The Jacksonville Jaguars are finished with the first quarter of the season and if history is any indication, we can tell how most of the skill players will fare for the rest of the season (barring injury) based on how well they did through the first four games.
Case in point: Let’s take the 2017 season and compare the first four games vs. the entire season for the skill players.
Games 1-4: 6.04 yards per attempt for 183.00 yards, 1.75 touchdowns, and 0.75 interceptions per game.
Season: 7.05 yards per attempt for 230.00 yards, 1.32 touchdowns, and 0.81 interceptions per game.
Games 1-4: 3.51 yards per carry for 71.25 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game.
Season: 3.88 yards per carry for 80.00 yards and 0.69 touchdowns per game.
Games 1-4: 3.25 receptions for 39.75 yards and 0.00 touchdowns per game.
Season: 4.0 receptions for 50.14 yards and 0.21 touchdowns per game.
It’s not a perfect science, but there are ranges that can be extrapolated by taking in the four game sample size.
Now let’s look at how these comparable players are doing through the first four games of this season and project out their 2019 NFL season.
Games 1-4: 7.50 yards per attempt for 226.25 yards, 1.75 touchdowns, and 0.25 interceptions per game.
Season: 7.50 yards per attempt for 3,620 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.
Games 1-4: 5.60 yards per carry for 101.00 yards and 0.00 touchdowns per game.
Season: 5.60 yards per carry for 1,616 yards and 0 touchdowns.
Games 1-4: 4.75 receptions for 80.25 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game.
Season: 76 receptions for 1,284 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Games 1-4: 3.25 receptions for 54.25 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game.
Season: 52 receptions for 868 yards and 4 touchdowns.
While I don’t think Fournette’s stat total is all that realistic (he’s not finishing the year with 5.6 yards per carry, folks) I do believe the other three are realistic expectations. Minshew has shown himself to be an efficient, interception free passer, Chark is the deep threat to score, and Conley will quietly have a very productive and helpful season for this offense.
What do you think? Any of these predictions way off base? Any others you’d like to see? Let us know in the comments below!