The playoffs have been a roller coaster so far — one loss in the Wild Card round and one win in the Divisional round. We’re still in the green, but how long is that going to last today?
How do the AFC and NFL Championship games look and what are the best games to throw some money at? Let’s check it out!
Note: I used Bovada’s odds on Sunday morning.
Tennessee Titans (+7.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
What has this column become? I’m betting real, live American money on the Tennessee Titans to cover. Why? Because favorites in conference championship games are overwhelming bad against the spread when the line is a touchdown or more.
Here’s what Sporting News found:
Since 1999, there have been 16 conference championship games with a spread of six points or more and the favorite is 11-5 straight up and 5-11 ATS in those games. That bodes well for underdogs Green Bay and Tennessee, who are looking to pull off the upset and play for a Super Bowl title in Miami.
More than twice as often, the favorites can’t cover. I’ll take those odds.
Bet on the Titans to keep this close (or win outright).
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (Over 51.5)
Both of these teams are absolutely capable of running up the score (as evidenced by, well, last week) and while it sounds like the easy play on paper to say “under” because the Titans have a stout defense and rely on their ground game... Derrick Henry has averaged 5.9 yards per carry. They can get yards in bunches even on the ground, especially against a porous Chiefs run defense that allowed over 2,000 yards on the ground this season.
Bet on the Titans and Chiefs to score big today.
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
I know it’s Aaron Rodgers, but that 49ers team is an absolute machine. They dismantled Green Bay in their last meeting late in the season and didn’t allow the Packers even 200 yards of total offense.
Bet on the 49ers to win big.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers (Over 46.5)
There is no shortage of scoring in NFC Championship games historically. In the last 11 games, the total was under 46.5 points just four times. Today we have the 49ers which led the NFC in scoring and the Packers which put up 23.5 points per game this season.
Bet on the 49ers and Packers to rack up the scoring.
Overall: 39-36-1 (52.0%)
Bet Your Mortgage: 9-10-0 (47.3%)