bench for a play here and a play there or a game here and a game there.  John Henderson was up and down last season, was that just a departure from what he has been in previous years or is it something to be concerned about.  I don't know what the answer to these are, but if there was one place I could put my finger on as a place of concern, it would probably be the defensive line.

Can Rob Meier be an every down, every game player?  Will John Henderson play like he did at the end of last season or will he be like he was at the beginning of the season?  Can Paul Spicer do it again?  Can Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves do it right away?  Those are a lot of questions.  That's why I would point my finger at the defensive line.  But remember, the answer to those questions could be on the positive side?

Chris: Do you think Defensive End Reggie Hayward could be a "surprise cut" through training camp?  Looking at the roster it seems unlikely that the Jaguars would carry as many players as the have on the Defensive Line.  It's almost like Hayward is competing less against the rookies at defensive end and more against how many players the Jaguars want to carry on other positions like offensive line, etc.

Vic: He's competing against Harvey and Groves.  They drafted two defensive ends, figure it out.

Chris: Yes, Reggie is obviously competing against the rookies, what I mean is that Reggie's future with the team could depend on how many players they want to keep at other positions.

Vic: Chris, they didn't draft defensive ends with their first two picks because they liked the depth they had.  Clearly the intent is to upgrade defensive end.  Reggie is being challenged.  We know about his Achilles injury and that's why he's being challenged.  Before that injury, if he was the guy he was before he got hurt, they'd never of made those picks.  These were need draft picks and the Jaguars jockeyed themselves to into position to fit themselves where the player was. 

You betcha, he's facing a big challenge.  He's a great guy, he's a guy I'll rooting for him every step of the way.  I love the guy.  he's a sensational interview, he's a real reporters dream.

Chris: On Matt Jones. There were some reports that there an element of punishment as to what was happening to Matt Jones and OTA's.  Specifically that the team was going to hold onto Matt for as long as possible and then release him after most teams have set their rosters.

Vic: I have no information along those lines.  I will tell you this, that I watch very closely for these kind of indicators.  I don't try to play scout, I try to play reporter.  I know what a reporter should be looking for.  What I saw during OTA's was Todd Monken, the Wide Receivers Coach, working with Matt Jones individually before and after every practice every day, throwing him ball after ball after ball trying to improve his catching skills.  Working with him in an individual capacity day after day after day.  Why would a coach dedicate all that extra team if a decision has already been made to release him.  Those are things that a reporter looks for.  Forget all that cover 2, cover 3 crap, I'll leave that for the experts, the ex players and their analysis.  I'm not a scout, I'm not an ex player, I'm a reporter.  When I go out to practice, I look for little things that will tell me what the truth is.   The truth is that Todd Monken gave more of his extra time during spring practices to Matt Jones than any other wide receiver on the team.  That's a fact.  That's an opinion of what I believe is a fact.

It's up to Matt, they haven't quit on him, it's up to Matt.  He'll decide based on what he dose during training camp what his position and place with the team will be.

Chris: Do you think placing a guy like Mike Walker on the PUP list is an option for buying the Jaguars a little more time to figure out what to do at receiver?

Vic: I'm not clairvoyant.  I know that he's got an issue with his knee and that he has to prove to Jack Del Rio that his knee can hold up to the daily regimen of training camp.  If they see that he's the same guy day after day after day that will indicate that the knee is ready to take the punishment.  If he's not as good tomorrow or the day after and they see that there is a decline then they have to react accordingly, whatever that means.

In the last week of OTA's, he was better every day.  That's the good thing right now.  He only practiced for the last 8 or nine days of spring practices, but he was better every day and really, really, had an eye-popping practice on the final day.  All the indicators there are good.  They'll be watching closely.

Thank you Vic for taking the time to talk with us! 

A Conversation with Vic Ketchman: Part One

I was fortunate enough to talk to Jaguars.com Editor-in-Chief and leader of the Ask Vic Community Vic Ketchman in a long conversation.   Vic and I discuss everything from the end of the Byron Leftwich era to the expectations for the 2008 Jacksonville Jaguars. Vic, if you're not familiar, can be read every day at Jaguars.com.  This is part one of three of our chat.

