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2017 NFL Week 9 DFS advice: May the odds be ever in your favor

Jacksonville Jaguars v Houston Texans Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

Congratulations, Jacksonville Jaguars fans… It’s an odd week! Around here, odd weeks equal wins.

Just like the Jaguars’ real life schedule, fantasy football is all about playing the “odds”. And while playing the odds normally means playing favorable matchups, sometimes playing the odds can mean exactly what it does for the Jaguars. That means playing a player on odd week based on a pattern of excellence.

The best example of this is Tyreek Hill, the dynamic play making wide receiver for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Just like the Jaguars, Hill has shined during the odd weeks and… well let’s just say his even weeks have been less than ideal.

During odd weeks, Hill has averaged 23.7 fantasy points while scoring no less than 16.8 in any matchup. That makes him the second highest scoring wide receiver in fantasy on odd weeks.

During even weeks, Hill has averaged a mere 7.4 fantasy points.

Tyreek Hill is basically the Jaguars of NFL wide receivers. Being that it’s an odd week, I’m going to take this pattern and play the “odds” with my lineup, and start him in all formats.

As expected, the Jaguars playmakers themselves have also followed this pattern which bodes well for our Jaguars based DFS lineup.

Leonard Fournette’s highest scoring outputs have taken place on odd weeks. Marcedes Lewis has only scored fantasy points on odd weeks. The Jaguars Defense has nearly tripled their fantasy point totals during odd weeks.

It only makes sense then to play our Jaguars’ players this week. And that’s just what we’re going to do.

As you know, every week I will help you build the best DFS Jaguars based team so you can not only root for the Jaguars as a whole, but also your favorite players.

As always, my lineup consists of a lot of value Jaguar plays, as well as guys I think are great overall DFS values. This roster is consisted of a $50,000 salary cap and configured by Draft Kings salary prices:

QB: Deshaun Wats... wait what was that? Welp, there goes that...

QB: Drew Brees - $7,000

This was supposed to be a whole write up about Deshaun Watson. How he’s the most electric fantasy scorer we’ve seen since Robert Griffin’s rookie campaign. But then upon submitting this article, I get a text that Watson has suffered a torn ACL. Therefore, let’s pivot to Drew Brees. He has an amazing matchup this week against a horrid Buccaneers secondary and is still a top-10 fantasy quarterback on the year.

RB1: Leonard Fournette - $8,400

He’s back! The third-highest scoring average of any fantasy running back this year makes his return to the lineup and just in time to face a Bengals team giving up an average of 111 yards on the ground every week. I told you before, there isn’t a week where Fournette isn’t going to be in our lineup. Get used to it.

RB2: Carlos Hyde - $5,200

Carlos Hyde was shut down last week. Actually, it was so bad, his backup Matt Breida stepped in and outperformed him handedly. Still, I think Hyde bounces back this week verses Arizona. They’re currently giving up a little over 100 yards on the ground each week and Hyde has actually only scored under 12 points twice this season while getting over the 20-point mark three times. Count on Hyde having a bounce back week this week for the price of an RB3.

WR1: Allen Hurns - $4,100

Hurns caught five of eight passes for 101 yards in the Jaguars last matchup. It’s hard to predict which Jaguars wide receiver will emerge as the number one guy week in and week out but I’m going with Hurns this week. Do I have solid evidence to support that claim? Nope. Is this a Jaguars-based DFS lineup that requires Jaguar players in it? Yep.

WR2: Tyreek Hill - $6,700

If you’re curious why I’m starting Tyreek Hill, you didn’t actually read the beginning of the article.

WR3: Ted Ginn Jr. - $4,300

Here lies another opportunity to follow the theme of this week and “play the odds”. Ted Ginn, Jr. has averaged 16 points during the odd weeks and only 9.1 during even weeks, nearly doubling his output. Add to that fact that he’s matching up against a Bucs team that currently ranks 30th in the league against fantasy wide receivers. Odds are, he’ll have a nice game for a cheap price.

TE: Marcedes Lewis - $2,600

It’s pretty simple. When Marcedes scores fantasy points, the Jaguars win. Someone call Doug Marrone.

FLEX: Chris Thompson - $6,100

I tried to tell you guys about Chris Thompson weeks ago. I hope you listened. So far this year, Thompson has scored at least 16 fantasy points in all but one outing. He’s a PPR machine and currently the eighth-highest scoring running back in fantasy football. He’s a RB1 week in and out while never being priced higher than an RB2. Start him with confidence even verses Seattle.

DST: Jaguars - $3,800

*insert SacksonvilleSecondary.jpg image*

So, there you have it. My ultimate Jaguars-based DFS team for Week 9.

And may the “odds” be ever in your favor.