The Jacksonville Jaguars may be in second place in the AFC South, but they currently have the best odds in the division to make the playoffs this year.
That’s according to ESPN’s Football Outsiders, who think the Jaguars have the third-best odds in the AFC at a whopping 95.6 percent.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 95.6 percent
Jacksonville has been the league's least consistent team this season, with the highest variation of game-to-game DVOA. The Jaguars have huge victories over playoff-bound teams such as Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but they also lost to the Jets and Cardinals. The loss to Arizona didn't hurt their overall playoff chances much because of the general mediocrity below them in the AFC. But the loss dropped Jacksonville's odds of winning the AFC South from 85 percent to 66 percent and dropped its odds of making Super Bowl LII from 17 percent to 11 percent.
Nevertheless, the Jaguars are clearly in the driver's seat to finish first in the division, even though they lost to Tennessee and have to travel to Nashville for the rematch. They have three straight home games coming up, including easy contests against Houston and Indianapolis, and also travel to San Francisco on Christmas Eve before the Week 17 Tennessee rematch.
And how are the Titans looking?
6. Tennessee Titans (7-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 68.5 percent
Technically, the Titans are ahead of the Jaguars in tiebreakers for the AFC South crown. But the Jaguars have been the far superior team this season, eighth in DVOA compared to Tennessee ranking just 22nd. And the Titans have a more difficult remaining schedule. They have two West Coast trips compared to just one for Jacksonville, and they play the healthy and dominating Los Angeles Rams instead of the competitive but riddled-by-injury Seattle Seahawks (whom they beat in Nashville earlier this season). The most important game by far will be that Week 17 rematch with Jacksonville; the Titans win the division two-thirds of the time in simulations in which they win that game.
More difficult remaining schedule? Less games at home? Less talented roster especially on defense?
Gimme that AFC South title.