Chris: What are your thoughts on the hyper-intense coverage of OTA's and Minicamp?  Do you think it the scrutiny over what are in essence underwear practices become harmful?

Vic: It's a matter of keeping it in perspective.  Achieving perspective makes it all worth while.  Achieving perspective is the important thing.  I don't think that the coverage is nearly as important as the reading of the coverage because there's just not a lot to write.  The spring practice season is, other than if a news event occurs (someone gets hurt, a particular news issue that can be featured such as a change in offensive philosophy, a change in the quarterback position), other than for real news items such as that, it's a benign reporting time.  The onus is on the reader to make sure that he, in my opinion, reads the information for what it's worth instead of trying to read into the information.  You're just not going to get depth chart decisions, you're just not going to get long term impact from what happens in the spring practices.

We saw that a year ago.  All of the 2007 spring OTA's were dedicated to the reestablishment of Byron Leftwich as the teams starting quarterback.  All of the 2007 OTA's were dedicated to Dirk Koetter reclaiming Byron Leftwich's career.  By the end of the preseason, he was gone.  Whatever happened in the OTA's period, as it related to Byron Leftwich was meaningless.  That's the critical thing, keep it in perspective.  The reader has to keep spring in perspective.

Chris: The Byron Leftwich situation: Was that one of the more surprising events you've covered with a team?

Vic: You know, I don't want this to sound self-serving in any way, but the answer is no, and here's why.  We, and when I say  we I mean the sports writers that cover the team, were given several little hints and indications along the way, going all the way back to the end of OTA's in 07.  We were given several little nudges that should have let us know that this wasn't written in stone.

Hint number one was Jack Del Rio's voluntary admission of interest in Daunte Culpepper.  The moment he voluntary expressed his interest in Daunte Culpepper, and the operative word is voluntary, you had to know.  You had to be really thick not to know that this wasn't a done deal.  At that point in OTA's, there was like a week left, it wasn't going well.  When the coach comes out and expresses in a quarterback, another quarterback in the league, that's a very strong indicator that the coach is not satisfied

That was one indication.  Then we came forward into training camp  and at about the one week mark David Garrard started throwing the ball like Sammy Baugh.  Coaches, People started saying little things.  I would have a coach say this to me or say that to me, that's the way it's supposed to be.  Sportswriters are supposed to be on the inside and they're supposed to have relationships with people in the know and in the decision making arena, and they tend to try and help the writers understand that something is happening, in case you missed it.  I didn't miss it because you had to be blind to miss this one.  It was so completely out in front that you had to be absolutely blind not to see.  I don't want to say that, I don't want to offend people who are sight challenged.  You had to turn your head not to see what was happening.  The guy was throwing the ball, as I said,  like Sammy Baugh and when he carried that into the preseason and did it over and over and over, there was no question in my mind that there was an issue involved and nothing was written in stone.

I can say that will all confidence because if you go back and find a tape of the pregame radio show that brian, jeff and I did for the game in Green Bay, what you'll hear me say is that in my opinion, Byron Leftwich was facing a crossroads game, was facing a critical game as far as his future with the team.  I don't think I came out and said it, that his career was on the line, but I was sending every possible hint I could in this pregame radio show that he was under the microscope that night.  When it went as bad as it did for him that night, there was no doubt in my mind what was going to happen.  Guys making his salary, guys in his position don't go to the bench, they get cut. 

What happened there, it shouldn't have been as dramatic as it seemed.  It should have been something that we saw coming.

Chris: I remember being a fan and a writer during the end of the Leftwich era and treating all the obvious signs as something other than the end of Byron.  The Cullpepper announcement was Jack sending a message, nothing more.  I fell into a delusion that Byron was the guy and no matter what I saw, myself and a lot of other people wouldn't process what our eyes saw with our brains.  Hindsight, of course, is 20-20, but for every obvious sign, I'll admit to a big sense of denial. 

Vic: Chris, I was harshly criticized for telling people there was a quarterback competition, for suggesting that Byron's status with the team wasn't written in stone.  I wanted people to know the truth. 

