Mel Tucker: Because the Browns are known for solid defense

Adam Schefter of NFL.com reports that the Jaguars have made their first interview for the vacancy at Defensive Coordinator.  The team interviewed Cleveland Browns coordinator Mel Tucker:

Peyton Manning: "Vic, Ah, why you a make'a the fun at me?"

In what will only inspire all sorts of intelligent and sophisticated responses from our friends at Stampede Blue, Jaguars.com Senior Editor elected to eviscerate Peyton Manning for his performance against the Chargers on Saturday.  Vic, it seems, likes to raise my blood pressure to unbearably high levels as I await the reaction to his commentary.  Manning, like most great players, inspires passionate responses from his critics and his supporters.  This passion tends to degrade into name calling, straw men arguments, and ad hominem insults.  It also leads to the complete disregarding of legitimate points based on emotion. 

What Vic said, for better or for worse, was spot on, though as I will argue below, somewhat misplaced:

Manning did his job. Defense not only wins championships, it loses them.

Vic: Manning did his job? What is it with you Peyton Manning apologists? He was nearly intercepted four times and three of those should’ve been intercepted and returned for touchdowns. The only play he made in the second half was catching the Chargers off guard and lobbing a touchdown pass to an uncovered receiver. In his last four possessions, with the game on the line and the Colts only needing one more score to clinch the win, Manning managed a total of 20 plays for 38 net yards. Hey, that’s crunch time, baby. A day after he wins the league MVP, he gags with the game on the line and does his usual one-and-done routine. When are you people gonna get off your knees? The guy is 7-8 in career postseason games and six times he’s lost in the first playoff game of that year’s postseason; three times in the last four years. Manning did not do his job. His job is to win. His job is to get it done at crunch time.

2008 Playoff Predictions: In Picture Form

It's playoff time and even though the Jacksonville Jaguars are absent, there's no reason why we can't enjoy January.  Long-time readers of the site will know that when I do my "predictions", 80% of my logic is made up of irrational biases and silly "rules", thereby rendering any potential value of following my picks down to nearly zero.  If anything, it's just a fun way to look at the games and lighen up after a week of firings, end of season press conferences, and other issues.  If you're a fan of a team I pick against and find yourself upset, I respectfully question your reading comprehension.

On to the picks

Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals:

I never, ever, ever like picking a rookie quarterback to win on the road in the playoffs.  That said, the Arizona Cardinals are only in the playoffs because they were just good enough to beat up on their own division.  They don't do well against good teams and the combination of Mike Smith's defense with the running attack of Michael Turner and careful ball management (haha) by Matt Ryan means that the Falcons will be the superior avian. 

Besides, no self respecting Jaguars fan could root against Mike Smith.  He's about the only bright spot coming out of Jacksonville this season.

PREDICTION: Atlanta by 10

Indianapolis Colts vs. San Diego Chargers:

I broke character for a bit this season and advocated for giving the MVP to Peyton Manning.  This would be the first time I've actually gone out of my way to say something positive about Peyton, despite the yearly annoyance and heartbreak at his hand year in and year out.  I even respect what the Colts have done to overcome injury and adversity, considering that they lost about as many linemen as the Jaguars did, it really goes to show how some teams can pull themselves up and out of a hole while other teams (cough cough) stay in the rut. 

But don't think for a second that I'm buying the Colts over the Chargers.  I'll take the punk-ass Phillip Rivers, an aging LT2, and a one legged Antonio Gates over the completely one dimensional Indianapolis Colts.  You run to win in the playoffs, and while the Colts are very good at passing and defense, the Chargers will ball control the Colts to a one and done.  The way to beat a surging Manning is to keep him off the field, the Chargers can do that on offense, therefore the Chargers will win.

