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My Random Draft Thoughts and Misunderstandings

I usually ramble in the mornings on twitter while the thoughts are fresh in my brain, so I thought I'd throw my ramblings down here as well. I mean, there's nothing else going on because of the lockout, right? As most of you can gather, I like to ellicit response so I ask questions and poke holes. Well, in the midst of draft discussions and talking to tons of Jaguars fans, I just have some random thoughts and misunderstands on some thoughts.

Follow my train of thought after the jump.

We all know I maintain that if you want to get a franchise quarterback, your best bet is in the first round of the draft. While the hit rate is still just 50/50, when you get to the second round over the past two decades it's 10/90 for hit/miss and continues the decline thereafter. I get the thought process behind grabbing your guy in round 2 if he's available, but I do have a question: If the quarterback you're targeting as a franchise QB can be had in round 2, how good is he really?

Know what I mean? You'd have to literally be "smartest kid in the room" to pull that one off.

Another thought process I can't seem to grasp is when some people say the Jaguars need to get a defensive end, because they need to win now. Well first of all, isn't that technically "needs" drafting?

On that same point, if you make the argument the Jaguars have to "win now" so they should draft a defensive end... do you then believe said rookie defensive end is going to come in and put them over the top to land a winning record or make the playoffs and push for the division? How often does that happen? Did Eugene Monroe and Tyson Alualu come in right away and be difference makers?

No, not really. While I think both will be good players, neither really made a huge impact their rookie year.. as expected. The only defensive ends I can think of off the top of my head who were picked in the middle of the first round who were instant impact makers were Brian Orakpo and Clay Matthews, but they're both 3-4 outside linebackers (Thanks to @loganselbert for pointing this out on twitter when I asked for guys).

Another thought I keep hitting with people is on someone like Andy Dalton. I personally am not very high on him, but that's me. He reminds me too much of Jeff Garcia and/or Colt McCoy, but I could be wrong. However, you see a lot of people think that he can be "the guy" and he should be the Jaguars pick at 49. Well, if you think he's "the guy", why don't you take him at 16?

He doesn't meet the value? How valuable is "the guy" at quarterback to you? Is a defensive end at 16 more valuable than the guy at QB?