Chris: I can only imagine the deep-seated nastiness you received in the Ask Vic mailbox for implying that Byron was on the outs and David was coming in.

Vic: Oh yeah, the Byron versus David thing was a hot potato, there was a firestorm of opinion, both ways.  Immediately I was perceived as coming over to the David Garrard camp.  I was only in one camp, the camp of the truth.  Of respecting my readers enough to provide them with the truth.  It was more obvious than anything I've ever covered.  It was written on the practice field on training camp, it was written on the faces of the coaches, it was etched on their lips, it was muttered in the hallways.  There was no question that there was an issue at quarterback, and the issue was very clearly David Garrard's blockbuster performance in preseason games and on the practice field versus Byron Leftwiche's less than satisfactory performance.  There's really no other way to put it.  I just wanted people to know what was going on because I was sure of my information.

Chris: Not to jump topics too quickly, but I've got a tongue-in-cheek question from Collin:  He, and all our readers would like to know more about your relationship with Mr. Snoop Dogg.

Vic: Ha ha, You're really not going to ask me that question.

Part Two: Expectations for the Jaguars!  To be Continued!

-Chris

From the department of misleading statements:

Two "news" items caught my attention this morning.  The first comes from Vito Stellino at the Florida Times-Union.  In this article, Stellino explains some of the contract nuances surrounding Running Back Chauncey Washington, explores his roster possibilities, and takes a look at what it will take to sign Derrick Harvey.

ProFootballTalk, a site that trends toward negative stories in general, but especially toward the Jacksonville Jaguars, linked to the Times-Union story, under this headline:

Will the Jaguars have trouble signing first-round draft pick Derrick Harvey?

No.

Because Stellino speculated that Harvey would be the most difficult pick to sign, based on his draft spot in the first round and the rarity of 2nd round or later picks to hold out, PFT implies that the Jaguars will somehow fail at signing their pick.  Stellino, whether he intended it or not, leads his readers to believe that Harvey is likely to hold out based on the top ten pick and being represented by CAA and Tom Condon.:

Harvey is represented by Ken Kremer of CAA football, an agency that includes Tom Condon, who represented former Jaguars quarterback Byron Leftwich when he was a holdout in 2003.

This is misleading.  Condon and Kremer represent several current Jaguars, none of which are mentioned.  Clint Ingram, Vincent Manuwai, Mike Peterson, Tutan Reyes, and Maurice Williams are CAA clients and have been quiet as far as contracts are concerned.  Williams even received a new contract withiout too much headache.

Instead of implying that Harvey would holdout like Byron Leftwich did five years ago, he could have just as well said this:

Harvey is represented by Ken Kremer of CAA football, an agency that includes Tom Condon, who represents Jaguars offensive lineman Maurice Williams who received a contract extension in 2008.

Connecting Harvey's current contract negotiations with those of Byron Leftwich lead the reader to believe that there will be problems in getting the player signed before training camp when there is no reason to believe that could happen.  Signing a franchise quarterback is always more complicated than signing a defensive end, no matter where the player was drafted.  Joe Flacco will have a more complicated contract than Harvey even though Joe was drafted later inthe first round. 

To imply, however thinnly, that because Harvey is with CAA, and CAA held a player out in the past is a poor way to create a story out of nothing.  Even if Harvey did holdout for a week into training camp, it's much different than what happens with a quarterback.  Harvey does not have to get into a comfortable relationship with receivers, linemen, and running backs, he just has to be ready to rush the quarterback.  Paul Vance, who negotiates for the Jaguars, has a good record of getting picks signed and into camp, so there's really no reason to worry.

The only reason I even bring up this bit of media nitpicking is that PFT has an uncanny knack for setting the national tone of coverage.  For better or for worse, people in high places read PFT, and when things are quiet like they are now, suddenly questions could be rasied about Harvey, and I'd like to cut off any worry as quickly as possible.

So shame on you PFT for running with the negitive take on a non-story, and shame on you Vito Stellino for leading your readers to a misleading conclusion.

-Chris

Tim Russert, director of NBC's Political Coverage and legendary political reporter passed away today while working at NBC's Washington News Bureau.  Tim is someone I've watched for as long as I've been politically conscious, and he's someone I've admired for his tenacity and assertiveness in bringing politics up, rather than engaging in the mudslinging and punditry.

