Jaguars v. Steelers: Wednesday News and Notes, Injury and Stats edtion

Injury Report:

Let's start our preparations for Saturday's Playoff Game with a look at some potential injury situations on both teams.  At least as much as we can ascertain from the limited information that us mere mortals on the internet can acquire.

Our favorite Middle Linebacker, Mike Peterson, is already ruled "out" for this week's game with the Steelers.  Team Doctors have not cleared him to play because he's still in a cast and Del Rio won't let him rejoin the team till he's out of the plaster.

For the Jaguars, this really isn't a big deal.  The only real "news" here is that Peterson has not been placed on the Injured Reserve list, so he'll be available for future games, at least in theory.

Of course, I also speculate that perhaps Peterson has a contract thing that if he's placed on the IR list he might be financially hurt or lose an incentive that he's secured, and maybe the team is rewarding him by not deactivating him for the season, but that's is a complete and total guess.

But the combination of Daryl Smith, Justin Durant and Clint Ingram is doing just fine without Peterson.  They're 4-1 in "real games", with Peterson out, so no need to panic.  And to be honest, it's not like there's much of a running game for Peterson to stuff this week.

Other Injuries of Note

Backup Running Back LaBrandon Toefield missed practice on Tuesday with an ankle injury, as well as backup Cornerback Aaron Glenn.  

The Pittsburgh Steelers had to place Lineman Max Starks on the Injured Reserve with a Knee Injury sustained in their final game against the Baltimore Ravens.  Starks played in all 16 games this season, often at left tackle.   The Steelers continued their bad habit of getting injured late in the season.  They've lost their best running back, defensive tackle, and a full time starter in Starks in the last three weeks.  Un-lucky, that's what they are.

NFL.com explains some of the Steelers Injury woes, and boy is it scary:

Predictions and Miscellany:

Stats!!!

One of my favorite writers out there is Brian Burke of NFL Stats  He's primarily focused on win/loss predictions, and he's got a pretty strong record of 73% accurate.  To our right is his mathematical predictions for "wild card weekend", with Jacksonville having a 55% probability of victory.  Other things, as I'll illustrate below, give similar "odds".  The only thing I'd take from this is that no matter what happens, the outcome on Saturday is by no means a sure thing.  Jacksonville still has to defeat a team twice while on the road, which is never an easy thing.

ESPN, in all their infinite wisdom, decided to "rank" all the playoff coaches.  Here's what they say about Jack Del Rio:

Continuing my ESPN Linking, let's take a look at their "statistical breakdown" of the matchup.  A bunch of this stuff is insider only, so pay no mind to the links.

First off, their "accuscore game forecast", explained here uses some sort of amalgamation of 10,000 game simulations to determine the most likely outcome.  They are accurate about 55% of the time, so keep that in mind .

On Offense, they have this to say:

Their simulation produces an average score of Jacksonville 21, Steelers 19, with the Jaguars winning 54% of the time to the Steelers 45%.  Vegas, on the other hand,  puts the Jaguars as 2 point underdogs or coin flips across the board.  At one point, according to Pro Football Talk the Jags were one point favorites, but with the ten billion Steelers fans laying down money, the line shifted.  

So there you go, a slightly esoteric look at what we've got ahead of us on Saturday.

I'll be back in a bit, I'm still down in Miami, so I'm slightly distracted...

-Chris