With the NFL Draft being only nine days from today, mock drafts are flying. Some of the mock drafts being put out are well done and come from thorough analyzing. And some of the mock drafts being put out make zero sense.
ProFootballFocus.com put out a mock draft today, with the first three picks being:
- Cleveland Browns: Myles Garrett, EDGE, Texas A&M
- San Francisco 49ers: Mitchell Trubisky, QB, UNC
- Chicago Bears: Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama
These picks are not only reasonable, but smart: Addressing big needs for each team...
Then, when Jacksonville went on the clock, PFF made an unreasonable, and seemingly unanalyzed, pick for the Jaguars: Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State. Here's their reasoning for the pick:
The Jaguars stayed true to the big board and selected the top cornerback in the class, Marshon Lattimore. Opposing QBs only had a 30.2 passer rating when throwing into Lattimore’s coverage in 2016. Pairing Lattimore with last year’s first-round pick, Jalen Ramsey, will give the Jaguars one of the best young cornerback duos in the NFL, and a formidable force for years. — Jordan Plocher, @PFF_Jordan
First off, no one even knows if Marshon Lattimore is the 4th overall prospect on the Jaguars big board.
Second, did PFF forget that the Jaguars signed A.J. Bouye to a $67.5 million contract in free agency?
Yes, Lattimore is a great prospect and is a phenomenal cover cornerback, but this pick would make zero sense. The Jaguars drafted cornerback Jalen Ramsey with the 5th overall pick last year, and spent big bucks on cornerback A.J. Bouye in free agency to play opposite of Ramsey.
I used Spotrac.com to figure out how much money the Jaguars would be spending in guarantees on Ramsey, Bouye, and Lattimore if they were to select Lattimore with the 4th overall pick, and it isn’t pretty: They’d be spending nearly $75 million in guarantees, based on Ramsey’s $22.5 million in guarantees, Bouye’s $26 million in guarantees, and the 4th overall pick's (in this case, Lattimore's) projected guarantees -- based on projected rookie contracts by slotted pick and the 98.2% guaranteed of Ezekiel Elliott's contract after being selected 4th overall last year -- $26.5 million.
The Jaguars need to add a cornerback or two in this draft as depth behind Ramsey and Bouye, but considering that they already host a potentially elite cornerback tandem and have several more pressing needs (DE, OL, TE, and even RB), selecting Marshon Lattimore with the 4th overall pick would make zero sense for the Jaguars.