For years now I've watched Meet the Press (admittedly the much later re-air rather than the Sunday Morning broadcast), and it won't be the same anymore.

This election, no matter who you support, will not be the same without Tim Russert guiding us through with his whiteboard, his observations, and his honest belief that politics can give us hope, rather than bring us down.  I realize this has nothing to do with the Jaguars or the NFL, but it's important to remember one of the bright spots of journalism.

Here's to you Tim, thank you for everything.

-Chris

Welcome to the Jacksonville Jaguars edition of "Mythbusters".  Today's episode focuses on an issue that will simply never die, relocation.  Rather than repeat the same nonsense, Big Cat Country will attempt to settle these "myths" once and for all.  If you're looking for actual Mythbusters, feel free to look at these fun pictures.

The Myth:

The Jacksonville Jaguars are the most likely team in the NFL to be moved to Las Angeles because they can't sell out their stadium and their market is too small.  This myth started soon after the team was awarded as spurned cities like Baltimore could not understand why Jacksonville received a team before they did.  The myth died down through the late nineties, but as the team struggled through the late Tom Coughlin and early Jack Del Rio eras, it's come back in full force.  Most recently, Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com and Sporting News has churned up another rehashing of the same story with the Jaguars.

This myth is directly connected to the constant drumbeat by the NFL and some LA interests to have a team in the 2nd largest market in the United States.  While there is no stadium, no fan interest, and no public talks of movement, whenever LA and the NFL are mentioned, you can be sure that Jacksonville is the first team mentioned.

Dissecting the Myth:

This myth comes revolves around two basic premises: 1. That LA will receive a team after resolving the stadium issues, or more correctly the lack of stadium issues, and 2. The idea that Jacksonville cannot support the team/ Wayne Weaver can't afford to keep the team in North Florida.

The first element is the most problematic.  There is a push by Ed Roski, a LA Developer, to build a new stadium for the market.  It even has a website and everything.  I will admit that the "building into a hill" idea to cut down on construction costs is very clever, though the funding aspect of this project is still unclear.  They claim to not plan on using any public funds, as there's no way the California budget could ever justify the expenditure.

Just as we did with our Staples Center Project we will privately finance the stadium, office and retail project. The strength of the LA economy enables us to garner a higher price for naming opportunities, suites, club seats and sponsorships, which will enable us to privately finance the stadium and make the team financially secure.

They also claim to be talking to teams about a possible move, but of course, they won't disclose with whom they are meeting.  Their website raises an interesting point:

It is our understanding that the National Football League has no intention of expanding, but they do want to be in Los Angeles. State-of-the-art stadiums are required for teams to stay competitive in today’s NFL. We do not control what team will play in the new Los Angeles Stadium, but we do know it will be an existing team that needs to move because they cannot build a new stadium or financially they are not successful in their current market. We can not disclose which teams we are talking with.

Notice that the first part of their statement is all about the stadium situation of the teams, not the financial market.  This is key because teams don't typically move unless there are issues with their home field, not the market itself.  Look at the recent team moves, and you'll see that they're all stadium related.  Owners want state-of-the-art facilities because they bring in huge revenues.  Club seats, fancy boxes, etc, all bring in extra money that is not subject to sharing or anything else.  It's basically pure profit for the owners.

Jacksonville, as indicated by it's recent hosting of a Super Bowl, is a state-of-the-art facility that has at least a decade of use ahead of it before approaching obsolesce.  Sure, Dallas and New York are going to push the issue on how profitable a facility can be, but Jacksonville Municipal Stadium is in the top ten of NFL facilities and is not an issue.

For Jacksonville to move to LA, they would be the first team to up and leave a perfectly acceptable facility. 

The Market Question:

I addressed this earlier this week in the first "Mythbusters" article.  The accusations that Jacksonville cannot support the Jaguars is based on the idea that the team cannot sell out the stadium.  I'd like to think that we've debunked the stadium argument, as the Jaguars now have a "right sized" with the covered seats.  If having the Jaguars be "off the list" of possible relocated teams means selling out 74,000 seats (1 out of every 10 people in the city, a standard no team could meet), then there could be a problem. 

