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The Jacksonville Jaguars have just two quarterbacks on their roster in Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert, but the front office has constantly noted that they want to "add competition" to the position be it through free agency or the NFL Draft. As free agency has progressed a long, it's becoming more and more obvious the Jaguars will be drafting a quarterback, but the questions now becomes when?
Will they pull the trigger on Geno Smith with the second overall pick or will they wait until later in the draft?
Doing the latter is where it becomes tricky and if you wait too long the chances of adding a real competition gets exponentially less.
The best chance at landing a possible franchise quarterback, and thus legitimate competition to win the starting job in 2013 is taking a quarterback in the first round. Historically, that is where you're going to find your quarterbacks. That doesn't mean if the Jaguars decide to pass on a quarterback at two they won't get legitimate competition, but they can't wait too long.
The last shot the Jaguars will likely have to add legitimate competition to the quarterback spot is with the 33rd overall pick in the second round. History has shown you can find starting quarterbacks beyond the first round, albeit rare, but it usually is going to happen within the Top 40 picks. This isn't necessarily a rule, it's just what history has shown us since about the year 2001.
This will likely hold true this year, because there are so many teams in need of quarterbacks. It's likely there will be a run on them in the early second round, because all those teams picking in the Top 10 who are in need of quarterback don't appear to be willing to pull the trigger, but likely will in the second round.
Waiting beyond the 33rd overall pick becomes a massive gamble, as it's near impossible to project who could be available at pick 66 and beyond. You can get a gauge of who will be there at pick 33, even now, but as soon as a quarterback comes off the board in the second round it's very likely to create a big chain reaction of teams pushing to grab "their guy" before it's too late.
Sure, you can get lucky and hit on the next Russell Wilson, but I'm not sure people understand just how rare that is. Wilson was an outlier to the whole situation. If he had been around 6'2, he likely would have been a first round pick. He didn't fit the height mold that the NFL looks for, so he was pushed down the board despite excelling everywhere else. The guys who can actually overcome that are few and far between and trying to hit on that guy is much riskier than taking a swing in the first round.
If the team wants real competition between Gabbert, Henne, and someone else and not just a dog and pony show, they won't be able to sit around on a quarterback.
They'll likely have to take one in the first 33 picks.