FanPost

Jaguars: Wake me up when September ends

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

It's no secret that the Jacksonville Jaguars have struggled over the last decade. Not surprisingly, our bad records have also included bad starts.

But the true extent of the bad starts and their effect on the franchise have perhaps been overlooked or understated.

After all, if you're a bad team, starting 2-0 or 0-2 doesn't make a difference in the long run, right?

The problem with that thinking is this: it actually makes a huge difference, because bad teams don't typically start the season off with a good record, while good teams -- playoff teams -- do. Not only that, but poor starts to the season can affect team morale, player confidence, the coaching staff, trust in the locker room, momentum, fan attendance and home field advantage, TV ratings and more. It can also greatly affect a team's ability to win close games later in the year.

The Jaguars are perhaps the strongest evidence of this.

Here's a look at some alarming numbers, and what they mean for the Jaguars in 2017.

The numbers

Openers (Week 1)

2008​: lost
2009: lost
2010​: won
2011​: won
2012​: lost
2013​: lost
2014​: lost
2015​: lost
2016​: lost

The Jaguars are 2-7 since 2008 and 0-5 since 2012 in the first game of the season. They have started the season 0-1 for the last 5 consecutive years.

Home openers (first home game of season)

2008​: lost
2009: lost
2010​: won
2011​: won
2012​: lost
2013​: lost
2014​: lost
2015​: lost
2016​: lost

The Jaguars are also 2-7 since 2008 and 0-5 since 2012 in the first home game of the season. They have lost their first game in Jacksonville five years in a row.

Road openers (1st road game of season)

2008​: lost
2009: lost
2010​: lost
2011​: lost
2012​: lost
2013​: lost
2014​: lost
2015​: lost
2016​: lost

The Jaguars are 0-9 since 2008 in their first road game of the season. They have lost their first away game of the season for nine consecutive years.

Starts to season (record before first or second win)

2008​: 0-2
2009: 0-2
2010​: 1-2
2011​: 1-5
2012​: 1-9
2013​: 0-8
2014​: 1-10
2015​: 1-5
2016​: 0-3

Wow. Just wow.

Record in September

2008​: 2-2
2009: 1-2
2010​: 1-2
2011​: 1-2
2012​: 1-3
2013​: 0-4
2014​: 0-4
2015​: 1-2
2016​: 0-3

The Jaguars are 7-24 in September since 2008 (.226 winning percentage). They are also 1-13 in September since 2013 (.071 winning percentage). The team has lost 93% of its September games over the last 4 seasons.

The last day the Jaguars were .500 during the regular season was September 26th, 2015... or 666 days ago.

The last day the Jaguars had a winning record during the regular season was September 17th, 2011... or 5 years, 10 months, and 6 days ago.

In other words, every year since 2011 the Jaguars' season has been virtually over (i.e. "we have no realistic shot of making the playoffs") by the time we reach Columbus Day, or Halloween if we're lucky.

Why does this matter?

Getting off to a good start is a critical part of being successful in the NFL, perhaps more than we realize. The numbers back this up in a big way, too. Those first three or four games can't win you a Super Bowl, but they sure as hell can cost you a realistic shot at the playoffs.

Here's the percentage of NFL teams that made the playoffs based on their four-game starts since 1990:

  • 0-4..... 1%
  • 1-3..... 15%
  • 2-2..... 36%
  • 3-1..... 63%
  • 4-0..... 83%
And here's the same stat, percentage of NFL teams that made the playoffs since 1990, based on just their three-game starts:
  • 0-3..... 2%
  • 1-2..... 25%
  • 2-1..... 53%
  • 3-0..... 75%
Starting the season 2-1 instead of 1-2 increases your playoff odds by 28%. Starting the season 3-1 instead of 2-2 increases your playoff odds by 27%.

What does this mean for the Jaguars in 2017?

The first thre games of the season are absolutely critical. We play two divisional games (one home, one away) and our only nationally televised game of the season is at Wembley Stadium in London. The Jaguars desperately need to get off to a good start to the season, and that means winning at least two of those first three games (and, ideally, three of their first four).

The need for a strong start in the first three or four games is amplified by there being two divisional games early (at Houston and vs. Tennessee) and perhaps the hardest game of the season on paper coming in Week 5 (at Pittsburgh).

The Jaguars can't make the playoffs in the first month of the season. But they can cost themselves any realistic opportunity of being in the hunt. We will know where this team is headed by the time they finish their Week 4 matchup on the road at New York Jets. Their playoff odds based on history will range from 1% (0-4) to 83% (4-0), or most likely somewhere in between. But 3-1 is actually a whole lot better than 2-2; historically it increases your playoff odds by 27%, but in the AFC South it's more than likely an even bigger increase, especially if two of those wins come against divisional foes (Houston and Tennessee).

Here's to hoping for the first strong start by the Jaguars in a long, long time. Wake me up when September ends.

What do you think? Vote and let me know in comments below. Thanks, and Go Jags.

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