The Jaguars, despite popular belief, have been a profitble and sucessful enterprise for Wayne Weaver.  He purchased the team for 200 million, and it's worth somewhere between 800 and a billion dollars.  His return is guaranteed.  While some issues such as stadium rights and other sponsorships are still awaiting resolution, were Wayne Weaver to sell the team, they would be a profit generating enterprise in Jacksonville.  Would it be AS profitable as a team in LA, certainly not.  But then again, look at LA's track record of keeping a team.

If there are questions about Jacksonville's ability to support a team, how about answering these issues about LA.  Who is going to drive the hours of LA traffic to go to a game 8 times a season?  The stadium is 22 miles from downtown LA, no short haul on their freeway system.

What guarantee is there that a team in LA will catch on for the long haul, unlike the Rams and Raiders?  What public indication is there that fans will buy season tickets and that it will become a part of the LA landscape?  While there is plenty of developers interest in the scheme, where is the "Touchdown LA" community serving to build interest and fervor into the team?

Wayne Weaver and Selling the Team:

Someday, not far away, Wayne Weaver will sell the team.  The Weavers are very invested in the Jacksonville community and are civic leaders.  When they leave the NFL, there's strong indication that they'd like to leave the team in the hands of locals that will keep the team with the city.  Understand that once the team leaves Jacksonville, it won't be like Baltimore or Cleveland, it's one and done.  The City cannot afford the stigma of not being "good enough" for the NFL.  While the economic benefit of teams is hard to measure, losing one will be nothing but bad for the city.  There is a strong incentive to do whatever it take to keep the team in the city.

That said, were someone to make the right offer, any team could be bought.  If you put 25 billion in front of Jerry Jones, he'd at least consider the offer.  If an ownership group approached Wayne Weaver, I'm sure he'd entertain the offer, but on his own terms.  There's only 32 of these out there, each owner has a great amount of leverage in negotiating the sale.  I've no doubt that when the time comes, part of the deal will be a commitment to the City of Jacksonville.

Our good friend Tim/FBT from Jaguars Journal does a great job explaining the lucrativeness of the Jacksonville Market to a potential suitor:

On Eddie DeBartolo:

Immediately, when people hear the name, they believe that his ties to the state of California would make it an absolute that he would move the team to Los Angeles.  However, DeBartolo lives in Tampa, and has extensive real estate interests in Jacksonville.  Would it really be a stretch for the marketing genius to think that he could be the guy that would be able to ride in on a white horse, bail Wayne Weaver out by buying the team, and then turn it into a franchise that is as profitable and popular as any of the premiere market teams in the league? 

The cost of doing business in Florida is relatively cheap.  The stadium deal that the Jaguars have currently would be appealing to any potential owner.  The tax structure in the state of Florida when compared to what it would cost to do business in Los Angeles cannot be compared.  Jacksonville, for all of the small market stigma, has a lot of appeal for any person considering the purchase of an NFL franchise.

Results:

The continued existence of the Jaguars to LA myth is the result of poor research and an ill-considered insult to the sensibilities of Wayne Weaver.  When Mike Florio says this:

But if Weaver's ultimate decision not to sell is driven by a desire to win a Super Bowl, moving the team into a stadium that likely would generate a lot more revenue would give him even more ammo to turn the Jaguars into a championship team before he cashes out on his investment.

He shows clear ignorance as to what the Jaguars are doing in Jacksonville.  How much more money could the Jaguars have spent this offseason to build a champion?  They could have cut a check to Randy Moss, but decided to spend wisely, like they always do.  You can't confuse being careful with money with being a "lesser owner".  Just because the Jaguars don't operate like Dan Snyder in Washington and Jerry Jones in Dallas doesn't mean that they're lacking in operating funds. 

