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Jaguars projected to make playoffs by 2022

You can't argue with math -- the team is on the right track.

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

I'm human. More importantly, I'm a Jaguars fan. I like to underline the bright spots hidden in these reoccurring Jaguars losses just as much as the next guy.

But, in my opinion, this whole "we're not losing by as much as last year though!" mentality needs to be splashed with some water.

Yes, I guess the Jaguars are improving. And you know what, the sunshiners have a point -- the Jaguars aren't losing games as bad as they were last year. I actually did the math, and things are looking up!

In 2014, the Jaguars did more losing than winning. Even when factoring in the Jaguars' 3 wins, the opposing team outscored the Jaguars by an average of 10.1875 points each week.

That's a -10.1875 point differential per game for 2014.

This season -- still factoring in the Jaguars' two wins so far -- the Jaguars have lost by an average of 7.875 points per week.

That's a -7.875 point differential per game for 2015.

So they are on the right track! From 2014 to 2015, the Jaguars have improved their point differential with a jump of +2.3125 points per game.

Now let's play with this projection, since some people really believe these "better losses" are getting the Jaguars closer to their ultimate goal -- the playoffs.

Jaguars Projected Point Diff. by Season
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-5.5625 -3.2500 -.93750 +1.3750 +3.6875 +6.0000 +8.3125

Okay, cool.

Now, here's a little perspective.

The 2014 Baltimore Ravens -- the most recent 6th seed AFC playoff team -- had an average differential of +6.6875 points per game last season. Baltimore barely made the playoffs.

Judging by these numbers and the projections on the chart, that would put the Jaguars in a position to battle for the playoffs somewhere around 2022.

Guys, I might not represent the majority, but I'm not sure if I'm okay with waiting seven more years for a consistently competitive team.

Of course, the Jaguars could break this projection and take a step or two in the coming seasons. But for that to happen, it's very clear that something is going to have to change.


In the meantime, applauding "better losses" might make us feel better, but it certainly doesn't carry much significance.

"Let me quote Einstein here, on the definition of insanity - 'Doing the same thing over, and expecting different results.'"

- Jaguars Owner Shad Khan