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History Says You Should Expect The Jaguars To Draft A Defensive Lineman

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If you're into true NFL Draft statgeekery like I am, Tony Villiotti of Draftmetrics.com has a very interesting library of draft studies with all the number crunching and charts to overload your brain with draft information. Among his articles in one called "Draft Tendencies" in which he breaks down the tendencies for each team over the last 20 years.

When looking at the full 20-year study period, NFL teams can be grouped into seven categories based on their basic draft tendencies:

Not only do the Jaguars have a defensive slant, as Villiotti notes in his article, he also says they historically "stay away from skill positions early, take them late" and "like offensive and defensive linemen early."

In the 2009 NFL Draft, Gene Smith's first as general manager, the Jaguars had a strong need at the wide receiver position and tried to address it with 4th, 5th and 7th round picks by selecting Mike Thomas, Jarett Dillard and Tiquan Underwood, respectively. It hasn't worked.

Now three years later it's expected that Smith will take another few shots at fixing the receiver position while also trying to address the defensive line. Between the two needs though, history would have us believe that the first round pick of the Jaguars is more likely to be spent on the defensive line.