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Let me preface this by saying I might have hanxed the math here, but sadly it looks like the Jacksonville Jaguars still aren’t eliminated from the 2016 NFL playoffs.
For all reasonable people, the Jaguars aren’t going to make the playoffs. Hell, even some insane people will ascent to this idea. But the team is technically still in it and here are the asteroids that need to hit Earth for that to happen.
Scenario #1
Thanks to www.becausejaguars.com for this. Here’s the week-by-week scenarios.
Week 13
Jaguars beat the Broncos, Texans lose to the Packers, and Colts lose to the Jets.
Week 14
Jaguars beat the Vikings, Texans lose to Colts, and Titans lose to the Broncos.
Week 15
Jaguars beat the Texans, Titans lose to the Chiefs, Colts lose to the Vikings.
Week 16
Jaguars beat the Titans, Texans lose to the Bengals, Colts lose to the Raiders.
Week 17
Jaguars beat the Colts and Titans beat the Texans.
That leaves the Jaguars and Titans tied at 7-9 for the AFC South lead with the Jaguars finishing with a 4-2 division record and the Titans finishing with a 2-4 division record.
Scenario #2
Step 1: Win out
Win out and you go 7-9.
I’m so, so sorry for this.
Step 2: AFC South bottoms out
The Indianapolis Colts need to lose every game except Week 14 against the Houston Texans.
The Houston Texans need to lose every game except Week 17 against the Tennessee Titans.
The Tennessee Titans need to lose every game they have left.
That puts the Jaguars, Colts, and Texans in a three-way tie for 7-9 and the Titans at 6-10.
I’m disgusted.
Step 3: Win the tie-breakers
The first tie-breaker is head-to-head. The Jaguars and Texans split their games while the Colts went 0-2 against the Jaguars and 1-1 against the Texans. Colts are out.
The second tie-breaker is division record. The Jaguars and Texans are both 4-2.
The third tie-breaker is common games. The Jaguars and Texans played 12 common opponents, going 5-7 in these games.
The fourth tie-breaker is AFC record. The Jaguars would be 5-7. The Texans would be 4-8.
Forgive me, God.