PREDICTION: San Diego by 3

Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins:

I've spent the last two weeks in Miami and I've caught Phin-Pheaver.  It's not even Phunny how much I want to see the Dolphins beat up on the Ravens, and there's not even an irrational bias against Baltimore at play.  Then again, the last time I watched the Dolphins in a playoff game, the Jaguars won 62-7 and Dan Marino retired.  Baltimore has all the elements of a Super Bowl contender, shut down defense and careful but confident offense.  But I can't possibly pick two rookie quarterbacks to win on the road, so I'm going with a Dolphins win.

PREDICTION: Dolphins by 2

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings:

Andy Reid breaks every rule of football that I know, especially when it comes to proper clock management and running the ball.  Frankly, I think the Eagles are an organization that needs a major shakeup at the top, simply because I think they're stuck in a system that's past the point of diminishing returns.  Much like the Denver Broncos. 

But then there's the Vikings who will ride Adrian Peterson until his legs fall off.  If I were him, I'd start to get just nicked up enough so that Chester Taylor gets a little closer to 50% of the carries.  Right now Peterson is carrying the ball 78% of the time, putting him dangerously close to the 400 carry season mark, the same one that destroyed Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson.

Oh, the Eagles win this game, only after making many poor decisions on 3rd down and nearly giving the game to the Vikings late in the 4th quarter.

PREDICTION: Eagles by 1

Fans of the Jacksonville Jaguars can Rejoice today, the consensus based decision making of the front office is no more! 

At the year-end Press Conference, Jack Del Rio confirmed that incoming Director of Player Personnel Gene Smith will have the final say in personnel decisions:

“Gene has the con,” Del Rio said. “Gene has the final say in personnel matters and I have the final say in coaching matters.”

As we discussed last week, the previous system of consensus based decision making has done nothing but produce poor outcomes.  Giving Gene Smith "the con", as they say, means that there will be responsiblity and accountablity in player decisions.  I can't express how happy this makes me.  This is a significant break-point from previous Jaguar administrations and a sign that there will be differences in the Smith-Del Rio era that the Harris-Smith-Del Rio lacked.

As soon as I have the full transcript of the Del Rio year-ender, I'll have more in-depth analysis.

-Chris

WARNING: DO NOT JUMP TO CONCLUSIONS

Today we continue with the theme of "things that terrify Chris about the offseason".  This episode is all about the Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons and how their remarkable turnaround should not be applied to the Jacksonville Jaguars of 2009.  Please note: I am not concluding that the Jaguars cannot have a successful season next year, only that operating under the expectations that the team will turn around in one season will lead only to disappointment.  Hence the term "Meta-Jaguars". 

The expectations we set for next season are defined by past experiences.  Conventional wisdom says that it takes more than one season to turn around a sub-par roster, especially an older one.  Unfortunately for the conventional wisdom, three teams emerged this year as an outlier to the multi-year rule of development.  Now, I don't want to downplay the remarkable accomplishments of the Dolphins and Falcons, I'm merely illustrating that the factors that brought them to the playoffs are unpreditcable and therefore unapplicable to the attitude we should have toward the 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Miami Dolphins:

The Miami Dolphins fell into a starting quarterback just as their defense congealed under Tony Sparano, this combined with the loss of Tom Brady and the collapse of Brett Farvre allowed a 1 and 15 team to win their division.  Playing the entirety of the awful AFC West and NFC West also helped.  The Jaguars would have probably won a few more games had they played the Rams, Seahawks, and Raiders.  Of course, I'm cherrypicking a little bit here, but the proof is in the pudding, the Dolphins played a fairly easy schedule.  Don't forget that they played the Patriots after Tom Brady was injured and before they got rolling under Matt Cassell.

Now, with the "luck of the fates" was also some smart moves.  Tony Sparano turned a poor defense into one that could keep up with an occasionaly stuttering offense.  They also drafted the best big guy availble (BABG) in Jake Long, a move that kept Chad Pennington on his feet and the offense alive.  We've seen that adding a top tier rookie left tackle (Joe Thomas and Jake Long) can create instant offense in teams that are otherwise struggling. 

