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Not to Spiller: A Case Against Drafting C.J. Spiller 10th Overall

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In recent weeks, the Jaguars fanbase and the mainstream media have pondered the idea of C.J. Spiller getting drafted by the Jaguars. In Alfie's most recent post, he discussed the pros and cons of drafting Spiller and he largely focused on the financial reasons why the Jaguars would avoid making the selection. Among the cons he listed, Alfie cited the large contract that would go to a backup and the negative dynamic in the locker room that could come as a result.

I am not going to argue that the Jaguars should avoid drafting Spiller due to any financial reasons. I believe that when finances begin to dictate how a team drafts, the team ultimately hurts itself and sacrifices the full value of the draft. I'm also not going to argue that adding Spiller would hurt the locker room, because I believe Maurice Jones-Drew is enough of a professional to embrace the situation no matter what. What I am going to argue is that C.J. Spiller doesn't represent the value of a player deserving of a top 10 draft pick. 

It is simply not worth the 10th pick for a player that wont be a full-time back at the next level. C.J. Spiller presents a dangerous weapon to defenses as a 3rd down back, but his size 

In 2009, 13 RBs carried the football for 16 or more carries a game:

Full Time RBs
Player
Height Weight
Cedric Benson - Cin 5'11 225
Chris Johnson - Ten 5'11 200
Steven Jackson - Stl 6'2 236
Thomas Jones - NYJ 5'10 212
Adrian Peterson - Min 6'1 217
Maurice Jones-Drew - Jax 5'7 208
Ryan Grant - GB 6'1 222
Kevin Smith - Det 6'1 217
DeAngelo Williams - Car 5'9 217
Frank Gore - SF 5'9 217
Ronnie Brown - Mia 6'0 230
Michael Turner - Atl 5'10 244
Matt Forte - Chi 6'2 218

 

C.J. Spiller stands at 5'11, 196 pounds. His height doesn't appear that it would be a problem in the NFL, but he's significantly lighter than the majority of this group. He would be the only one under 200 pounds. The closest comparison is to the 5'11, 200 pound Chris Johnson, the NFL rushing champion of 2009. C.J. Spiller has been heralded as the next Chris Johnson in the NFL with his elite speed. Maybe I'm the only one that doesn't see it.

Chris Johnson ran a 4.24 40 time at his combine while Spiller's combine time was a 4.37. Spiller has top notch speed, but nothing like the superhuman speed of Johnson. There is a clear risk being taken by any team that feels Spiller is a full time back as he does not fit the mold. In all likelihood, Spiller is nothing but a return specialist or a 3rd down back and in that case you have to question whether or not he's worth a high draft pick. C.J. Spiller presents a dynamic weapon to whatever team drafts him, but in my opinion, he doesn't present enough of an impact to warrant spending a top 10 draft pick on him.

- Adam Stites