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How have the Jaguars played after bye weeks?

Jacksonville Jaguars v Indianapolis Colts Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off of a bye week, as the team prepares to take on the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.

The 4-3 Jaguars are, of course, looking for a win and will try to take over sole possession of first place in the AFC South if they’re able to do so and the Tennessee Titans fall to the Baltimore Ravens.

But how has Jacksonville performed historically after a bye week and what should we expect based on past performance?

Well, the Jaguars are 11-11 all-time. So, with a record right at .500, it’s kind of hard to draw any kind of tendencies. We can break this down a little bit further, though.

For instance, I could tell you that Jacksonville is 1-0 all-time when playing against Cincinnati after a bye week. The Jaguars demolished the Bengals 41-10 after the bye week during that magical 1999 season. The Jags are also 11-9 in all-time head-to-head matchups against the Bengals.

But one-game bye week success against an opponent isn’t exactly a large scale to go off of. Let’s look at the more recent games after a bye week for Jacksonville. Thanks to the handy Bye Week Reference page from Cheatsheet War Room, we’re able to delve a little bit further into bye week analysis.

Courtesy of Cheatsheet War Room

The above graphic shows Jacksonville’s past five games following a bye week from 2012 through 2016. At first glance, it’s easy to determine some high-level takeaways, such as the Jaguars recording a 2-3 record during that span and losing two of the past three contests after a bye.

Jacksonville was able to take down the Chicago Bears after the bye week last season, thanks to a late touchdown catch and run by Arrelious Benn. But before that, the Jags last win after a bye was 2013.

The Bye Week Reference page lists teams coming off of a bye week with an 83-75-2 record overall, or about a 52 percent winning clip, since 2012. Jacksonville’s record of 2-3 in that time frame ranks just 22nd in the league.

According to the Cheatsheet War Room data, Week 10 is the best week to play following a bye week in terms of winning percentage for the league as a whole. Teams who had a Week 9 bye from 2012 through 2016 combined for a 16-10 record in Week 10s, for a winning percentage of .615 percent.

Week 6 also worked well for teams following a Week 5 bye, with a combined record of 11-7 (.611) from 2012 to 2016. It looks like Week 11 is the week to avoid for bye weeks, as teams combined for just a .389 winning percentage (7-11) following that week.

Obviously, the Jaguars had a Week 8 bye in 2017. In the past five years, teams coming off of a Week 8 bye have a losing record when playing in Week 9 at 10-12 (.455 percent).

The graphic also shows how the Jaguars fare when playing against opponents who are coming off a bye week. Since 2012, the Jaguars are 2-2 in that regard, but lost on both of those occasions in 2016 against the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans. The Los Angeles Chargers will visit Jacksonville in Week 10, following their Week 9 bye.

The Jaguars have went 5-5 in the last 10 years after a bye week, and 7-8 in the last 15 years. But this 2017 Jaguars team just looks and feels much different than recent Jaguars team. The mediocre play after bye weeks we’ve seen in the past isn’t necessarily what we should expect. I foresee a win against the Bengals in 2017.