Jacksonville pops up on these relocation lists because the writers fail to take any appreciable attempt at understanding what is really going on with the stadium.  The covered seats make perfect sense if you take the time to figure it out.  Why should the Jaguars be expected to have one in ten residents in their market come to games when others have vastly lower ratios?  If anything, as I argued in the previous piece, this indicates that Jacksonville supports their team in a far larger amount than other teams.  These pesky facts get in the way of easy arguments that fit into sound bytes better than the truth.

Next Time someone claims that Jacksonville can't support the team, ask them why Indianapolis, a larger market, is building a new stadium that's SMALLER than JMS?  We can pack more fans in against the Raiders than the Colts are building their stadium to handle.  Again, facts beat the perception, if writers would just take the time to look at it.

Inconclusive:

I'd like to come right out and call this busted, but there are still some questions to be answered.  We'll have much more certainty about the future of the Jaguars in a few months.  A Stadium Naming Rights agreement is a good sign, as will be ticket sales as we get into August. 

My gut says this is busted though.

-Chris

Welcome to a very special edition of "Mythbusters".  Today's episode focuses on an NFL team that is surrounded by poorly researched talking points and rehashed arguments that hold little water.  Rather than repeat the same nonsense, Big Cat Country will attempt to settle these "myths" once and for all.  If you're looking for actual Mythbusters, feel free to look at these fun pictures.

Myth  "Jacksonville is a "College Town".

College Town: the two words that are required to be mentioned in the first three sentences of any national coverage of the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The city of Jacksonville, according to this myth, is unable to maintain a relationship with the Jaguars because their focus is on the college game of the University of Florida and Florida State University, with a little bit of University of Georgia and University of Miami tossed in for flavor.  Further explanations of this myth clam that people who are college football fans first and foremost cannot appreciate the Jaguars style of play because they are used to high scoring one-sided games.  Another twist on the myth implies that "college town" fans expect college type seasons of 10-1 or 11-0, rather than the realistic 10-6, 9-7 of a good NFL team.

Evidence to support this myth typically involves stadium attendance at the Florida/Georgia game, proximity to Gainesville and Tallahassee, and the occasional "local blackout" of Jaguars games.

Attacking the Evidence:

The Florida-Georgia game requires up to 80,000 seats in Jacksonville Municipal Stadium through the use of temporary seating.  JMS's "capacity" is 76,787, with the Jaguars covering 10,000 seats for about 67,000 seats for Jaguars games.  Because 80,000 people attend a once a year game from two entire states, the city of Jacksonville is seen as a college town that cannot support an NFL team.  Vic Ketchman of Jaguars.com makes a very good case:

Florida-Georgia drives the perception that Jacksonville is a college football town because seats are added. Hey, if Penn State and Ohio State played at Heinz Field they’d have to add seats. Does that make Pittsburgh a college football town? The same would be true if Florida and Georgia played in the Georgia Dome, or Texas and Oklahoma played in Texas Stadium, or Alabama and Tennessee played in Nashville. Pro football doesn’t have 100,000-seat stadiums. Pro football goes for high demand, not high supply.

Interestingly, citing the Florida-Georgia game is used as evidence of the "college town", but the fact that the ACC Championship game is suffering a critical depleation of sales and is moving from Jacksonville to Tampa or Charlotte gets little mention. Going from 72,749 in 2005, then 62,850 in 2006 and 53,212 in a "college town" (remember, FSU and UM are in the ACC), should indicate that there's more to the situation.

The Stadium:

This of course assumes that filling a stadium with 80,000 fans once is the same thing as filling a stadium with 67,000 fans eight times a year.  I say eight times, because I hardly expect full attendance at preseason games.  Of the "blackouts" last season, all of them had full stadiums on Sunday.  What happens is that the NFL decides to blackout a game based on a deadline a few days before the game.  Ticket sales, on the other hand, go right up and through game day.  The stadium is full, or damn close to it on Sundays.  We're talking about a shortfall of maybe a thousand tickets or less.

Jacksonville has a huge stadium for a market of its size.  With the seats uncovered, it is in the top five largest stadiums in the NFL.  Based on market size, the number determined by the league to represent the Jaguars "turf", has a population of 1,100,491.    The average MSA size is 4,485,695.  New York City, with over 21 million, is the largest MSA.    As a comparison, Indianapolis has a MSA of 1.6 million, and the RCA Dome seats 57,980/Lucas Oil Stadium 63,000.  A market with a half million more potential buyers has a stadium with significantly less seats.  The Jaguars at their absolute worst in ticket sales (2000) would have sold out the RCA dome in most games. 

