The Jacksonville Jaguars are going against arguably the worst team in the NFL this Sunday, the Cincinnati Bengals, whom are 0-6 to start the season. The Bengals rush defense is ranked dead last, so Leonard Fournette should have a big day — which is great for the passing offense because Gardner Minshew is coming off his worst game of the season.
Keep in mind, Leonard Fournette has the opportunity to break a franchise record on Sunday. He is only 28 yards away from surpassing Fred Taylor for most rushing yards through 28 career games.
#Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette will likely break a record on Sunday.— Demetrius Harvey (@Demetrius82) October 19, 2019
If Fournette is able to rush for at least 28 yards he will have rushed for the most yards through 28 career games in franchise history, surpassing Fred Taylor (2,090 through 28 games)
Leonard Fournette rushed for 72 yards last week against the New Orleans Saints who have a pretty decent front four and a very good secondary as well, who held Garner Minshew to 163 yards. The Bengals run a similar defense to the Saints but are last in the NFL for giving up average yards per carry (5.3), average yards per game (184.5), and also last in giving up opponent rushing touchdowns per game (1.5).
Last week against the Saints, Fournette had some great runs and most of them were due to great blocking on the outside. Chris Conley has not been a huge impact catching the ball this season, but as a run blocker, he is key for the backfield!
Last week, Conley is lined up on the outside and makes a great block against the linebacker allowing Fournette to run for a big gain.
This is important for the Jaguars because the Bengals defense will take advantage of lack of blocking on the outside when it comes to running the ball, as you can see below in their game against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5.
The Cardinals and Jaguars have similar weapons on the outside including quick receivers who can run the ball.
On this play the Bengals linebackers lined up very close to each other and on the end-around run play, their linebackers only covered about four yards across and when the play was developing, those linebackers over-pursued which opened up a huge lane for the ball carrier.
Throughout the game, the Bengals were giving the Cardinals the same look on defense, so Arizona decided to stick with the same package and gave the ball to the running back who was successful in gaining four or five yards per carry.
With Marqise Lee gone, Dede Westbrook (if active) will get the ball on those jet-sweep looks and we all know has the ability to make the same plays running the ball.
Last week was not a great showing for the Jaguars offense, but after the press conference with offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, the fanbase should be confident in the offense’s ability to be successful against man defense. DiFilippo said if they see the same look, they know how to handle it and I believe running the ball will be the result.
Here is the Bengals offense lined up man to man against Arizona and the wide receiver motions across the line leaving the left side of the field wide open for the ball carrier.
These are the looks we should expect to see against Cincinnati and it’s why I think Jacksonville gets the win.
All graphics are made with @Klipdraw.