After the first quarter of the season, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans are nearly tied for the best chances to win the AFC South and get to the playoffs this year, according to Aaron Schatz of ESPN and Football Outsiders.
6. Tennessee Titans (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 46.2 percent
The playoff odds are close enough for the three 2-2 AFC South teams that it makes sense to just think of them as tied. DVOA ratings rank them Houston (7), Jacksonville (8) and then Tennessee (17), but the remaining strength of schedule goes the other way, which is why the Titans have slightly higher chances of seeing the postseason.
The Titans are having the same season as the Patriots so far, to a lesser degree. They rank fourth in offensive DVOA but 31st in defensive DVOA. They also have had terrible luck, with opponents fumbling seven times but Tennessee recovering only one of them.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 45.2 percent
Jacksonville's fumble recovery luck has been the opposite of Tennessee's; the Jaguars have recovered five of seven opponent fumbles and two of their own three. Jacksonville ranks No. 1 in the league in pass defense DVOA, but dead last in run defense DVOA.
After four games, the Titans dominated the Jaguars who dominated the Texans who dominated the Titans. There’s really no way to know who’s for real and who’s not, but if we’re looking at projections and likely scenarios, the Titans have the easiest schedule from here on out and the best quarterback in the AFC South.
The Texans, however, have shown signs of life at the quarterback position, with Deshaun Watson playing very well recently after a rocky start. And the Jaguars could be a 10-win team with average quarterback play, except — they don’t have an average quarterback.