The number that matters most is the Population per Seat figure.  There are 15.08 potential ticket buyers in the Jacksonville MSA per seat.  That's the highest figure in the league.  The league average is almost 70 per seat.  That means that four times as many fans, by percentage, are going to Jaguars games than the NFL average. 

That indicates the opposite of a "college town", when more people are buying tickets than the NFL average. JaxJagfl.com does a fantastic job breaking down these numbers, if you'd like more information.  For the Jaguars to be "right sized" for a 1 to 70 ratio of seats to population, the stadium would require less than 17,000 seats, something that's absurd.  The Jaguars sell more seats per population than any other team in the NFL, with the occasional exception of Buffalo.

Buffalo, by the way, has a million people in Rochester, and a million or two in Toronto. Jacksonville has an Ocean, Daytona, Gainesville, and I-10 as it's nearest neighbors and they're still selling seats.

Television:

The Florida-Georgia game was the second most watched sporting event in the Jacksonville MSA last year.  Meanwhile, the highest was Colts at Jaguars, and 15 of the top 20 sporting events were NFL games.  Again, I'll defer to Vic Ketchman , who has access to ratings numbers that I do not:

The Jaguars are so dominant in the ratings that their preseason game in Green Bay got substantially higher ratings than three of the five college games in the top 20. The Patriots at Cowboys game also got substantially higher ratings than three of the five college games in the top 20. The Bucs at Jaguars preseason game got a 14.4 to a 14.6 for Florida at Kentucky. When you look at those numbers, it’s impossible to call this a college town.

The Jacksonville Gators:

Yes, there is a very popular football team 90 minutes to the southwest of Jacksonville.  The Florida Gators are the most popular college team in Florida, and Jacksonville is home to many of their fans, alumni, and supporters.  Tim Tebow is from a High School just south of the city (Nease), Fred Taylor is from UF, and the Jaguars last two first round picks are from UF. 

Some speculate that there is an ulterior motive in selecting Reggie Nelson and Derrick Harvey, that they'll attract Gator fans to Jaguars games.  This is silly.  I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt that any benefit of ticket sales is completely secondary to the player being selected by the Jaguars.  No team worth its salt would ever select a player based on ticket sales rather than team needs/best player available.  It's irresponsible to assume the Jaguars would operate otherwise. 

It is certainly an added benefit though.  I see nothing wrong with people following the Gators and the Jaguars, other than my Florida State bias, of course.  I follow college football very closely, and I'm perfectly capable of understanding both.  The nonsense about fans expecting college type seasons out of the Jaguars is the most condescending argument I've ever heard.  What they're really saying is that they think Jacksonville is too dumb/redneck/poor/etc to understand the difference between the college game and the "more sophisticated" NFL game.

Why does the myth stick?

It's simple really, there's just not enough time to explain all these factors.  People react to what they see.  When the Jaguars hosted the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football, it was shortly after the Stadium needed the temporary seating for another event.  So when the National Media comes to town, not only do they see 10,000 covered seats, but an extra 8,000 seats that are only used for the big college games and the Super Bowl.  They use their eyes and write a story under deadline based on perception.  Perception, in this case, does not equal reality.

Frankly, Jacksonville will fight with this perception until every game is sold out in advance and the words 'blackout" are never mentioned.  If we have to debate and explain things like MSA and seat per population we've already accepted the media's premise that Jacksonville isn't an NFL town.  The very act of defending the city adds to the perception that it's too small, and draws more bad attention.  It will only be when the Jaguars can avoid this subject entirely, that this myth will die.

Results:

I think it's conclusive that Jacksonville is NOT a mere "college town", and that the continued existence of this myth is a combination of lazy journalism and poorly constructed arguments.

I'm sure Jamie and Adam would agree that this myth is...

BUSTED

Next time on Mythbusters, a look at the Jacksonville Jaguars and the dreaded "relocation".

-Chris