FanPost

The Plan Is Working (So Far...)

Fournette vs. Steelers

Back in May, I wrote an article "Back to the Basics: Why the Jaguars' Plan Makes Sense". There were 3 topics I addressed in that article: 1) what I thought the Jaguars' plan was; 2) why that plan made sense to me; and 3) whether I thought it would work or not.

You can read the article here, but to save you time and summarize, the Jaguars' plan for this season as I saw it would be three-fold: 1) get better on defense, 2) improve the running game, and 3) get back to the basics (be more fundamentally sound and control things like turnovers, field position, penalties, and time of possession). So how is the team doing in executing the plan so far?

I. The Jaguars' Plan

#1 - Get Better Defensively

Mission accomplished. Free agent additions Calais Campbell, A.J. Bouye, and Barry Church, combined with the growth/development/improvement of key young pieces on defense have made this unit into one of the NFL's elite. The Jags have 3 of the top 15 sack-leaders in the league (Campbell, Ngakoue, Fowler), a safety tied for 3rd in the league in interceptions (Gipson), the #1 scoring defense, the #1 defense in total yardage, the #1 defense in passing yards per attempt, the #1 defense in passing touchdowns allowed, the #1 defense in total sacks, and the #1 defense in opponent passer rating.

Wow. And the growth should hopefully continue for Ramsey, Jack, Fowler, Ngakoue, and company. The sky is the limit for this Jaguars defense.

#2 - Improve the Running Game

Mission also accomplished. No moves this offseason were more telling than the Jaguars' first two draft picks: a big and physical running back (Leonard Fournette) and a big and physical run blocker on the offensive line (Cam Robinson). Whether you agreed with those moves or not, at the very least they collectively signified an attempt to change the offensive identity and philosophy of this team.

While there is still clearly room for improvement on this offense, including in the starting 5 up front, the Jaguars currently are #1 in rushing yards, #1 in rushing yards per attempt, #1 in the longest run of the season (90 yards by Fournette), #1 in rushing yards per game, and tied for #3 in rushing touchdowns on the season (8). The Jags have also only lost 1 fumble when rushing the ball this season.

As for the rookie, Fournette? #6 in the the NFL in rushing yards, tied for #1 in rushing touchdowns, and #1 in rushing yards per game.

#3 - Back to the Basics

This was, in my opinion, the most important part of the plan.

Football can at times be over-complicated by all of us watching or analyzing it, but when you boil it down - the game can be summarized rather simply. It's about eliminating or reducing mistakes and controlling what you can control: things like turnovers, field position, penalties, and time of possession. Typically, the better you do in those categories, the more games you'll win. In fact, some games are won when one team simply makes less mistakes in those areas than the other team did (you can beat the opponent without even out-playing them).

The Jaguars clearly planned on taking a "no nonsense" approach to improving in those areas under Doug Marrone and Tom Coughlin. Running the ball and playing good defense is designed (among other things) to reduce turnovers while improving time of possession and field position. The team has also made discipline a priority, which has been and remains Coughlin's calling card.

So how are we doing in this regard, from last season in 2016 to this year?

TURNOVERS

2016 (last season)

  • - 16 differential (30th in NFL)
  • 13 takeaways (tied 30th in NFL)
  • 7 defensive interceptions (32nd in NFL)
  • 29 giveaways (tied 27th in NFL)
  • 13 fumbles lost (29th in NFL)
  • 39:61 fumble recovery ratio (32nd in NFL) (opponents recovered 61% of all fumbles by both teams against JAX)
2017
  • + 8 differential (3rd in NFL)
  • 16 takeaways (tied 3rd in NFL)
  • 10 defensive interceptions (tied 3rd in NFL)
  • 8 giveaways (tied 7th in NFL)
  • 1 fumble lost (tied 8th in NFL)
  • 58:42 fumble recovery ratio (10th in NFL) (JAX has recovered 58% of all fumbles by both teams)

