This originally appeared on HogsHaven.com, thanks to Kevin Ewoldt for the hard work.
Kevin Ewoldt of HogsHaven.com wrote a story a few days ago that I thought was very relevant to the Jacksonville Jaguars situation. Like the Jaguars, the Redskins need to draft a quarterback at some point. There's always a back and forth on which quarterback to draft, which not to draft, and various arguments as to why or why not. Well, Ewoldt points to an article that appeared in Sports Illustrated last year called "The Rule of 26-27-60" by John Lopez.
Here is the gist of it: If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level.
Sounds pretty simple, right?
Ewoldt was kind enough to do a lot of the heavy lifting in his original article, so excuse me while I cut and paste real quick...
QBs that have passed this rule: Sam Bradford, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Stafford.
QBs who did not pass this rule: Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, David Carr, Heath Shuler, Jimmy Clausen, Jay Cutler, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Tim Tebow, Alex Smith (1 game short), Jeff George, and Vince Young (horrible Wonderlic). Yes, these are all huge busts but were all VERY high (or projected) 1st rounders.
Exceptions: Brett Favre (22 Wonderlic), McNabb (14 Wonderlic), Matt Leinart - who at USC played over 30 games, 35 Wonderlic, and threw over 63% all three years. Aaron Rodgers averaged 63.8 completion percentage, 35 Wonderlic, and 26 games (1 game short). Ben Roethlisberger scored a 25 on the Wonderlic (1 point short) but easily had the number of games and high completion %. Josh Freeman met all the rules except completion % at KSU (59.1%) - so close.
Seems pretty straight forward, correct?
For the most part, the rule holds a lot of weight. There of course, are always exceptions to the rule. So, how does the 26-27-60 rule apply to the players coming out in the 2011 NFL Draft? We don't know exactly, as we don't have wonderlic scores yet, but we can look for the 27-60 part of the rule and get started.
Jake Locker, 6'2" - 228 lbs - FAILED 27-60 (Completion < 60%)
| Year | School | Conf | Class | Pos | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | TD | Int | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Washington | Pac-10 | FR | QB | 155 | 328 | 47.3 | 2062 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 14 | 15 | 105.0 |
| 2008 | Washington | Pac-10 | SO | QB | 50 | 93 | 53.8 | 512 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 1 | 0 | 103.6 |
| 2009 | Washington | Pac-10 | JR | QB | 230 | 395 | 58.2 | 2800 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 21 | 11 | 129.7 |
| 2010 | Washington | Pac-10 | SR | QB | 184 | 332 | 55.4 | 2265 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 17 | 9 | 124.2 |
| Career | 619 | 1148 | 53.9 | 7639 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 53 | 35 | 119.0 |
Colin Kaepernick, 6'4" - 225 lbs - FAILED 27-60 (Completion < 60%)
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2007 |
Nevada |
WAC |
FR |
QB |
133 |
247 |
53.8 |
2175 |
8.8 |
9.8 |
19 |
3 |
150.8 |
|
2008 |
Nevada |
WAC |
SO |
QB |
208 |
383 |
54.3 |
2849 |
7.4 |
7.8 |
22 |
7 |
132.1 |
|
2009 |
Nevada |
WAC |
JR |
QB |
166 |
282 |
58.9 |
2052 |
7.3 |
7.7 |
20 |
6 |
139.1 |
|
2010 |
Nevada |
WAC |
SR |
QB |
233 |
359 |
64.9 |
3022 |
8.4 |
8.6 |
21 |
8 |
150.5 |
|
Career |
|
740 |
1271 |
58.2 |
10098 |
7.9 |
8.4 |
82 |
24 |
142.5 |
Ricky Stanzi, 6'4" - 230 lbs - FAILED 27-60 (Completion < 60%)
| Year | Team | G | Cmp | Att | Comp % | Yds | Yd/A | TDs | Int | Sacked | Yds |
| 2007 | Iowa | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2008 | Iowa | 13 | 150 | 254 | 59.1 | 1956 | 7.7 | 14 | 9 | 22 | 138 |
| 2009 | Iowa | 11 | 171 | 304 | 56.3 | 2417 | 8.0 | 17 | 15 | 23 | 175 |
