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ESPN gives Jaguars just 26.8 percent chance to make playoffs, lowest in AFC South

Indianapolis Colts v Jacksonville Jaguars Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be better this season. They’ve upgraded at quarterback and in the run game. The only real question is how much they’ll upgrade.

ESPN has projected win totals and playoff chances for all 32 teams with their Football Power Index. Here’s how the Football Power Index works:

Rather than compiling rankings from our throng of reporters and experts, we’re using this edition to unveil the first set of ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ratings. Each team’s rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency, as measured by expected points added per play, and that rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections.

And here’s what they had to say about the Jaguars:

Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected wins: 7.6

Chance to make playoffs: 26.8 percent

Where the team improved this offseason: Quarterback. Nick Foles might not be an elite QB, but he will bring the consistency the Jaguars have lacked at the position during the past five seasons with Blake Bortles. The Jaguars were never quite sure what they were going to get each week until the middle of the first quarter -- and when it was bad, it was really bad. The Jaguars also believe Foles’ accuracy will help a young group of receivers immensely because the ball will be placed in the right spot significantly more often than it was with Bortles. — Mike DiRocco

And here’s the rest of the AFC South:

I mean... yup. Until the Jaguars offense is good, it’s bad. The defense will carry it — and the addition of Josh Allen will make it oh so fun to watch — but I just don’t see how the team will consistently beat even average teams.

To get a spot in the playoffs, the team will have to show they can do better in division games. They went 1-5 in the division last season. They’re 9-15 over the last four seasons. They have to turn a corner to compete.

What do you think? Is 7-8 wins this season pessimistic? Or right in line with your predictions? Let us know in the comments below!