Lessons: The Jaguars do not have a quarterback problem that will be suddenly solved at the last minute.  They may have an underutilized defense that a different defensive coordinator could bring to life, but the age on the defensive line is only fixable through replacement and the draft, which is not a one year fix.  The lesson the Jaguars can take from the Dolphins is that drafting an offensive tackle can solve a lot of offensive woes, especially if surrounded by creative play calling and players that buy into a system.

The Atlanta Falcons:

Atlanta made aggressive moves to replace its GM and Head Coach, adding Tom Dimitroff and Mike Smith.  Smith, formerly of the Jaguars (duh) was considered an unknown prospect, at least to everyone outside Duval county.  What Atlanta got was a Head Coach/GM Combination that proved effective and motivating, espcially when dealing with a Rookie Quarterback in Matt Ryan.  Ryan, of course, was one of two quarterbacks that broke the rule that first year quarterbacks must struggle.  Then again, Smith/Dmitroff backed Ryan up with one of the best free agent signings during the offseason, Michael "The Burner" Turner, who's opened up a running game that protected Ryan through his occasional struggle. 

Lessons: Good drafting and solid free-agent spending combined with the rarest of rookie quarterbacks lead the Falcons to the playoffs.  The Jaguars can learn from this, though again, they're not a quarterback away from winning their division.  They're also not infusing new blood into the franchise at the top, though Gene Smith is movement in the right direction.  If anything, can we have Mike Smith back?

The Moral of the Story:

The expectation for the 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars offseason should be simple: To restock the shelves on the offensive and defensive lines in order to build toward a better season than 2008.  Any selections or draft picks taken with the idea that they will turn the Jaguars into Super Bowl champs in one offseason are poor decisions.  The team needs to rebuild not reload, that takes time.  We cannot go into the free agency and draft period thinking that we're a left tackle away from taking down the Colts and Titans, though we could certainly use a left tackle.  This year we let our expectations get ahead of us, I'm as guilty of it as anyone.  I won't make that mistake this year, the 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars are rebuilding, I accept that, and will cherish every moment of it as one step closer to the ultimate prize.  But I won't allow myself to be deluded by the short-term turn arounds by the Falcons and Dolphins.  Good for them, by all means they deserve a tip of the hat, but expecting the Jaguars to do it just as fast will only lead to disappointment.

-Chris

The Nightmare of the 2009 Offseason BEGINS!

The most dreaded part of the 2009 offseason for the Jacksonville Jaguars will be, without a doubt, the speculation around the NFL career of Mr. Tim Tebow. This will be the most nauseating part of the pre-draft period.  Personally, I think Tim will elect to stay in school and come out in 2010, but that's without any sort of inside information.  I do expect that were Tim to come out in the 2009 draft, he'll be a third round or later pick and will hear from the draft committee that he's better off entering as a fullback or tight end.  If he wants to be a serious quarterback, he'll have to wait another season.

But some writers won't let that stop them from terrible speculation.  Dan Shanoff, someone I respect as a pioneer in sports fandom and blogging, has frankly fallen from the deep end:

So: Who's going to construct the biggest draft reach of the decade and pick Tim Tebow -- and not just pick him in the first round, but pick Tebow in the Top 10? Prediction: Jacksonville.

You think I'm crazy. You read the draft previews that Tebow is a 2nd-round pick, at best. I'm just saying that if he comes out -- still an "if" -- he will rise into the first round.

(And if the Jags don't take him -- they would use the Jacksonville native for marketing as much as they would for grooming him to replace David Garrard in 3 years -- the Pats will. Oh yes.)

