The Jacksonville Jaguars had their fair share of players who outperformed their fantasy value last year. FanDuel consistently underpriced guys like Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, and Allen Hurns, valuing them in the middle of the pack and allowing users to reap the rewards of a quarterback who threw the second-most touchdowns in the league and a pair of receivers who combined for 2,431 yards and 24 touchdowns.
This year, however, is a different story. 4for4 Football has broken down the top three fantasy-relevant trends for every team and included some interesting nuggets about the Jaguars offense under Gus Bradley and Greg Olson.
1. Jacksonville was third in deep attempt percentage (24.1%). Allen Robinson led the NFL in deep targets (67). This is a good offense. After presiding over an excellent rookie season by Derek Carr in Oakland, Olson’s first year in Jacksonville coincided with a big second year leap for Blake Bortles.
In short, Greg Olson is a wizard with strong-armed quarterbacks and head coaches who let him work. That's not going to change in 2016, as the passing game will get stronger but will likely be statistically be less impressive. How can that be? Read their second point.
2. Olson never seemed to fully trust his T.J Yeldon-led backfield near the goal line last season. Jacksonville’s running backs handled just 39% of team touches inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. The lack of confidence in Yeldon was made apparent by the Chris Ivory signing.
All that is to say, the running game will be a lot stronger, Olson will lean on it more, and the passing game will become more efficient but decline in yards and touchdowns. I mean, you signed Ivory in the hopes that your running backs will get more than the four total touchdowns (rushing and receiving) they did in 2015.
3. Even though Jacksonville ranked fourth in red zone pass percentage (65.8%), running backs scoring only three of the offense’s 40 touchdowns is absurd. That will likely regress to the mean no matter what, and Ivory -- the likely new goal-line back -- will be the prime beneficiary.
We get really pumped for a second-year guy like T.J. Yeldon who averaged 4.1 yards per carry behind an offensive line that could see two or three new starters next year. But we could be hyping him above what the coaching staff intends. The signing of Chris Ivory clearly communicates they want to split carries between the two and I'm not so sure that Ivory won't be getting more snaps than Yeldon next year, both in and out of the red zone.
Read more from 4for4Football here.