Some players are must starts (Aaron Rodgers, Alvin Kamara, and Rob Gronkowski, to name a few), but here we work to give you value and over-performers, depending on what type of fantasy format you are playing. At this point we are breaking up start/sit for Thursday and Sunday/Monday games. We apologize to those who must have complete lineups in by Thursday’s game.
Matt Phillips is a multiple fantasy football champion, and co-host of the podcast “Pigskin Dynasty: Your Podcast for All Things Fantasy Football”. You can find him on iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, Podbean, and other podcast mediums. He also has live episodes on Facebook every Sunday morning at 9:00 am EST.
So I am in the mountains trying to hammer this out, but this slow wi-fi connection is my nemesis.
Tonight’s game gives you one must-start. Just one, and his name is Deandre Hopkins. Surely you wont’ just watch for him. Well, hopefully these recommendations will give you a reason to watch.
Matt and I are more in agreement this week, but I did tweak a few numbers. He’s the expert so thre is always a risk when I test the breaker box.
Hope. Remember when we had hope? I think Matt still has hope.
QB Deshaun Watson, Texans
Watson has been injured of late which may have caused the Texans to run the ball more heavily, but I am confident he can have a 20+ point fantasy performance this week.
His passing yards this season aren’t a confidence boost, but his much maligned offensive line showed life last week. The Dolphins are 9th best in allowing points to fantasy quarterbacks, but the Dolphins have been vulnerable to the running game which may open up the play action for Watson.
Projection: 245 yards passing with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, along with 27 rushing yards
RB Lamar Miller, Texans
Miller has been the guy that everyone thought he was going to be, especially with the workhorse role he has. He exploded against the Jaguars number one rated defense for his first 100 yard game since 2016. The Dolphins were gashed for 248 rushing yards last week and I think Miller is going to have a pretty amazing game.
For the season, the Dolphins are giving up close to 23 ppg to fantasy running backs on average. I really like Miller tonight.
I added 20 rushing yards and 1 touchdown to Matt’s projection.
Projection: 122 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 1 rec 10 yards
RB Kenyan Drake, Dolphins
Drake falls victim to Frank Gore, and it is driving fantasy owners crazy. The Dolphins seem adamant on giving Gore touches which limits Drakes upside. Gore had 11 touches to drakes 10, but Drake gained 87 yards to Gores 33. He also had a beautiful 54 yard touchdown run.
So why am I starting him? Drake is a better receiver than Gore, and I believe the Texans will get ahead quite early making the Dolphins play from behind.
Projection: 6 carries for 45 yards, and 6 receptions for 52 yards and 1 touchdown
WR Will Fuller, Texans
The Dolphins pass defense is ranked 23rd in the league and even though Will’s last two weeks have been duds, I believe he finally comes back to that WR2 category after a string of three games without a touchdown.
Those 8 targets from last week are an indication he and Watson are ready to connect.
Projection: 4 receptions for 52 yards and 1 touchdown
WR Danny Amendola, Dolphins
He led the team with receptions and yards last week, catching six passes for 84 yards along with his first touchdown of the season. Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills are expected to be out, and Danny’s target volume should increase. Brock Osweiler should look his way quite often.
Projection: 7 receptions for 65 yards and 1 touchdown
K Ka’imi Faribarin, Texans
He is tied for first with field goals attempted with 20 and he will have plenty of opportunities to score points as the Dolphins give up around 8 fantasy points per game.
He’s pretty much a must-start kicker at this point.
Projection: 3 for 3 on extra points and 2 for 2 on field goals
Houston Texans Defense
They have the 14th best secondary in the league and they are going up against Brock Osweiler! Come on! Do you really need a breakdown?
What did Elway see in him?!??
Projection: 17 points allowed with 3 sacks and 3 total turnovers
QB Brock Osweiler, Dolphins
So I guess I’ll throw you a bone and give you a breakdown.
He lacks the explosiveness that Tannehill has and Javeon Clowney and JJ Watt. I expect Osweiler to be on his back and not have enough time to make decent throws up. I do believe you he will get you at least one garbage touchdowns at them end of the game.
But I get it. He lit up the Bears. He backed it up with as solid 2 touchdown and zero interception game against the Lions. The Texans defense has not given up two touchdowns to an opposing QB since week 4.
I agree with Matt. That garbage TD gets him to 2.
Projection: 210 yards passing with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions
RB Frank Gore, Dolphins
He has been ineffective with his touches and I believe the Dolphins will be down early and often meaning he might ride the bench while Drake plays.
While he hasn’t found the end zone on the ground all year, what scares me a bit would be a goal line score from Gore. Hey, I’m a poet! Sorry.
Projection: 37 rushing yards on 9 attempts, and 2 receptions for 11 yards
WR DeVante Parker, Dolphins
The good news is that he looks like he will play. That doesn’t mean I’ll start him right away. Quad injury’s don’t just go away and I want to see his workload before starting him. He may play decoy and adjust coverages so Amendola gets open.
There is enough talent playing this weekend to not risk a roster spot.
Projection: 3 receptions for 32 yards
All Tight Ends of Houston and Maimi
Can you even name one of them? Seriously, name a tight end for either of these teams.
Derby and Gesiki are both questionable, but it looks like Gesiki will play and Derby will not. Ryan Griffin is out leaving Jordan Adkins as the starter like he was last week when he got ZERO targets.
Out of the ones I mention I like Gesiki. He has touchdown potential.
Mike Gesiki projection: 3-34
Jordan Adkins projection: does it matter? No way someone is starting him. He is awful.
K Jason Sanders, Dolphins
With the Offense sputtering our of control, Sanders kicking opportunities may be limited, and he missed his only attempt last week. I’ll look elsewhere for a kicker this week
Projection: 1 for 2 on field goals and 2 for 2 on extra points
Miami Dolphins Defense
I like Houston offense a lot. Even with an injured Watson they have been efficient. The Houston defense will get turnovers leading to the Dolphins defensive desperation and Texans offensive opportunities, like a raging Rio Grande river. Man I’m feeling the creative juices flowing!
Projection: 31 points allowed with 2 turnovers and 1 sack.