Let's play a logic game: ASSUMING

a. The Jacksonville Jaguars need help selling tickets

b. Players from the University of Florida help the Jaguars sell tickets

c. Tim Tebow will sell tickets

THEREFORE

The Jacksonville Jaguars will draft Tim Tebow

Savy fans will instantly reject the premise that the Jaguars need "help" in selling tickets.  Even smarter fans reject the idea that one player will radically change ticket buying in the Jagaurs favor.  While I respect Tim's athletic ability, no team in their right mind would spend the 8th overall pick on a quarterback project to develop for "3 years" behind a quarterback they just invested 60 million dollars into.  Three year projects have a name, they're called "second day picks".  Mike Walker is a project player, sure he might have had 1st round talent, but due to injury, he's a second day selection. 

Tim Tebow is the same sort of situation, he's simply not NFL ready.  Top Ten picks, without exception, must produce in their first two or three seasons, they don't sit on the bench behind a player for three years.  Especially considering the risk in investment in a top ten quarterback pick that has at best a 50-50 shot to work out.  How many people are going to buy tickets in 2009 ONLY to see Tim Tebow sit on the bench or hold a clipboard? 

Will Wayne Weaver sink 40 million dollars to draft Tebow as a three year project with questionalble odds to be a productive quarterback?  Will the Jaguars put over 100 million dollars into one position that puts one player on the field at a time?  It's a rediculous proposition.  Unless Tebow is ready NOW, he's not a first round pick.

Now, I think that Dan Shanoff would respond with an argument about how the Jaguars or whichever NFL team would have to "use Tebow in the right way", WildCat, etc, etc, but that's also a big gamble.  Do the Jaguars shoehorn their offense into a system for Tim Tebow rather than bring Tebow into an NFL offense?  I'm all about doing a little experementiation, but is there any serious consideration of an NFL offense that goes nearly completely shotgun passes and runs, especially one that (tries to) pride itself on power running? 

Tim Tebow has the mindset to do well in the NFL, that's for sure.  He's a positive of a character you can find.  He's also got unreasonably high expectations and thrives in an offensive system that last produced an NFL quarterback named Alex Smith.  I'm not saying he's going to fail, I'm merely arguing that he won't be a first or second round pick and that he won't be drafted by the Jaguars to sell tickets.

Tim Tebow will not block for Garrard, he won't rush the quarterback, he won't intercept a deep pass, and he won't stuff a run.  Therefore he won't be drafted in the first round by the Jaguars, it's as simple as that.  Frankly, they don't have the offensive linemen in place to protect Tebow long enough so he can do his thing.

So please, everyone who's going to project that the Jaguars draft Tebow to sell tickets, please, please, please stop.  If the Jaguars start drafting players in order to sell tickets, we might as well move to LA and get it over with.

-Chris

This is the way the season ends
This is the way the season ends
This is the way the season ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

'The Hollow Men', T.S. Eliot ( h.t. NewJagsCity)

With that performance to tide us over until next Sepetmber, the 2008 Jacksonville Jaguars sulk off the field for the last time.  Never again will we see Reggie Williams drop a critical pass in the end zone or  Gerald Sensabaugh tackling in the secondary.  We saw Khalif Barnes and Company complete the season with David Garrard as the most hit quarterback in the NFL.  Amazingly, the most hit quarterback in the NFL also had the most Wide Receiver Drops in the NFL.  Ask Vic today said it best:

Vic: Can’t block and can’t catch is a bad combination.

The Ravens were playing for the playoffs while the Jaguars were playing for a sense of pride as they headed into the long dark offseason.  Fans discovered which is more motivating as the team laid an egg of a performance.  Other than a suprise 23-yard touchdown by Alvin Pearman and a nice 78 yard rushing performance by Maurice Jones-Drew, there's little to be proud of by their performance in Baltimore. 

Did the Jaguars Quit?:

Mike Peterson says no:

“This summed it up. That’s been the story. The good thing about it, though, the guys in this locker room – I know you all wrote us off early with everything that had happened – but these guys never quit. You can say whatever you want to say about us, but you never saw anybody in this locker room quit. We fought until the end. A lot of those games we lost, we lost at the end of the game – a play here, or a play there. So with that being said, the year didn’t go the way we wanted it to go, but you learn a lot about the guys. I think the coaching staff learned a lot about a lot of guys, and they learned a lot about the coaches, also.”

