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The 2018 NFL regular season is upon us and that means watching games you wouldn’t otherwise have even thought to tune in because you’ve got $200 riding on the 4-point underdog. They’re down by eight. They’re at the 23-yard line. They’re going for it on fourth-and-goal. A holding call has them backed up. And what a DUMBASS call it was. Why are they going for it on fourth down? Kick the field goal. KICK THE FIELD GOAL. GOD NO GOD NOOOOOOOOO WHAT AM I GOING TO TELL MY WIFE?
Anyway, I thought it might be fun to pick a few of the betting lines from week to week and see how much I’d win or lose over the course of a season if I took my own advice.
Here we go!
Note: I use Bovada’s odds just a few hours before the game for all the spreads.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.0) vs Atlanta Falcons
Yes, Nick Foles is a backup quarterback, but he’s a very capable backup quarterback who could steer any good roster to the playoffs — or an elite defense to the Super Bowl. Do I think they come out of the gate and win against the Falcons? Nope, not even at home.
Bet on the Falcons and take the point.
Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) vs Buffalo Bills
This line started at 3.0 points for the Ravens and has skyrocketed to 7.5 because everyone remembered that Nathan Peterman is the starting quarterback for the Bills. He’s going to very bad and the Ravens have a good enough defense to make themselves look otherworldly. It’s too early to bench Peterman early in the game so I think the Ravens win by at least two scores at home.
Bet on the Ravens and give up 7.5 points to the Bills.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.0) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck is rusty and while he’ll be throwing regulation footballs for the first time since 2016 the rest of the roster is not enough to help him shake off that rust throughout the course of this game.
Bet on the Bengals and give three points to the Colts.
New York Giants (+3.0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars defensive line isn’t going to allow Eli Manning off the field without sacking him five or six times. I really think this game gets out of hand early and Saquon Barkley isn’t going to be enough to save them.
Bet on the Jaguars and give up three points.