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NFL Playoff Picture: AFC South - Week 13

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Since I put up the playoffs odds last week (mostly because I knew it'd spark discussion) I figured until the division is locked up, I would put it up each week until it's done so we can see how much games change things week to week. Last week, the Jacksonville Jaguars had just a 16% chance to make the playoffs. This week however, that number skyrocketed up to 50%. That how much a win and a loss can change your playoff outlook. The Colts odds plummeted to just 35%, but a win over the Titans tomorrow night and a win over the Jaguars the following week will also exponentially effect the odds for either team. The most interesting thing to me is the fact that the Texans do not have the worst odds in the division.

AFC South

Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
JAC 7-5 -8.2% 8.8 0.0% 0.9% 6.6% 41.0% 0.1% 1.4% 48.5% 0.9% 1.5% 50.0% 33.2%
IND 6-6 7.9% 8.3 0.0% 0.1% 6.7% 27.4% 0.0% 1.0% 34.2% 0.1% 1.0% 35.1% -11.6%
HOU 5-7 4.7% 7.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.3% 8.7% 0.0% 0.3% 9.1% -0.8%
TEN 5-7 3.1% 6.9 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% -19.7%



Once again, these are from Football Outsiders. Follow the link to determine how they come up with their figures. For quick reference:

WEI = Current Weighted DVOA rankings

The numbers are the playoff seeds.

WC = Wild Card