As does Maurice Jones-Drew:

“It’s been frustrating at times, but this isn’t my first losing season. In college, I was in two [losing seasons] and here, it is my first one. You just learn so much about the guys you play with, and I think the guys fought hard and a lot of people thought we were going to quit. We just kept fighting hard. Sometimes, the ball doesn’t bounce your way. We just have to get better and remember this and look back at it and see what we did here and know we have to fix it.”

What's Next:

The major organizational change for the Jaguars is already behind us with the resignation of James "Shack" Harris. Jack Del Rio, no matter what you hear, is 100% secure.  We will see the departure of Gregg Williams to (financially) greener pastures, as he's a free agent and I believe that his salary subsidy by the Washington Redskins is completed.  I've a sneaking suspicion that there will not be much attention paid to the Jaguars assistant coaches during the offseason for promotions from other teams, a disappointing 5 and 11 record will do that to your career options.  What ever happens, I hope that Joe DeCamillis stays with the team.  Despite the drop in special teams performance (12 men on the field, come on), he's one of the best special teams guys in the NFL.

There are a few people I'd like to see considered for defensive coordinator positions from outside the Jaguars.

In no particular order:

1. Sean McDermott: Former Defensive Back and Linebacker coach and current Secondary Coach for the Philadelphia Eagles.  Scott's overseen some of the best secondaries in the NFL, including his 2004-2006 years as secondary/safties coach where Brian Dawkins and Michael Lewis went to the Pro Bowl.  McDermott's spent nearly 10 years under Jim Johnson in his "attack style" 4-3 defense. 

2. Chuck Cecil: Defensive Backs coach, Tennessee Titans.  Cecil's a hard hitting no-nonsense secondary coach that knows how to utilize players according to their ability, not according to "his scheme".  He also does not accept poor tackling and lazy hitting, which is exactly what the Jaguars defense needs after a year of arm swats and weak wrap-ups.

3. Mike Waufle: Defensive Line Coach, New York Giants. Look at the Giants defensive line over the last several seasons, especially in how they've adjusted to rookies, retirements, and injuries.  Waufle is no waffle on defense.

Final Thoughts:

I'm glad it's over.  Now it's onto the re-tooling of the Jaguars for the future. Big Cat Country will be with it every step of the way.  So stick around!

-Chris

It's the end of the 2008 season as we know it and I feel fine.  I've gone through the seven stages of grief and I've come to the acceptance part of the journey to 2009.  I've said my goodbyes to Mike Peterson, Reggie Williams, and Khalif Barnes while tipping a glass to the imminent departure of Jerry Porter. (5% chance of return, according to the Times-Union).  This is also the probable last game for Gerald Sensabaugh, the only player who's had any fire in his performance over the last several weeks, at least on the defensive side of the ball.

Sensabaugh, to his benifit, will be pursued by many teams in the offseason, virtually guaranteeing that he leaves Jacksonville for (fiscally) greener pastures.  It's our luck that the emerging player on our defense is one who's soon to be a free-agent.  C'est la 2008 season.

As for the game against the Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville can only play a spoiler role. It's sad though that the Jaguars will play the spoiler to the Ravens and not the Patriots, as a Ravens win combined with a Miami win over the Jets knocks them from the playoffs.  Imagine the joy of all the non-Patriots fans at watching the 11--5 Pats staying home, the schadenfreude is priceless.

But I'd never, never, never under any circumstances root against the Jaguars, not even to see the Patriots suffer.  No matter how badly they may deserve it.

So enjoy the game today, enjoy the Jaguars on the field, especially the ones that won't ever wear the teal and black again.  Take a good look at the young players, it'll be a long time till they take the field.  The offseason begins in less than seven hours.  It's going to be a long ride.

Enjoy the games!

-Chris