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Shad's Khan Men, Part 1 - Restating The Past

It is a weird thing how much it feels like needs to be said, when practically nothing new has transpired. [In fact, much of this article is pulled directly from a draft from the last season (a history of half or no measures by ownership makes for repetitive storylines)].

As a "stats guy", the continued actions of our ownership are extremely perplexing, invalidate their direct comments, and beg several philosophical questions in the quest for catharsis.

The Jaguars "Always" Suck

This is a point that shouldn't be divisive, but given the history of BCC comments, usually is. However, since the Jaguar's joined the AFC South the distribution of winning percentages for the league's 32 teams informs the following:

Season W-L Result Descriptor of Season
0.4 "Shit"
0.5 "Below Average"
0.6 "Average"
0.7 "Above Average"
0.8 "Great!"


[2020 Clarification - This table was based on the following Histogram not previously included. One should read this table as "to be below this W-L percentage can be described as". For example, to be below .500 is below average or possibly shitty.]

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Now when we use these buckets to search for teams with the highest "Shit" season percentages in well over a decade, we get something like this:

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Since joining the AFC South, the Jaguars have been a bottom 3 of the league franchise in terms of on field results.

Shad Khan Enforces Sturgeon's Law

Sturgeon's Law is often times summarized down to the theory that 90% of [a given medium] is crap.

Well folks...since 2002...

Person(s) Responsible NFL "Shit" Season %
Shad Khan (Owner), et al. 88
Gene Smith ("GM" Executive), et al. 50
Dave Caldwell ("GM" Executive), et al. 100
Tom Coughlin ("GM" Executive), et al. 75
Kevin Costner (Head Coach), et al. 67
Gus Bradley (Head Coach), et al. 100
Doug Marrone (Head Coach), et al. 71

The results of 2019 were not "unusual circumstances", that specific level of ineptitude is the Shad Khan special.
["Wash, Rinse, Repeat" - mnkman322 reading this on November 2020's doorsteps]

Shad's Men

(Thoughts and Prayers to the Jags social media accounts, PR staff parallel/above them, and especially the folks trying to make rent working ticket renewals.) [In light of 2020, thoughts and prayers to everyone living in America, but especially those with bad sportsball teams].

Now is apparently not the time for change or accountability at the levels that can affect these results, and Shad Khan has made the executive decision to "stay the course" with a 100% NFL "Shit" season General Manager for team building, and a 71% NFL "Shit" season Head Coach.

The only message this could possibly be expected to send, is that Shad Khan actively wants to lose NFL games.

How could you logically sell fans on the existence of non-transparent plans to not produce "Shite" NFL seasons with mere communication between a 88% Shite Owner, 100% Shite Team Builder, and a 71% Shite Head Coach?

This unfortunately leads the fanbase to find their own individual interpretations as to why Shad Khan wants to lose.


[Fast forward to the 2020 season]

Bad Luck, Still Luck

Losing this many games in a row doesn't feel great, but maybe we are too emotional and should apply the same kind of critical thinking that was ignored in favor of basking in the results of 2017, to prevent from an equal but opposite feeling when you might not see 0.400 at the end of this season.

Teams usually go as their QB goes, with several of the available passer efficiency stats being the strongest correlations to team wins in the league. Points that are probably not so controversial now, but we are not far removed from a time where mock draft mindsets would be talking about Chuba/Etienne/Pooka as the way out of our current predicament (growth).

Now if we look at the team results for the group of QBs around Gardner in terms of Passer Rating, ANY/A, and DVOA% data for the 2020 season from Pro-Football-Reference.com and FootballOutsiders.com, we get the following:

Player Games QB Winz
Fitzmagic 6 3.0
Baker Mayfield 7 5.0
Gardner Minshew 7 1.0
Matthew Stafford 6 3.0
Kyler Murray 7 5.0
Expected W-L Mean to Regress Towards (Passer Rating) 0.515
Player Games QB Winz
Baker Mayfield 7 5.0
Kirk Cousins 6 1.0
Gardner Minshew 7 1.0
Joe Burrow 7 1.5
Dwayne Haskins 4 1.0
Expected W-L Mean to Regress Towards (ANY/A) 0.306
Player Games QB Winz
Baker Mayfield 7 5.0
Lamar Jackson 6 5.0
Gardner Minshew 7 1.0
Kirk Cousins 6 1.0
Nick Foles 4 2.0
Expected W-L Mean to Regress Towards (DVOA%) 0.467


With presumably 9 more games left to be played in 2020, and making no adjustments for the perceived strength of the Jaguars remaining opponents we might expect a team with a QB of Minshew's current production to be capable of winning around 3-4 more games, or about 7 wins on a 16 game season. Which yeah, isn't great, but it is a far more positive type of outcome than we have averaged in the years since Shad bought the team. There is also considerable value in having at least one capable option at backup QB moving forward.

Look on the Bright Side

Much like record setting unemployment or your boss's 401k, being at rock bottom tends to make falling upwards swiftly so easy, even Dave Caldwell could do it.

But you first have to start by removing the people who have proven track records of sinking the ships they captain before you can even hope to be relieved in the power of regression towards the mean. Let's assume Shad plans to finally take interest in his investment vehicle National Football League Franchise, and examine the similarities between his few possible interventions in the realm of coaching and management and what it could mean moving forward in Part 2.

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