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Alabama has had one of the more successful CFB runs in recent memory the past few years, and one of their prime figures behind their success is QB AJ McCarron, at least in the publics eye. McCarron has played mistake free and has been efficient in executing ‘Bama's game plan week to week and will enter the 2014 draft with one of the best college resumes in some time, but how much does all of this really translate? I watched 5 of his 2012 games (Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Western Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee) and here is what I came away with.
Measurables
Height: 6'4"- Ideal height.
Weight: 214 lbs- Frame looks a bit thin, could definitely add to it.
Athleticism/Mobility
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Average-Below average in terms of athleticism.
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When throwing on the run can resort to running, but only if it is a wide open lane. Not a running threat, but smartly knows how to pick up small yardage.
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Not mobile enough to evade defenders in pocket if he does not sense pressure fast enough.
Pocket Presence
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Does a good job of dipping his shoulder to move up in the pocket and moving laterally to avoid pressure.
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Inconsistent in predicting pressure, can sometimes bail out of pocket too soon.
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Does not sense backside pressure very well.
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Does not try to be too risky amid pressure, smartly throws ball away when pushed out of pocket and he can't hit his read.
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Looks awkward when scrambling out of pocket, like he does not know exactly where to go. Led to a few sacks on his part.
Mechanics
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Clean footwork in pocket, amid pressure.
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Good throwing motion with a high release, though he could stand to speed it up a bit.
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Throws off his back foot amid interior pressure. Velocity/placement take a big hit.
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Accuracy is below average when he is forced to move in pocket, causing him to be erratic with checkdowns.
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Is at his best when rolling to his right on Play Action, is able to add more velocity to the ball.
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Does not change throwing angles in tight spaces.
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Does not reset himself to throw very consistently when on the run.
Arm Strength
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Capable of some downfield throws, but too many rainbows and not enough lazers. Forces WR to stop in his stride and comeback for the ball often, severely limiting YAC.
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Velocity dies after 15 yards, does not fit ball into tight windows very often.
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A lot of out routes in the 15-20 yd range were jumped by DB's.
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Velocity from LOS-15 is good enough.
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Velocity really suffers in the 20 yd range over the middle of the field.
Accuracy
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His touch is a very big +. Able to "drop it in the bucket". Knows where to put the ball. Good example of his downfield touch here.
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Placement is a bit inconsistent in all areas of the field, even with checkdowns. Relies on timing, and his placement takes a big hit if timing is a bit off.
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Hits most slant/timing routes in the 10> range in stride, helps YAC ability.
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Very accurate when rolling to his right, able to fit the ball between the sideline and the defender where only his teammate can catch it. A good comeback route thrown with improved velocity while rolling to his right.
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Not so accurate when rolling to his left and throwing across his body. His lack of ability to properly reset himself to throw is most likely the biggest reason for this. An example of McCarron failing to reset himself on the run forcing a poorly thrown ball and interception.
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Hits post routes with good placement, though when his velocity dies he throws too much behind.
Mental Makeup
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Knows his role in the offense, and performs it to the coaches orders while not trying to do much more.
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A timing passer, luckily his timing is normally good.
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Is seemingly a fiery player on the field.
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Anticipation is a - in my eyes. Does not throw WR's open, instead waits for them to already gain separation before releasing it. This is a prime example of some of my negatives on AJ. A key play in Teas A&M Game. Does not anticipate his receivers separation very well and his rainbow makes his WR stop in his stride to turn and catch the ball, negating a potential TD.
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Does a good job of finding his 2nd read, normally a checkdown, while on the move outside of the pocket.
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Offense is a bit simplified, relies on a lot quick hitting timing 1st reads (Short slants, outs) and the 2nd read is normally a check down. This is designed to limit turnovers, but on the flip side makes AJ and the passing game more predictable to defenses.
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Does not like attacking defenses and taking risks. Does not throw many (if any) vertical passes vs zone coverages or contested man coverage. Has no problem attacking vertically if WR already has CB beat in man to man, which Amrai Cooper did A LOT, but needs to be willing to attack D's more to be less predictable. As you can see here, AJ has no issues throwing the ball downfield in man to coverage that is vulnerable.
Overall I am not a big fan of McCarrons 2012 tape, and I think he looked the part of a "Game Manager" who is asked to attempt to keep D's honest from the running game and to make sure the ball was not turned over.
I realize McCarron is impressive in the stats and wins category, but I can not stress this enough when I say these are completely irrelevant when projecting his skills to the NFL. What he lacks in velocity and attacking mentality he does make up in touch and smarts, but how much that is valued is the question. I could see him having success in a scheme like the Houston Texans, a run 1st Offense that utilizes a lot of Play Action due to his high success rate rolling to his right on Play Actions. But as with all prospects, I have no final opinion on AJ yet as he has his entire SR season to play out, and this can not be reiterated enough. He can raise his stock in my eyes by proving to be capable of carrying an offense and not vice versa, plus showing more willingness to attack D's.
(Big thanks to @DraftBreakdown for making this post possible and for all the other prospect videos the post daily)