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Each year Football Outsiders puts out their season almanac, which goes through and previews NFL teams for the upcoming season based off some metrics, including the previous and past season's Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) among other formulas and statistics.
Each year prior to the start of the season, we try to partner up with Football Outsiders and discuss the Jacksonville Jaguars outlook based on their metrics and projections. I asked Brian McIntyre, who wrote the Jaguars portion of the 2013 Football Outsiders NFL Almanac, some specific questions pertaining to the 2013 season.
Where does Blaine Gabbert's performances rank all time? Is he salvageable?
In his rookie season, Gabbert posted the second-worst passing DYAR season since 1991 with -1,009, a mark that only David Carr of the 2002 expansion Houston Texans has bested. Gabbert wasn't as bad in 2012 (-269 passing DYAR) and it can be said that he is, in fact, salvageable. One of the worst passing DYAR seasons belongs to former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, who had a -866 passing DYAR as a rookie in 2005. In 2011, his first season with Jim Harbaugh, Smith was in the Top 15 in passing DYAR. Smith had quite the rollercoaster ride just to get to 2011 with the 49ers, and the Jaguars aren't likely to be as patient with Gabbert as the 49ers were with Smith (the change in the rookie compensation has a lot to do with that), but it is entirely possible for Gabbert to one day be a serviceable starting quarterback in the NFL.