1. A lot can change, but...
A popular trend with mock drafts that has been met with a ton of skepticism recently is Joey Bosa dropping out of the first four selections which would give the Jaguars a shot at drafting the player that many touted as one of the top two layers in the class. Yet, the idea that the NFL might not view Bosa as a slam dunk pick is one that can be argued moderately well... he does not really fit any "mold" of player. Not a true edge rusher but not quite big enough to play anywhere else. It is also hard to see Tennessee picking anyone but Tunsil or Cleveland not taking a quarterback.
San Diego and Dallas could opt for Bosa, but they might prefer options like Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, and more.
My overall point is that the draft is over 70 days away and a lot can and will change, but we should not rule out the possibility that Bosa might legitimately be available for the Jaguars. People thought it was crazy that Leonard Williams fell last year and his situation feels very similar to Bosa's.
2. Time to open up to the idea of Noah Spence
I have floated out the idea of drafting Noah Spence at No. 5 on Twitter for the past few weeks and have predictably been met with resistance each time. And it makes sense. Drafting a guy at No. 5 who had that kind of history is not something that you should typically advise doing. But in Spence's situation, some things are different. For one, by all accounts, Spence has gotten past his issues. Nobody outside of Spence, his family, or others close to him really know if this is true or not, but it is a fact that he has gone without incident since being dismissed from Ohio State.
Outside of Spence's own issues, we should be looking at how the Jaguars brass and their job security plays into the pick. They need to hit an absolute home run with this pick or it is very likely that they will be searching for new jobs next season. If it comes down to picking a much less talented player than Spence because he is more "safe" then well, they deserve whatever consequences follow.
3. Deon Bush should be a name to watch
A common trend with Miami Hurricanes from the Al Golden era is that once they make the jump to the NFL they become better players. A lot better. And it isn't something as simple as developing as players. In a lot of cases, it is obvious that they were just poorly coached at Miami. From Travis Benjamin to Allen Hurns to Denzel Perryman, it is a trend that is very real.
Deon Bush is a good candidate for this year's Hurricane who is just waiting to have his talents unlocked. He shows a lot of the traits you look for in both a free safety and a strong safety on the field and his measurables are likely to be a big positive. There are also a number of reports from the Shrine Game all-star event that Bush improved dramatically throughout the week compared to his 2015 tape because of the better coaching at the shrine event.
Add up all these factors, and Bush shouldn't last past the third round.
4. Current NFL Draft preferences
Each year I try to make a final post before the draft on my draft preferences for the Jaguars top pick, but this year I want to keep track of the list on a weekly basis to show just how fluid the draft process is and how much things can change. As of now, here is my list of preferences for the No. 5 overall pick.
- Noah Spence
- Jalen Ramsey
- Joey Bosa
- Myles Jack
- Robert Nkemdiche
5. Weekly follow recommendations
Another weekly update I will try to implement this offseason is a new twitter follow suggestion for each week. There are a lot of great people to follow on twitter but there are a select few that I truly respect and value their opinion heavily.
The person I want to suggest to you this week is Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) of NFL.Com. I have mentioned Matt a few times in this space, but as the combine approaches he should be a much follow for the draft due to his work on wide receiver prospects where he combines both film and analytical data to formulate opinions. Also, he is the No. 1 Allen Robinson fan that is not currently residing in Duval.