It's no secret that the Jacksonville Jaguars have struggled over the last decade. Not surprisingly, our bad records have also included bad starts.
But the true extent of the bad starts and their effect on the franchise have perhaps been overlooked or understated.
After all, if you're a bad team, starting 2-0 or 0-2 doesn't make a difference in the long run, right?
The problem with that thinking is this: it actually makes a huge difference, because bad teams don't typically start the season off with a good record, while good teams -- playoff teams -- do. Not only that, but poor starts to the season can affect team morale, player confidence, the coaching staff, trust in the locker room, momentum, fan attendance and home field advantage, TV ratings and more. It can also greatly affect a team's ability to win close games later in the year.
The Jaguars are perhaps the strongest evidence of this.
Here's a look at some alarming numbers, and what they mean for the Jaguars in 2017.
The numbers
Openers (Week 1)
2008: lost
2009: lost
2010: won
2011: won
2012: lost
2013: lost
2014: lost
2015: lost
2016: lost
The Jaguars are 2-7 since 2008 and 0-5 since 2012 in the first game of the season. They have started the season 0-1 for the last 5 consecutive years.
Home openers (first home game of season)
2008: lost
2009: lost
2010: won
2011: won
2012: lost
2013: lost
2014: lost
2015: lost
2016: lost
The Jaguars are also 2-7 since 2008 and 0-5 since 2012 in the first home game of the season. They have lost their first game in Jacksonville five years in a row.
Road openers (1st road game of season)
2008: lost
2009: lost
2010: lost
2011: lost
2012: lost
2013: lost
2014: lost
2015: lost
2016: lost
The Jaguars are 0-9 since 2008 in their first road game of the season. They have lost their first away game of the season for nine consecutive years.
Starts to season (record before first or second win)
2008: 0-2
2009: 0-2
2010: 1-2
2011: 1-5
2012: 1-9
2013: 0-8
2014: 1-10
2015: 1-5
2016: 0-3
Wow. Just wow.
Record in September
2008: 2-2
2009: 1-2
2010: 1-2
2011: 1-2
2012: 1-3
2013: 0-4
2014: 0-4
2015: 1-2
2016: 0-3
The Jaguars are 7-24 in September since 2008 (.226 winning percentage). They are also 1-13 in September since 2013 (.071 winning percentage). The team has lost 93% of its September games over the last 4 seasons.
The last day the Jaguars were .500 during the regular season was September 26th, 2015... or 666 days ago.
The last day the Jaguars had a winning record during the regular season was September 17th, 2011... or 5 years, 10 months, and 6 days ago.
In other words, every year since 2011 the Jaguars' season has been virtually over (i.e. "we have no realistic shot of making the playoffs") by the time we reach Columbus Day, or Halloween if we're lucky.
Why does this matter?
Getting off to a good start is a critical part of being successful in the NFL, perhaps more than we realize. The numbers back this up in a big way, too. Those first three or four games can't win you a Super Bowl, but they sure as hell can cost you a realistic shot at the playoffs.
Here's the percentage of NFL teams that made the playoffs based on their four-game starts since 1990:
- 0-4..... 1%
- 1-3..... 15%
- 2-2..... 36%
- 3-1..... 63%
- 4-0..... 83%
- 0-3..... 2%
- 1-2..... 25%
- 2-1..... 53%
- 3-0..... 75%