The 2019-2020 NFL season has been one heck of a roller coaster. Tom Brady finished with the same number of playoff wins as Gardner Minshew, Lamar Jackson was electrifying as he captured a unanimous MVP vote, and the Jacksonville Jaguars gave me a good stretch of three or four weeks where I could easily bet on them not covering the spread.
Thanks, Nick Foles!
How does the Super Bowl look and where are we throwing our money today? Let’s check it out!
Note: I used Bovada’s odds on Sunday morning.
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
To put it simply, Kansas City is absolutely dominant when it comes to covering the spread recently. They’re 7-0-1 in their last eight games. They have the better quarterback, the better coaching, and the better offense.
The only thing that worries me is that San Francisco’s defense is dominant, especially their defensive line. But where they shine is their game planning.... specifically in manipulating the field to their advantage. Drew Magary over at Unnamed Temporary Sports Blog said it best this week:
The Niners, in contrast to the Chiefs, are built to MANIPULATE space all over the football field rather than seek it out. They run play action up the ass (and what a hilarious turn of events that the most influential offensive mind of the entire 2019 season was somehow Kyle Shanahan’s old man) to open up space for both long strikes down the field and for misdirection plays like wideout jet sweeps. On defense, they smother the QB with their front seven, then trick you into thinking that there are spaces open downfield before their safeties fly in and ruin your shit.
I’m going with the better team rather than the better schemers.
Bet on the Chiefs to win by more than a point.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers (Over 53.5)
This game is going to be everything last year’s Super Bowl wasn’t. I know we didn’t think a New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams game was going to be four quarters of melatonin with only a greased up Maroon 5 to break up the action, but we should have seen it coming.
Sean McVay was slowly imploding into his own Galaxy Brain-ness and Bill Belichick knew he had as dominant a defense as he’s ever had to shoulder some of the burden from an aging Tom Brady. We didn’t know, but we should have known it was gonna suck.
Andy Reid is going to give us an offensive bonanza while Kyle Shanahan plays catch up with a more-than-capable offense. The 49ers can (and probably will) will score on defense too. Let’s get nuts.
Bet on the Chiefs and 49ers to score big today.
Overall: 42-37-1 (53.2%)
Bet Your Mortgage: 9-11-0 (45.0%)