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The Jacksonville Jaguars are not going to win the Super Bowl. They’re not going to win a playoff game, much less go to the playoffs. But they’re going to end the season with something they’ve never gotten before...
The No. 1 overall draft pick.
That’s according to Seth Walder over at ESPN Analytics, who thinks the Jaguars are the only team who will end the year with fewer than five wins. They simulated the season 20,000 times and the Jaguars stink in almost every single on of them.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected wins: 4.9
Chance to reach playoffs: 4%
The Jacksonville Jaguars are rolling the dice on Gardner Minshew II under center, and FPI is not optimistic about it. The upside for Jacksonville? It is the most likely team to land the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL draft, with a 23% chance. The Washington Redskins, who just selected No. 2 in April, are the next highest with a 13% shot.
But even if the Jags don’t land the top pick, there’s a very good chance they’ll still land a top pick. There’s an 85% chance that Jacksonville, which is projected by FPI to win a league-low 4.9 games this season, is in the top 10 of next year’s draft.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence will be the No. 1 pick, either. Twelve months ago we assumed Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa would be the first pick in the 2020 draft. And 12 months before that we assumed USC’s Sam Darnold would go first in the 2018 class. Time will tell!
While I don’t think the Jaguars are some darkhorse powerhouse (I see them going 6-10 next year) picking them as the worst team in the league is a bit of an overreaction. Their defense, while young, is still serviceable. Their offense is bad until it’s good, but Gardner Minshew was the second-best rookie quarterback last year behind Kyler Murray.
Will they get a top-10 pick next year? Yes. Probably two if the Los Angeles Rams don’t do well either. But to put them in the Trevor Lawrence Sweepstakes without trading up isn’t the move.
What do you think? Will the Jaguars do as badly as ESPN thinks? Or will they sneak out a few more wins than they’re predicting? Let us know in the comments below!