The Jacksonville Jaguars have just a 24.1 percent chance to beat the Indianapolis Colts, according to numberFire’s metrics and algorithms. And I don’t think I’m being a homer when I say this — but that number seems absurdly low, even for the Jaguars’ standards.
First, Doug Marrone gives the Jaguars an immensely better chance to win. If Gus Bradley were still coaching this team, I could see us being 3/1 underdogs, but with Marrone? Nah.
Second, the Colts and Jaguars are both eliminated from the playoffs. What are they playing for? While the Colts are playing out the string and waiting for the offseason, Doug Marrone is coaching for a job next year and I believe the players want him to stay, giving them more motivation to play well.
Yes, it’s on the road, but I think the Jaguars are now better-coached, have the better roster, and more motivation to win. The numbers should be closer.