| 2010 | Iowa | 13 | 221 | 345 | 64.1 | 3004 | 8.7 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 135 |
| Career | 39 | 542 | 907 | 59.8 | 7377 | 8.1 | 56 | 31 | 64 | 448 |
Christian Ponder - 6'2.5" - 222lbs - PASSED
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2007 |
Florida State |
ACC |
FR |
QB |
8 |
18 |
44.4 |
105 |
5.8 |
1.9 |
1 |
2 |
89.6 |
|
2008 |
Florida State |
ACC |
SO |
QB |
177 |
318 |
55.7 |
2006 |
6.3 |
5.3 |
14 |
13 |
115.0 |
|
2009 |
Florida State |
ACC |
JR |
QB |
227 |
330 |
68.8 |
2717 |
8.2 |
8.1 |
14 |
7 |
147.7 |
|
2010 |
Florida State |
ACC |
SR |
QB |
184 |
299 |
61.5 |
2044 |
6.8 |
7.0 |
20 |
8 |
135.7 |
|
Career |
|
596 |
965 |
61.8 |
6872 |
7.1 |
6.7 |
49 |
30 |
132.1 |
Cam Newton - 6'6" - 250 lbs. - FAILED 27-60 (Games Played < 27)
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2007 |
Florida |
SEC |
FR |
QB |
5 |
10 |
50.0 |
40 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
0 |
0 |
83.6 |
|
2008 |
Florida |
SEC |
SO |
QB |
1 |
2 |
50.0 |
14 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
0 |
0 |
108.8 |
|
2010 |
Auburn |
SEC |
JR |
QB |
185 |
280 |
66.1 |
2854 |
10.2 |
11.2 |
30 |
7 |
182.0 |
|
Career |
Overall |
191 |
292 |
65.4 |
2908 |
10.0 |
10.9 |
30 |
7 |
178.2 |
|||
|
Florida |
6 |
12 |
50.0 |
54 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
0 |
0 |
87.8 |
||||
|
Auburn |
185 |
280 |
66.1 |
2854 |
10.2 |
11.2 |
30 |
7 |
182.0 |
Greg McElroy (ALA) - 6'2 - 222lbs - PASSED 27-60
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2007 |
Alabama |
SEC |
FR |
QB |
8 |
9 |
88.9 |
73 |
8.1 |
10.3 |
1 |
0 |
193.7 |
|
2008 |
Alabama |
SEC |
SO |
QB |
8 |
11 |
72.7 |
123 |
11.2 |
8.9 |
1 |
1 |
178.5 |
|
2009 |
Alabama |
SEC |
JR |
QB |
198 |
325 |
60.9 |
2508 |
7.7 |
8.2 |
17 |
4 |
140.5 |
|
2010 |
Alabama |
SEC |
SR |
QB |
222 |
313 |
70.9 |
2987 |
9.5 |
10.1 |
20 |
5 |
169.0 |
|
Career |
|
436 |
658 |
66.3 |
5691 |
8.6 |
9.2 |
39 |
10 |
155.4 |
Andy Dalton (TCU) - 6'2" - 213 lbs - PASSED 27-60
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2007 |
TCU |
MWC |
FR |
QB |
222 |
371 |
59.8 |
2459 |
6.6 |
5.8 |
10 |
11 |
118.5 |
|
2008 |
TCU |
MWC |
SO |
QB |
182 |
307 |
59.3 |
2242 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
11 |
5 |
129.2 |
|
2009 |
TCU |
MWC |
JR |
QB |
199 |
323 |
61.6 |
2756 |
8.5 |
8.8 |
23 |
8 |
151.8 |
|
2010 |
TCU |
MWC |
SR |
QB |
209 |
316 |
66.1 |
2857 |
9.0 |
9.9 |
27 |
6 |
166.5 |
|
Career |
|
812 |
1317 |
61.7 |
10314 |
7.8 |
7.9 |
71 |
30 |
140.7 |
Ryan Mallett - 6'6" - 238 lbs. (37 games) - FAILED 27-60 (Completion < 60%)
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2007 |
Michigan |
Big Ten |
FR |
QB |
61 |
141 |
43.3 |
892 |
6.3 |
5.7 |
7 |
5 |
105.7 |
|
2009 |
Arkansas |
SEC |
SO |
QB |
225 |
403 |
55.8 |
3624 |
9.0 |
9.7 |
30 |
7 |
152.5 |
|
2010 |
Arkansas |
SEC |
JR |
QB |
266 |
411 |
64.7 |
3869 |
9.4 |
9.7 |
32 |
12 |
163.6 |
|
Career |
Overall |
552 |
955 |
57.8 |
8385 |
8.8 |
9.1 |
69 |
24 |
150.4 |
|||
|
Michigan |
61 |
141 |
43.3 |
892 |
6.3 |
5.7 |
7 |
5 |
105.7 |
||||
|
Arkansas |
491 |
814 |
60.3 |
7493 |
9.2 |
9.7 |
62 |
19 |
158.1 |
Blaine Gabbert - 6'5" - 235 lbs (29 games) - PASSED 27-60
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2008 |
Missouri |
Big 12 |
FR |
QB |
5 |
13 |
38.5 |
43 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
0 |
0 |
66.2 |
|
2009 |
Missouri |
Big 12 |
SO |
QB |
262 |
445 |
58.9 |
3593 |
8.1 |
8.2 |
24 |
9 |
140.5 |
|
2010 |
Missouri |
Big 12 |
JR |
QB |
301 |
475 |
63.4 |
3186 |
6.7 |
6.5 |
16 |
9 |
127.0 |
|
Career |
|
568 |
933 |
60.9 |
6822 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
40 |
18 |
132.6 |
As a commentor pointed out, apparently John Lopez lifted this idea from Gil Brandt who lifted the idea from Football Outsiders?