Some players are must starts (Aaron Rodgers, Alvin Kamara, and Rob Gronkowski, to name a few), but here we work to give you value and over-performers, depending on what type of fantasy format you are playing. At this point we are breaking up start/sit for Thursday and Sunday/Monday games. We apologize to those who must have complete lineups in by Thursday’s game.
Matt Phillips is a multiple fantasy football champion, and co-host of the podcast “Pigskin Dynasty: Your Podcast for All Things Fantasy Football”. You can find him on iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, Podbean, and other podcast mediums. He also has live episodes on Facebook every Sunday morning at 9:00 am EST.
On behalf of Matt and me we want to wish everyone a very Happy Thanksgiving. Hopefully you are thankful for this weekly column, though we sure wish our prognostication skills were closer to 100%.
A man can dream.
A found a great meme on Instagram that showed four panes of action. The first was a person in a lesser car coveting a brand new car. Next was a person on a bike sharing that he wished he could afford a car. The third pane showed a person at a bus stop fawning over the person on the bike. The last pane had a person on a balcony, unable to move about, looking at the person walking from the bus stop and sharing how cool it was that the person could go anywhere.
Be safe and happy. Find at least one thing to be grateful for and hold it tightly.
Of the quarterbacks playing today, you are probably looking at Matt Ryan and Drew Brees as easy plays. The other four are probably concerning, but at least one might surprise you.
Turkey day is here folks which means bird, football, and viewing all the Friends Thanksgiving episodes. Well, that’s what we do in the Fullford house. I don’t know if Matt does that, but I bet het does. Three really good division games are slated for Thursday so let’s get to business. You are starting Brees, Kamara, Thomas, Jones, Zeke.
Matt’s Projection for studs
QB Drew Brees, Saints
Projection: 352 yards passing and 4 touchdowns
RB Alvin Kamara, Saints
Projection: 54 yards rushing wit 5 receptions for 65 yards and 1 touchdown
WR Michael Thomas, Saints
Projection: 10 recpetions for 105 yards and 1 touchdown
WR, Julio Jones, Falcons
Projection: 9 receptions for 124 yards and 1 touchdown
RB Ezekiel Elliot, Cowboys
Projection: 92 yards rushing with 1 touchdown and 4 receptions for 25 yards
WR Allen Robinson, Bears
I hope you took my advice last week. Collins definitely delivered, giving you solid RB1 numbers. This week’s pick might seem odd considering the state of the Chicago Bears QB situation. Matt went with another Bears receiver, but I see Allen Robinson giving you a sneaky payload.
Robinson went off for 133 yards and 2 touchdowns in his last game against the Lions, and while you should not accept similar numbers he should get looks from Chase Daniel. Detroit allows wide receivers to have success. While Robinson has been all but a bust this season, I like him in this matchup.
This one could bite me.
Projection: 5 receptions for 72 yards and 1 touchdown
QB Colt McCoy, Redskins
Look I’m a Cowboys fan and I have a feeling Colt will deliver. He has been in Washington for a long time and knows that system. There is a nagging feeling he is going to make my Cowboys look horrible. He is very cheap in Daily and I think he is worth the spend.
Projection: 257 yards passing with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception
RB Jordan Howard, Bears
Chase Daniel is the starting QB and that implies more of a run script offense for the Bears. I expect a two touchdown performance here for Howard.
Projection: 15 rushing attempts for 65 yards and 2 touchdowns
RB Theo Riddick, Lions
Kerryon Johnson is out meaning Riddick gets the load. As a RB3 in PPR leagues you have to love what he brings to the lineup. Last week he hauled in 5 of his 7 looks. Stanford may need to dump the ball off against that Bears pass rush.
Projection: 42 yards rushing with 6 receptions for 64 yards and 1 touchdown
WR Taylor Gabriel, Bears
I expect Darius Slay to shadow Robinson which may open up opportunities for Gabriel to exploit. He lead the team in targets last week, and I think he may be in for a good game even with Daniels at QB
Projection: 5 receptions for 45 yards and 1 touchdown
TE Ben Watson, Saints
I have a feeling that Trequan Smith may be out and even if he isn’t he may be limited. I expect Ben Watson to pick up the load some what in a game that can be high scoring. He is getting a touchdown.
Projection: 4 receptions for 34 yards and 1 touchdown
Matt’s sleeper pick. With a home game on Thanksgiving, and additionally an important division game, the Lions will impress. Also Chase Daniels is going to start. They may give up points but I’m banking on turnovers.
Projection: 21 points allowed with 4 sacks and 3 turnovers
K Will Lutz, Saints
The Saints have been averaging over 40 points per game in the last three outings. I foresee another high point total for the Saints and kicking opportunities for Lutz
Projection: 2 for 2 on field goals with 4 for 4 on extra points
QB Chase Daniels, Bears
He is getting the start but he shouldn’t be getting the start on your fantasy team. He has played in a while and even though the matchup is decent against the lions I believe a more run oriented offense for the bears.
Projection: 195 yards passing with 1 touchdown and 1 interception
QB Dak Prescott, Cowboys
There is something wrong with the development of Dak, something that may find Dallas with significant coaching changes in the offseason. Elliot is the workhorse, and should see a high majority of touches. The Dallas passing attack simply isn’t anything you want to base your fantasy team on.
Projection: 190 yards passing with 42 yards rushing and 1 rushing touchdown
RB Tarik Cohen, Bears
Just as game script hurts Howard in the past, I believe game script will hurt Cohen. He is a pass catcher and I think they will try to give Howard the ball as much as possible with the quarterback situation as it is.
Projection: 5 receptions for 31 yards and 21 yards rushing
RB Adrian Peterson, Redskins
I hate this matchup for him. Washington isn’t scoring, and Dallas defense is stout. I know Matt likes Colt McCoy, and maybe he steps in nicely, but I see the Cowboys stacking the box. Additionally, Adrian is becoming a touchdown or bust player.
Projection: 45 yards rushing
WR Allen Robinson, Bears
Here is where Matt and I disagree.
He is getting Shadow by Slay. Daniels may try to feed him the ball but that is a mystery. I sit him if I can due to the defensive matchup.
Projection: 4 receptions for 51 yards
TE Trey Burton, Bears
He has disappointed this season; he was suppose to take the next step and be the guy and he disappointed yet again with one catch. He wasn’t getting used when Trubisky was the guy so why should we think he is going to be the guy with Daniels. Sit him
Projection: 3 receptions for 24 yards
K Cody Parker, Bears
Missed both attempts two weeks ago. He may not even have a job soon. He is on thin ice. I don’t think he will have a good game especially with the offense not up to standards with Trubisky out.
Projection: 0 for 1 field goals and 3 for 3 on extra points
Self explanatory. 40 points per game over the last three games. The Saints are going to carve up these birds. Sit them.
Projection: 38 points allowed with 2 sacks and 1 turnover