It's okay to expect more than 1-3 out of the Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-3 through the first quarter of the season. That's about where we expected them over the summer, right?

So then why am I frustrated when the Jaguars are 1-3?

It's because my expectations have changed throughout the course of the season. Maybe yours have too. That's okay. That's what happens when you were wrong, or something out of your control changes, or you didn't have all the information. Expectations don't have to remain static, and oftentimes they shouldn't.

For example, let's say you take a job that a friend told you pays $50,000. When you start working, you find out the job actually pays $100,000. But then you get your first paycheck, and it's rating at the lower $50,000 salary. Would you sit there and say to yourself, "Well, I expected this job to pay $50,000 and I'm happy with what I got." Of course you wouldn't. You'd expect the higher $100,000 salary. Your expectations have changed because you were wrong and you learned new information.

Earlier this year, I wrote a meaningless win-loss predictions article. I said we'd lose to the Carolina Panthers, win against the Miami Dolphins, lose to the New England Patriots, and lose to the Indianapolis Colts. I expected 1-3 too, but after watching all four games and seeing all four opponents, my expectations have changed.

I thought we'd see a better Panthers team in Week 1. I was wrong. What we got was a mediocre team and that changed my expectations from a loss to a winnable game.

I thought the Dolphins would be a mediocre team. I was right. We won.

I thought the Patriots would dominate us. I was right. They did.

I thought the Colts would have Andrew Luck, arguably the best player in the AFC South and certainly the best player on their team. I also overestimated the Colts roster. I was wrong on both counts. Luck injured his shoulder leading up to the game and the Colts roster is worse than I predicted. When the Colts roster showed themselves to be bad and when Matt Hasselbeck was named the starter, my expectations went from a loss to a winnable game.

This week, we play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I predicted a win because I expect rookie quarterbacks like Jameis Winston to struggle, especially early in the season. But now that I've seen him play four games, I know that he's better than that. He's inconsistent, but he can beat the Jaguars. He can beat a lot of teams. He's a better quarterback than I thought. I was wrong. Now I don't expect a win. I don't expect a loss either. I expect a close game.

See? New information can change your expectations. In fact, new information should change your expectations.

If you thought the Jaguars would be 1-3 after four games, you're not alone. You were in the majority leading up to the season.

But if you see how everything's unfolded this year and you're happy with 1-3 because that's what you expected in April... well, you aren't in the majority any more.