FanPost

6 wins is the magic number for Gus Bradley to keep his job


After realizing that the Jaguars are mired in a state of futility, with 4 consecutive seasons with less than 6 wins (14 total wins), and a discussion of whether or not Gus Bradley should get FIVE seasons to right this ship, I decided to look through franchise encyclopedias and see if there is any precedent for keeping a coach for this long despite their excessive losses.

Since 1980 (I chose 1980 as a cutoff since the schedule went to 16 games in 1978 and I like round numbers), there have only been 8 teams that have experienced 4 or more straight sub-6-win seasons (including the current Jaguars team). I also chose teams that were sub-6-win and not at-6-win for an even more discriminate display of awfulness (there are a lot of teams that had more than 4 sub-7-win seasons).

Arizona 1989-1992 (4 straight seasons)
1989 coached by Gene Stallings, who was fired at 5-6 after three sub-.500 seasons (team finished 5-11).
1990-1992 coached by Joe Bugel, who went 5-11, 4-12, 4-12. He stayed on in 1993 but was fired after going 7-9

Atlanta 1987-1990 (4 straight seasons)
1987-1989 coached by Marion Campbell, went 3-12, 5-11, fired at 3-9
1990 Jerry Glanville went 5-11

Cincinnati 1991-1994 Wyche/Shula (4 straight seasons)
1991 coached by Sam Wyche, went 3-13
1992-1994 coached by David Shula, went 5-11, 3-13, 3-13 (went 7-9 in 1995 but then was fired in 1996 after starting 1-6)

Cleveland 2008-2013 (6 straight seasons)
2008 coached by Romeo Crennel, fired after going 4-12
2009-2010 coached by Eric Mangini, went 5-11, 5-11
2011-2012 coached by Pat Shurmur, went 4-12, 5-11
2013 coached by Rob Chudzinski, went 4-12

Oakland 2003-2009 (7 straight seasons)
2003 coached by Bill Callahan, went 4-12
2004-2005 coached by Norv Turner, went 5-11, 4-12
2006 coached by Art Shell, went 2-14
2007 coached by Lane Kiffin, went 4-12
2008 coached by Lane Kiffin (1-3) and Tom Cable (4-8)
2009 coached by Tom Cable, who went 5-11 (he went 8-8 the next year then was fired)

Tampa Bay 1985-1989 (5 straight seasons)
1985-1986 coached by Leeman Bennett, went 2-14, 2-14
1987-1989 coached by Ray Perkins, went 4-11, 5-11, 5-11 (fired in 1990 after starting off 5-8, team finished 6-10)

Tennessee (Houston Oilers) 1982-1986 (5 straight seasons, 4 if you don't count the strike-shortened 1982)
1982 coached by Ed Biles, went 1-8 (strike year)
1983 coached by Ed Biles (0-6) and Chuck Studley (2-8)
1984 coached by Hugh Campbell, went 3-13
1985 coached by Hugh Campbell (5-9) and Jerry Glanville (0-2)
1986 coached by Jerry Glanville, went 5-11 (then went on to win 9, 10 and 9 before moving on to Atlanta)

The only comparable-to-Bradley scenarios would be Arizona's Joe Bugel, Cincinnati's David Shula and Tampa Bay's Ray Perkins, as far as not firing a coach who had three consecutive sub-6-win seasons. Bugel only head-coached once more, a 4-12 season for Oakland in 1997 (57 years old). Shula never head-coached again after being fired from Cincinnati at the age of 37. Ray Perkins never head-coached again after TB (age 49).

This paints a grim picture for the future of Gus Bradley. If he does not win 6 games this year, to expect him to get to .500 in year four is literally unprecedented. And to give him a fifth year on top of that would only have a precedent in David Shula, who ended up tanking in his 5th season. So what is the solution to this problem?

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