FanPost

Jaguars run game still has some question marks

Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The Jacksonville Jaguars are fresh off a win, and many fans are pretty pumped. But perhaps we should be pumping the brakes instead. While our team box score and that "W" in the win column look good at first glance, on closer inspection, not much has really changed compared to last year.

Success rate

While much has already been made about numerous player's yards per carry, the counter point has been that despite poor yardage averages (outside of Corey Grant) the running backs still looked like effective rushers. I'd lend that thought some credence, though most of y'all are saying it about the wrong running backs.

Success rate is basically a measure of how a player is keeping the offense "on pace" and is a binary evaluation of a player's output given the context of the down and distance they are earning their stats on. Gain 10 yards on third-and-15? Good for fantasy football, but you'll still get a goose egg.

Likewise, if it is third-and-short, success rate doesn't care if you get eight yards or two, a first down is all that matters.

Last year the Jaguars ranked 20th in the league in rushing success rate with 44% of our runs being successful. Adding to the offensive line and drafting a running back fourth overall and... well, we drop to 43% (so far).

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Obviously this season is using a small sample size, so I'll hold off on being negative about Leonard Fournette and avoid praising Tim Cook. However, much like throwing five interceptions in practice isn't a good look for a quarterback who has always struggled with turnovers, to see players like Ivory and Yeldon continue struggling in this area like they did last year is not a good look. Likewise, Grant has been an effective "on pace" runner, something people might be quick to overlook given how his yards-per-carry is often inflated by a ridiculously long rush (or two).

Yellow Zone touchdown percentage

Prior to the draft I wrote about the concept of the Yellow Zone and it highlighted Fournette as a player who might be good at scoring touchdowns close to the goal line.

Here was what we looked like before drafting Fournette:

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And so far since we have drafted Fournette:

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Fournette has looked good in this regard, overall the team hasn't really improved though. Again, small sample, and is way too early to think this is definitive.

Running Back Rating

A stat I made up this offseason was to make a quarterback rating analog for running backs, and while all running back stats might not matter, so far this stat has had the highest correlation with wins. Turns out the Jaguars did really well in this regard, being carried by Grant and Fournette.

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TL;DR:

Given our first preseason game, we had some good individual performances at running back, but there are still some areas where the same roster locks are struggling in old and familiar ways.

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