The Jacksonville Jaguars have opened as five-point underdogs to the Denver Broncos in their first home game in three weeks.
Denver installed as five-point road favorite Sunday at #Jaguars— Ryan O'Halloran (@ryanohalloran) November 28, 2016
At first glance, this looks outrageous. But the Jaguars have been pretty good at covering the spread or being within a point of it. In fact, this has actually been bet down to where the Jaguars are only four-point underdogs in some places. And the over/under is 42.0. Which means that Vegas thinks the Broncos win this game 23-19.
In essence, you're betting on the Jaguars being able to score 20 or more points, because I think Denver gets to 23. Or you're betting on the defense completely imploding again and letting an angry Denver team run away with this.
Those are good odds.
Vegas knows what it's doing. Take the Jaguars with as many points as you can and bet the mortgage on the over. If you can find somewhere still giving the Jaguars five points, do it. Anything less and leave it alone.