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Another Early Look at "No INTs Draft Scores"

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Stats and Quarterbacks, an age old tale.

Each and every year, fans and prognosticators alike argue over which QB prospects they think are the best in each draft, and some form of stats inevitably enter into the discussion. In this article, we'll take a look at some quarterback stats and how one of my stats (the "No INTs Draft Score") would have fared as a pre-draft measure.

Methodology

Using splits stats from 60 QB prospects from since the 2009 draft to develop a list of College "No INTs Draft Scores".

Separate that list into a group of "Qualifying QBs" and "Non-Qualifying QBs" based on having at least 280 pass attempts in two separate seasons.

Record the "No INTs Draft Score" from those prospects' NFL splits, as well as their pro career QB rating, and their pro career Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A).

Use pro career data gathered from most starting QBs since 2009 (not just the players since that year's draft) to approximate good performance at the QB position, and see how 3 tiers of college QB prospects (by their pre-draft numbers) have done statistically as pros.

Setting the Standards

Ever wonder what the career stats of almost all QBs to start in the NFL since 2009 looks like? I hope so, because here they are.

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Even though it looks a bit garish, I've taken the liberty of highlighting the zones that will be considered "Average or Above" moving forward in yellow.

How Qualifying QBs Fared

Finally, we reach the main course.

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As we can see from this graphic, you don't gain a whole lot more of a hit rate by lowering your standard to a 72 No INTs Draft Score for a prospect leaving college, but the hit rate takes a pretty drastic hit going below a score of 72. If you are looking at college QBs with a No INTs Draft Score below 72, you are already doing worse than a coin flip proposition.

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If QB rating is a stat you are more comfortable with, know that 100% of qualifying QB prospects scoring over 90 have been at least average as pros, over 92% of qualifying QB prospects scoring over 72 have been at least average at the next level. Like a prospect under a score of 72? Hope you are comfortable with the odds of them being below average being as high as they are.

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And if we use ANY/A as our measuring stick... We still have a 100% hit rate on qualifying college QB prospects who score over 90 in No INTs Draft Score, 92% hit rate on 72+ prospects, and you might be better off flipping coins below 72.

Closing Statements

So while it is probably too early for me to be so high on the particular set of stats that comprise "Draft Scores", the early results have shown a lot of promise in helping to highlight prospects who tend to be good at the next level.

Possible QBs available this offseason under the age of 33 who scored "Average or Above" in all 3 measures are: Kirk Cousins, Teddy Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor, and Colin Kaepernick.

And as a refresher, here is how the upcoming draft class looked at their midseason check in.

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FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of the authors of Big Cat Country or SB Nation.