TIME OF POSSESSION

2016 (last season)

  • 2 minutes and 31 seconds (2:31) average time of possession per drive (27th in NFL)
  • average time of possession percentage was 26th in NFL
2017
  • 2 minutes and 47 seconds (2:47) average time of possession per drive (13th in NFL)
  • average time of possession percentage per game is 8th in NFL

PENALTIES

2016 (last season)

  • 129 total penalties, 8.1 per game (2nd most in NFL)
  • 1,178 negative penalty yardage, 74.2 yards per game (2nd most in NFL)
  • 2.4 opponent penalty 1st downs per game (3rd worst in NFL)
  • 9.2 negative penalty yardage per penalty (5th worst in NFL)
  • 0.06 penalties per play (3rd worst in NFL)
2017
  • 48 total penalties, 6.9 per game (15th most in NFL)
  • 398 negative penalty yardage, 56.9 yards per game (10th FEWEST in NFL)
  • 1.4 opponent penalty 1st downs per game (5th BEST in NFL)
  • 8.3 negative penalty yardage per penalty (12th BEST in NFL)
  • 0.05 penalties per play (15th FEWEST in NFL)
The 2017 Jaguars are night and day better than the 2016 Jaguars in the "control what you can control" categories. There are still at times too many penalties, but on the whole, this team is a lot better at not making the big mistakes and forcing other teams into them. Through 7 games, we have 3 more takeaways than we did all of last season and are 24 turnovers better in differential than last season (+8 instead of -16). Wow.

II. Why the Plan Made Sense

Based on 2016's turnovers, time of possession, penalties, and lack of running game - the Jaguars plan made sense on its face in the spring:

Imagine if before every game, the Jaguars offered their opponents the following. "We'll start all our drives 5 yards further back than you do. We'll be penalized 8 times for about 75 yards. Two or three of those penalties will give your offense a first down. Oh and we'll turn it over twice on offense..."

What odds would you give the Jaguars of winning those games? Less than 20%? Me too. By the way, a 3-13 record is about 19% wins.

So if the plan is to run the ball, reduce the turnovers, improve field position and time of possession, and play more disciplined football with less penalties, then that plan makes 100% sense to me. Throw in (hopefully) more takeaways/sacks on defense and now you're cooking with fire.

III. Would the Plan Work?

I said then that the outcome of the plan would largely depend on the play of Blake Bortles. The most important piece of his play would be reducing the turnovers. So how has he done? 5 interceptions thrown and 2 fumbles lost for 7 total turnovers. So not great, but not too bad. Last season? He fumbled 8 times (lost 6) and threw 16 interceptions for 22 total turnovers.

So Bortles, while his inconsistency and decision-making remain an issue at times, is doing (most of the time) what this team is asking him to do: manage the game, take what the defense gives him, and take care of the football.

None of this was more evident than in the Jaguars' most recent outing, a 27-0 shutout on the road in Indianapolis. Never has Bortles looked more comfortable than he did in that game - and his numbers showed it:

  • 18/26 (69.2%) for 330 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT and a 95.5. QBR (the highest in the league in Week 7, and the 2nd-highest QBR by any QB in any game this season)

Conclusion

Yes, we are "only" 4-3. Yes, there are still 9 games left in the season. Yes, our 3 losses haven't been pretty.

But, we have already exceeded our win total from 2016 through just 7 games. The last time we had a winning record this late in the regular season was in 2010. We are tied for 1st place in the AFC South in November. If the season ended today, we would be in the playoffs. Our schedule sets up nicely, our defense looks incredible, and we are capable of making a run.

If things go the way they should, the Jaguars will (hopefully) be hosting a playoff game for the first time since January 23rd, 2000. Bill Clinton was President. Leonard Fournette had just turned 5 years old. I'd say the plan is working. At least so far.

FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of the authors of Big Cat Country or SB Nation.